The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
- #71,242
- Dec 4, 2013 8:18am Dec 4, 2013 8:18am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
{quote} Okay I see what you mean, but how about this... Taper fears are causing equities to liquidate and bonds do not look so attractive when the US treasury market seems to be on the precipice of a rout (higher yields). So perhaps gold looks like an alternate safe haven. Maybe? Regardless I do not see this upmove as a leading indicator that risk assets are about to start a fresh rally... except for maybe the Aussie? It does look ripe for a short squeeze.
As for the safe haven thing, I thought that was Bitcoins limelight now
Officer ... I swear to drunk I am not God 
- #71,244
- Dec 4, 2013 8:38am Dec 4, 2013 8:38am
- Joined Dec 2012 | Status: Trader | 8,124 Posts
{quote} We have to make some sense out of this and I am actually allowing for what you are saying as the one of the possible explanations, but the move started well before any US data was released, my money is on a data leak, and it most probably will come from housing. As for the safe haven thing, I thought that was Bitcoins limelight now
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
- #71,245
- Dec 4, 2013 8:46am Dec 4, 2013 8:46am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} We have to make some sense out of this and I am actually allowing for what you are saying as the one of the possible explanations, but the move started well before any US data was released, my money is on a data leak, and it most probably will come from housing. As for the safe haven thing, I thought that was Bitcoins limelight now
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #71,246
- Dec 4, 2013 9:05am Dec 4, 2013 9:05am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Excellent analysis Mario 
Longs definitely have a case to continue buying dips, however through out this entire side ways chopping the past month the daily chart has basically made a lower low. We could potentially be starting a down trend technically. Fundamentally the sentiment has a huge chance to shift within the next 48 hours, especially if BLS offical labor numbers confirm what ADP just said. Theres always two sides of the market, but those calling for 1.3625 should know that that level did NOT trade precisely because it there was always a wall off offers at 1.361x. Discretionary hedge funds and corproates look at a charts too, they usually are decent at picking levels to sell and they chose that area for a reason. I imagine dealer order books currently have a decent amount of stops above 1.3625, but those are so far away this point that they are not even in play. Anything can happen and we have see the EURUSD blast back every time on recent declines. However this time there is broad based USD strength in the wake of a key data a print. A sudden reversal above 1.3625 would take an overall sentiment shift at this point which would only be caused if Draghi came out super hawkish or if NFP mises massively. watch 1.3525-1.3535
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #71,248
- Dec 4, 2013 9:23am Dec 4, 2013 9:23am
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Trader | 2,004 Posts
{quote} Gold heading up to my shorting sweet spot around 1270/1280Still a long way to go but I'm getting excited
69
- #71,250
- Dec 4, 2013 9:41am Dec 4, 2013 9:41am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
Hi, really nice thread you have here guys, especially thanks to PT, i've been reading for some time. Just added some shorts on E/U based on euro weakness(broke trendline on euro index but having still some support) and dollar strength(ADP nr). Waiting EUR/USD to bounce after touching trendline and fibo area and add again after that. All relatively small positions as speculating before FED and NFP data but at the moment again seems very bearish that nasty pair. I am short on gold also with SL around 1243 200ema,trendline,supply level before that...
Look forward to your continued posts. :nerd:
Cheers
PT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #71,251
- Dec 4, 2013 9:43am Dec 4, 2013 9:43am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} If it establishes back above 1250's after such deep dive - I'll be looking to long again..
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #71,253
- Dec 4, 2013 11:47am Dec 4, 2013 11:47am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} I hope you are long USDCAD might see that 1.10 you are always on about!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #71,254
- Dec 4, 2013 11:56am Dec 4, 2013 11:56am
- Joined May 2010 | Status: Trader | 2,004 Posts
{quote} {image}
I closed my shorts at NY opening and loaded longs.. 
LL below 1180's should happened prior FOMC and supposedly with good/better NFP as a catalyst.. But ADP did its job for liquidity hunt...
As it bounced so strongly, seems bullish correction for 1500 is starting right now
69
- #71,255
- Dec 4, 2013 11:59am Dec 4, 2013 11:59am
- Joined Mar 2012 | Status: Gold anyone | 6,524 Posts
{quote} {image}
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
- #71,256
- Dec 4, 2013 12:20pm Dec 4, 2013 12:20pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} STill looking forward for that shorting oportunity..?
Whilst I do have 1.42 to 1.44 in mind as a possibility for the Euro, I do know that it is too early to call it. You, however, seem quite convicted. I do know that you will flip with the sentiment so I obviously don't have to tell you to watch your bias.
Time will tell if you are right or not. For me it doesn't matter. Whichever way it goes, I will follow
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #71,257
- Dec 4, 2013 1:02pm Dec 4, 2013 1:02pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
US Beige book was neutral, so obviously it's Euro bullish
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #71,258
- Dec 4, 2013 1:21pm Dec 4, 2013 1:21pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
US Beige book was neutral, so obviously it's Euro bullish
http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...k_20131204.pdf
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #71,259
- Dec 4, 2013 1:24pm Dec 4, 2013 1:24pm
- Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Trader | 2,387 Posts
{quote} Well if you are right about 1500, then the USD must be in for one hell of a beating, driving Euro and Cable to new dizzy heights (before the crash to 1.10/15). Whilst I do have 1.42 to 1.44 in mind as a possibility for the Euro, I do know that it is too early to call it. You, however, seem quite convicted. I do know that you will flip with the sentiment so I obviously don't have to tell you to watch your bias. Time will tell if you are right or not. For me it doesn't matter. Whichever way it goes, I will follow
Just Kidding
- #71,260
- Dec 4, 2013 1:29pm Dec 4, 2013 1:29pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} so no more bias ?
I do have a mid to long term bias which is USD positive, but it will not affect my trading.
I will just follow price like I always did before I developed that Euro bearish bias and allowed it to cloud my judgement.
I am back to normal now
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it