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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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  • #71,261
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:33pm Dec 4, 2013 1:33pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} No. Bias problem has been gone for a while. I do have a mid to long term bias which is USD positive, but it will not affect my trading. I will just follow price like I always did before I developed that Euro bearish bias and allowed it to cloud my judgement. I am back to normal now
Nah - I am always hope the best for you,do some charity if you close some profits in this end of december
  • #71,262
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:36pm Dec 4, 2013 1:36pm
Anyone watching Oil? Could be moving
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...ster-says.html
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #71,263
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:36pm Dec 4, 2013 1:36pm
Quoting DailyChart
{quote} Nah - I am always hope the best for you,do some charity if you close some profits in this end of december
Thank you

I always do, even if I have no profit.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,264
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:37pm Dec 4, 2013 1:37pm
How about this ascending Multi-Channel range that eur/usd is sitting right in the middle just before Draghi & nfp

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily.png Size: 89 KB


Looking at the H4 we could break either way so it would be nice to get some pips from that breakout

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh4.png Size: 83 KB
"Frankly, I don't see markets; I see risks, rewards, and money." Larry Hite
  • #71,265
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:38pm Dec 4, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Thank you I always do, even if I have no profit.
Amen - May God bless you and family always
  • #71,266
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:39pm Dec 4, 2013 1:39pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Anyone watching Oil? Could be moving http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...ster-says.html
Well I am pretty sure that Saudi Arabia and Israel will NOT be investing in Iran.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,267
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:40pm Dec 4, 2013 1:40pm
Quoting DailyChart
{quote} Amen - May God bless you and family always
God bless you and yours also.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,268
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:41pm Dec 4, 2013 1:41pm
Quoting AlienOvichO
How about this ascending Multi-Channel range that eur/usd is sitting right in the middle just before Draghi & nfp {image} Looking at the H4 we could break either way so it would be nice to get some pips from that breakout {image}
That tells me that no matter what Draghi says tomorrow, the market will move... or maybe the move is reserved for NFP. Tomorrow we find out. Remember that we also get a rate statement from Carney.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,269
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:42pm Dec 4, 2013 1:42pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Well I am pretty sure that Saudi Arabia and Israel will NOT be investing in Iran.
Dunno, like a year ago, we were going on bets US will bomb down first Syria and then Iran. Seems they run out of bombs, so trying to buy .
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #71,270
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:46pm Dec 4, 2013 1:46pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} That tells me that no matter what Draghi says tomorrow, the market will move... or maybe the move is reserved for NFP. Tomorrow we find out. Remember that we also get a rate statement from Carney.
The move is coming no matter what that's for sure
"Frankly, I don't see markets; I see risks, rewards, and money." Larry Hite
  • #71,271
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:46pm Dec 4, 2013 1:46pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Well if you are right about 1500, then the USD must be in for one hell of a beating, driving Euro and Cable to new dizzy heights (before the crash to 1.10/15). Whilst I do have 1.42 to 1.44 in mind as a possibility for the Euro, I do know that it is too early to call it. You, however, seem quite convicted. I do know that you will flip with the sentiment so I obviously don't have to tell you to watch your bias. Time will tell if you are right or not. For me it doesn't matter. Whichever way it goes, I will follow
1.44 is hell of an area, but it also could try to test 4950's highs just for a good measure, as really KEY highs remains at 5140s.
I'm fairly conviced because same story is developing all over the place: the timing, current placement and potential for the next movement.. Aussie, Pound, CHF, Gold..
Yen.. Oghh Yen will make everyone wonder about how it managed to reverse so agressively... It giving striong sginals right now of upcoming bearish reversal with more than a thousand pips of potential. There was a possibility for a run up in to 104 first, but now seems that retracement already started..

December 18th is a date, when all of them must be already way off their respective rejection points, to make risk limits large enough for a new participants to hesitate to trade or to cut positions early on the way up.. Basically - one good week left and it seems unlikely for Gold (or EUro, Aussie, Pound, Yen) to make another (deeper) leg down and back again untill then.. Prob will either hang at roundabaouts or slowly climb further with todays direction..

