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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #355,281
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:30am Dec 5, 2013 1:30am
Good Morning!
Today's S/R levels on MT4 Templates

EURO
CABLE
AUDUSD
EURJPY

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...45#post7135945
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #355,282
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:32am Dec 5, 2013 1:32am
My GU GMT+3 daily technikal analisys.

Bull trend continues, we see a Fakey buy setup to next resistance ~6523, invalidation at ~6317.
Add an other position above the resistance about ~6442 .

Have a good trade!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily.png Size: 36 KB
Anything is math!
  • #355,283
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:39am Dec 5, 2013 1:39am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} With the latest strength in the employment components of the PMI's, the lower jobless claims numbers and the strong ADP with previous revisions, I would not be surprised if we see an unemployment of 7.1% on Friday... add some manipulation to that and we could easily see 7.0%
Still short but my stop is 1.6410 fingers are tightly crossed
  • #355,284
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:46am Dec 5, 2013 1:46am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Still short but my stop is 1.6410 fingers are tightly crossed

your stop is too tight.You could be taken out easily then price turn in your direction without you.
One way to overcome this dilemma is to reduce lot size for greater mileage and bigger stops.
If you are too nervous then your position is too big.Go small and sleep better.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #355,285
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:58am Dec 5, 2013 1:58am
bearish pattern confirmed on the GBP/USD. short @1.6396
  • #355,286
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:58am Dec 5, 2013 1:58am
Quoting Davit
{quote} your stop is too tight.You could be taken out easily then price turn in your direction without you. One way to overcome this dilemma is to reduce lot size for greater mileage and bigger stops. If you are too nervous then your position is too big.Go small and sleep better. regards
Yes you are right on both counts,gone to manage now i will see how the news is this morning just need to get below 1.6390 then should be ok,i did not think it would get back to 1.64 but hey ho there ya go, thanks for the guide
  • #355,287
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:59am Dec 5, 2013 1:59am
Quoting _BBKing_
{quote} ye this nfp should give a lot of damages in the fx market... but in my opinion, soon the fed will come out saying "we are thinking to prepare a plan to eventually end the QE programme because blah blah" so not confirming anything at all... just to give a push. to test market strength once more that will be the day when fireworks start
if yesterday's market reaction was any clue to what may happen I think you may be correct. but i read an article saying britian wants to focus on exports now and that BoE will be ready to join the currency war race
  • #355,288
  • Dec 5, 2013 1:59am Dec 5, 2013 1:59am
I buy targeting 6437
In the end its just a stupid numbers game
  • #355,289
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:00am Dec 5, 2013 2:00am
Quoting giveachance
bearish pattern confirmed on the GBP/USD. short @1.6396
yo - got a chart? would like to see the pattern .
  • #355,290
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:06am Dec 5, 2013 2:06am
GU M15

Long scalp - following momentum
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gum15.PNG Size: 45 KB
  • #355,291
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:08am Dec 5, 2013 2:08am
Quoting elbert3
{quote} Yes you are right on both counts,gone to manage now i will see how the news is this morning just need to get below 1.6390 then should be ok,i did not think it would get back to 1.64 but hey ho there ya go, thanks for the guideness

you must be aware that banks,brokers actively target stops that are obvious and predicable such as 20-30 pips above below round numbers,fib major levels like 61.8 ,50% not a fib but important number,major S/R levels.
I trade without fix SL but have a target how much I am willing to tolerate.You could be 100% correct on every trade and still lose by tight SL's.
Anyway this is particularly true on News when volatility is rampant and erratic.
Best thing to do is wait and trade after news.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #355,292
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:12am Dec 5, 2013 2:12am
Quoting chazzle
GU M15 Long scalp - following momentum {image}
could be the soup kitchen for lunch today
  • #355,293
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:32am Dec 5, 2013 2:32am
Hi guys. Long time lurker here.

I am thinking about a theory. A while ago one the guys (sorry I don't remember who, may have been Piptrapper) kindly pointed to Oanda's Open Position Ratios (http://fxtrade.oanda.co.uk/analysis/...osition-ratios) to show percentage of long vs short positions at the moment. Digging around I found a tool that shows historical positions for each pair for up to a year. This is for the GU:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU Historical Net Positions.JPG Size: 45 KB

http://fxtrade.oanda.co.uk/analysis/...ical-positions

This shows a fairly faithful inverse correlation between price movement and net positions. Amazing really that most positions are wrong most of the time (if I interpret this correctly)

So been thinking about this for the last couple of days, and based on historical shifts in positions I am thinking that when price falls to below 1.62-1.625 (last major resistance) then we will see a shift from net short to net long and then the downturn momentum strengthens.

This may be just stupid hypothesis but would welcome thoughts.

For the sake of transparency I should say I am one of the herd in the red
  • #355,294
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:37am Dec 5, 2013 2:37am
GU H4 GMT+3

If recent bar could close above the wedge the pattern shows the correction was over and trend continues with tight invalidation price...
Never forget, the trend is your friend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh4.png Size: 84 KB
Anything is math!
  • #355,295
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:42am Dec 5, 2013 2:42am
Quoting Zr-fx
Digging around I found a tool that shows historical positions for each pair for up to a year.
would like to know if that's by volume or merely individual positions?
  • #355,296
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:49am Dec 5, 2013 2:49am
Quoting chazzle
{quote} would like to know if that's by volume or merely individual positions?
Good question. I don't think it clarifies that. Just says 'positions'.
  • #355,297
  • Dec 5, 2013 2:54am Dec 5, 2013 2:54am
Quoting Zr-fx
Hi guys. Long time lurker here. I am thinking about a theory. A while ago one the guys (sorry I don't remember who, may have been Piptrapper) kindly pointed to Oanda's Open Position Ratios (http://fxtrade.oanda.co.uk/analysis/...osition-ratios) to show percentage of long vs short positions at the moment. Digging around I found a tool that shows historical positions for each pair for up to a year. This is for the GU: {image} http://fxtrade.oanda.co.uk/analysis/...ical-positions This shows a fairly faithful inverse correlation...

The chart from onada is the result of retail traders positions. So retail traders are making trades opposite of the price movement of the big players. Is that correct? How much possibility that they show more shorts to induce retailers to short when in fact the price is moving up?

I am open to comments
  • #355,298
  • Dec 5, 2013 3:00am Dec 5, 2013 3:00am
Quoting kesk
{quote} The chart from onada is the result of retail traders positions. So retail traders are making trades opposite of the price movement of the big players. Is that correct? How much possibility that they show more shorts to induce retailers to short when in fact the price is moving up? I am open to comments
Are you saying the ratios are manipulated to induce retailers into a certain position? I doubt it. We know most retailers are wrong most of the time. Don't we?
  • #355,299
  • Dec 5, 2013 3:01am Dec 5, 2013 3:01am
Quoting Zr-fx
{quote} Good question. I don't think it clarifies that. Just says 'positions'.
if it's not by volume, personally , I wouldn't pay much attention to it - a COT chart would be better
  • #355,300
  • Dec 5, 2013 3:07am Dec 5, 2013 3:07am
Quoting chazzle
GU M15 Long scalp - following momentum {image}
I am still using yesterdays idea we need to pass !.6350
the !.6305 then i think could go as far as !.6198 put my stop back in i have to stick to my rules a break of 1.6420 will go long but then we have the news todaywe could be heros or broken soilders
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