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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #355,201
  • Dec 4, 2013 6:47am Dec 4, 2013 6:47am
Quoting chonchy
{quote} ...... Long time no see you sir. nice to see you , happy holidays.......

Hi Chonchy, Sir.
It's been a while indeed.
Hope everything's going the way you want it.
Happy Holidays to you as well, my friend.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #355,202
  • Dec 4, 2013 6:59am Dec 4, 2013 6:59am
Quoting tradoholic
{quote} HI Global, I agree with you there, but I need a weekly candle close above the 1.650 to go with it. Either way there will be a pull back to the UTL. Bit dicey at the moment, but I am short from 1.6410
Hi Trado,

Good trade!

1.6450 barrier was well defended during the last two attempts to break it,

however market responding positively to sub F/C PMI which is supportive to the bulls.

Maybe third time is the charm...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #355,203
  • Dec 4, 2013 7:24am Dec 4, 2013 7:24am
and again: an event-driven volatility breakout - 20 pips in 1 minute. 215 k, the labor market in the us makes an earlier tapering more likely
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #355,204
  • Dec 4, 2013 7:31am Dec 4, 2013 7:31am
daily already suggested consolidation and perhaps coming to the end of the uptrend (the last high is the extension of 261 fibo from about 4820 - 5440) .. let's see how far this downtrend can go..
  • #355,205
  • Dec 4, 2013 7:35am Dec 4, 2013 7:35am
Quoting A-speculator
daily already suggested consolidation and perhaps coming to the end of the uptrend.. let's see how far this downtrend can go..
If 6240 gives way, then 6160 where I suspect there will be loads of demand. Probably a good spot to load long for a nice counter trend trade (in the daily/weekly context) to retest the highs, but ultimately I am still thinking 1.57/1.55 area before any serious upside.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #355,206
  • Dec 4, 2013 7:38am Dec 4, 2013 7:38am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} If 6240 gives way, then 6160 where I suspect there will be loads of demand. Probably a good spot to load long for a nice counter trend trade to retest the highs, but ultimately I am still thinking 1.57/1.55 area before any serious upside.
yeah maybe.. atm i'm playing with short.. will see if possible to change drection when the price gets there..relying on PA of course.
  • #355,207
  • Dec 4, 2013 7:38am Dec 4, 2013 7:38am
Quoting A-speculator
{quote} yeah maybe.. atm i'm playing with short.. will see if possible to change drection when the price gets there.. PA of course.
Absolutely
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #355,208
  • Dec 4, 2013 7:42am Dec 4, 2013 7:42am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Absolutely
6240 area as you suggested is possible resistance turned support.. if we manage go get through (breakout) there's possibly also a breakout on the uptrend channel hence maybe we still in the range in the higher TF. Same goes to fiber and swissy (the possiblity in change of the trend)
  • #355,209
  • Dec 4, 2013 7:43am Dec 4, 2013 7:43am
Updated.

Now that services PMI has printed lower , I assume attention will turn to the next CPI print. The last one was a significant miss and it will be interesting to see the impact the recent run up in sterling has had on inflation. Last CPI print was when GBP was trading in the 1.5950 area.
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Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #355,210
  • Dec 4, 2013 7:58am Dec 4, 2013 7:58am
i vote sell at gbpusd because up touch 261.8% fibonacci...
  • #355,211
  • Dec 4, 2013 8:05am Dec 4, 2013 8:05am
Quoting A-speculator
{quote} 6240 area as you suggested is possible resistance turned support.. if we manage go get through (breakout) there's possibly also a breakout on the uptrend channel hence maybe we still in the range in the higher TF. Same goes to fiber and swissy (the possiblity in change of the trend)
I might add that depending on how you draw the triangle resistance, we might still be within it.
Also, the triangle will only be technically invalidated if the C wave (at 1.6744) is breached.

G/U Weekly with E/W count.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #355,212
  • Dec 4, 2013 8:07am Dec 4, 2013 8:07am
Looks like I'm the only bull in the house.

1.6333
Truely bargain prices!
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #355,213
  • Dec 4, 2013 8:08am Dec 4, 2013 8:08am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I might add that depending on how you draw the triangle resistance, we might still be within it. Also, the triangle will only be technically invalidated if the C wave (at 1.6744) is breached. G/U Weekly with E/W count. {image}
i don't think we will go any higher as long as 261 fibo hold.. i think the move up is just a shakeout in higher TF..
  • #355,214
  • Dec 4, 2013 8:09am Dec 4, 2013 8:09am
Quoting GlobalMacro
Looks like I'm the only bull in the house. 1.6333 Truely bargain prices!
You're right. Based on current sentiment, 6330 is cheap, but we still have two more days of risk events which can seriously change that sentiment.

In the meantime, by all means scalp the heck out of it with tight stops and high RRR
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #355,215
  • Dec 4, 2013 8:11am Dec 4, 2013 8:11am
Quoting A-speculator
{quote} i don't think we will go any higher as long as 261 fibo hold.. i think the move up is just a shakeout in higher TF..
According to E/W theory, the E wave of a triangle seldom hits the trend line, so you may very well be correct. Besides with the way US sentiment seems to be shifting, it looks like a very good possibility that NFP is going to blow away all the risk assets... including Cable to some extent.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #355,216
  • Dec 4, 2013 8:19am Dec 4, 2013 8:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} According to E/W theory, the E wave of a triangle seldom hits the trend line, so you may very well be correct. Besides with the way US sentiment seems to be shifting, it looks like a very good possibility that NFP is going to blow away all the risk assets... including Cable to some extent.
First hurdle coming up 1.6302 then 1.6259
  • #355,217
  • Dec 4, 2013 8:22am Dec 4, 2013 8:22am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} According to E/W theory, the E wave of a triangle seldom hits the trend line, so you may very well be correct. Besides with the way US sentiment seems to be shifting, it looks like a very good possibility that NFP is going to blow away all the risk assets... including Cable to some extent.
If you are basing your analysis on EW theory, you must very well know that 261 fibo is usually the wave 5.. meaning we might have a,b,c retracement or change of trend..
  • #355,218
  • Dec 4, 2013 8:22am Dec 4, 2013 8:22am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} You're right. Based on current sentiment, 6330 is cheap, but we still have two more days of risk events which can seriously change that sentiment. In the meantime, by all means scalp the heck out of it with tight stops and high RRR
Actually I'm looking for more than just a quick scalp.

1.6450 still needs to prove how serious of a barrier it is as the uncertainty caused by this weeks's event risks subsides.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #355,219
  • Dec 4, 2013 8:33am Dec 4, 2013 8:33am
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Actually I'm looking for more than just a quick scalp. 1.6450 still needs to prove how serious of a barrier it is as the uncertainty caused by this weeks's event risks subsides.
I never say never.
Best of luck regardless of how it plays out. I'm sure you'll know when to get out if things get rough.

Cheers
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #355,220
  • Dec 4, 2013 8:34am Dec 4, 2013 8:34am
Quoting A-speculator
{quote} If you are basing your analysis on EW theory, you must very well know that 261 fibo is usually the wave 5.. meaning we might have a,b,c retracement or change of trend..


Fibo levels are only a guide... not a hard set rule.
Granted I also think we have reached a top, but now we have to see how 6240 reacts... then I'll have a better clue.
I'm still leaning towards 6160 area though.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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