On the last note - all the developments are part of the huge correction. And corrections, quite often fail to reach their targets... So, picking top for Euro wont be an easy task..
69
  • #71,272
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:47pm Dec 4, 2013 1:47pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Dunno, like a year ago, we were going on bets US will bomb down first Syria and then Iran. Seems they run out of bombs, so trying to buy .
HaHa. Maybe they can keep some of the chemical weapons they take from Syria and also maybe Iran will sell them nuclear missiles at a discount.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,273
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:51pm Dec 4, 2013 1:51pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} HaHa. Maybe they can keep some of the chemical weapons they take from Syria and also maybe Iran will sell them nuclear missiles at a discount.
Yeh, well they want to produce 4Mil barrels a day, so could make packages. If you buy enough Oil, you get one extra Christmas nuke .
edit: btw, averaged 1,35922, classically overleveraged like idiot, GBP averaged 6398.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #71,274
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:51pm Dec 4, 2013 1:51pm
USDJPY should be expected to struggle taking out highs of the year, the daily chart looks ominous of a double top but the market is well invested in yen shorts and I doubt they will give up easily. Looks like most pull backs are bought, I am hoping to see 101.50 and get into some fresh longs.

Just will go with the bull U/J trend unless theres some huge risk off event.
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #71,275
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:52pm Dec 4, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} 1.44 is hell of an area, but it also could try to test 4950's highs just for a good measure, as really KEY highs remains at 5140s. I'm fairly conviced because same story is developing all over the place: the timing, current placement and potential for the next movement.. Aussie, Pound, CHF, Gold.. Yen.. Oghh Yen will make everyone wonder about how it managed to reverse so agressively... It giving striong sginals right now of upcoming bearish reversal with more than a thousand pips of potential. There was a possibility for a run up in to 104 first, but now seems that retracement already started.. December 18th is a date, when all of them must be already way off their respective rejection points, to make risk limits large enough for a new participants to hesitate to trade or to cut positions early on the way up.. Basically - one good week left and it seems unlikely for Gold (or EUro, Aussie, Pound, Yen) to make another (deeper) leg down and back again untill then.. Prob will either hang at roundabaouts or slowly climb further with todays direction..
Interesting perspective. I look forward to seeing it all play out and how the underlying macro conditions relate to the price moves. If it happens like you say, then this will be a good education for me in how the world can so easily go to hell in a hand basket.

Quoting Likerty
{quote}On the last note - all the developments are part of the huge correction. And corrections, quite often fail to reach their targets... So, picking top for Euro wont be an easy task..
No need to pick a top on anything. Let the market pick the top and then we will follow.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,276
  • Dec 4, 2013 1:56pm Dec 4, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting AlienOvichO
{quote} The move is coming no matter what that's for sure
Yep. This is going to be fun... I hope.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,277
  • Dec 4, 2013 2:25pm Dec 4, 2013 2:25pm
Quoting infinitus
http://www.actionforex.com/analysis/...x+%28ALL%29%29 ECB Preview: Mind the Inflation Gap
EUR/USD has diverged from its yield spread

This is very interesting, but I have a theory why.

Yield differentials between EZ and US (US Positive) have taken a back seat to the yield differentials between Japan and EZ (EZ Positive).
Also, forecasted yield differentials between US and UK have turned UK positive which supports more Euro gains due to capital flows on the premise that what is good for UK has to be good for EZ.
It would be a truly sad story for the Eurozone and UK economies if their respective currencies launched a rip roaring rally to new multi-year highs, but such is life in a CB manipulated market. I hope the US becomes more Hawkish for the sake of the whole world, because until they do, the economy in the US will continue to sputter waiting for a signal from the Fed that all is okay... and the rest of the G10 economies will not benefit until Americans start buying foreign products again.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71,278
  • Dec 4, 2013 4:36pm Dec 4, 2013 4:36pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yo, just for the record, Netherlands got downgraded. Seems agencies think" we" are too high. What a surprise.
Miss understood the "we" bro
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #71,279
  • Dec 4, 2013 4:42pm Dec 4, 2013 4:42pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Yo, just for the record, Netherlands got downgraded. Seems agencies think we are too high. What a surprise.
Greece upgraded and Netherlands downgraded to offset the move..............the games the agencies play..........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #71,280
  • Dec 4, 2013 4:45pm Dec 4, 2013 4:45pm
Quoting Avir
{quote} Miss understood the "we" bro
Well I consider myself European . We, is Europe. High on hopium to be precise. Wonder how much will it cost me till it finally corrects.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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