Circular Trendlines

EUR/USD Outlook

Given the strong rebound off the 3800 level, the authenticity of the blue trendline in the chart below is further confirmed. A drop to 3300 is a given outcome, seeing the way that this pair has bounced down from the blue curve.

Hi Kambooj,

Thank you once again for this analysis. Don't be too hard on yourself. The market has been very difficult and certainly nothing like I have experience in the last 13 years of trading.

Your analysis is crucial to those of us following you.

Continued success to you.

Good weekend too. (I believe it was raining cats and dogs yesterday?)

Thanks for offering up your wave counts and sorry for the late reply.

First off, great charts.

Looks like your anticipated scenario has started off. I must admit, the strength of the downmove from 1.38 to 1.35 has been a surprise and is very concerning to my favored scenario, which is kind of similar to your first one. Thanks again for your input, it's really invaluable.

EUR/USD Outlook
This pair has hit a important support level as shown by the red circle on the daily chart. Given 5 days after the 3300 level was hit, there is no further desire for this pair to pursue any lower than 3300 for now until its retracement is completed. This retracement can go as high as 3550/3600 as shown on the H8 chart and M30. Buy Zone is around 3340 and should happen sometime soon

EUR/USD Outlook
A Drop to 3340-50 is in the works, but we might see lower lows if the drop is severe.

very good . i am short too mate

Kambooj it is really amazing to see your chart studies , and it makes sense how geometry is useful to measure the nature of the price + time . As a trader who is inspired by your studies I have a different perspective on EURUSD which shows me 1,4250 as a possible target for 3-4 weeks time period. I draw circles , centered on different coordinates on the chart and mark the intersections of circles or trendlines as energy points which act as magnets. And 1,4250 is a strong magnet. But I shud admit that a 750 pips (approximately) journey sounds like utopia for now.

http://img837.imageshack.us/img837/3484/itle.png

http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/7972/42vp.png

On the other side the trend from 1,2747 to 1,3831 has retraced to %50 level and used it as a bounce-up zone.

http://img203.imageshack.us/img203/3843/sc6s.png

For now bulls seem to be stronger , also negative correlation with USDCHF confirms the uptrend in EURUSD. Time will show everything... but I guess it will be green in the following 3-4 weeks ...

Lookiing for a possible move to the upside in the next hour. However, the previous hourly candle brings concern.

There was movement, just not in the intended direction.

EUR/USD Outlook


Thanks for both of your inputs.

Its been 15 days that the pair has gone into a uptrend since it hit 3400, and it has only made about a 200 pip slow movement during this period.

The trend was not very strong during these days and as a result I usually stay away from trading and forecasting until I see something worthwhile coming our way.

Due to the overall view from the weekly chart that I had posted earlier:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...93#post7015393

I dont see this pair making greater progress than what it is doing right now, and soon we should be seeing 3000 / 3100 by end of december.

3000/3100 will remain the starting point for next year decision to make a sizable move, but on a weekly chart view the main trend I belive it to be a downward movement towards the 2000 level. Right now its making its last attempts to keep its head above the water from sinking lower, but this currency pair is a sinking ship in its overall perspective.

Its just a matter of time before a really huge surge will put this pair well below the 3000 level. For this reason I am hesitant to buy this pair at the anywhere above 3000/3100. Even if it makes a up move, it is not sustainable.

The drop from 3614 right at the new moon (ie December 2nd) was what I was trying to see. I had waited 2 cycles of the moon to see what this pair will do. On the second cycle, namely today, I believe this drop will start a new series of drops that will catapult themselves to lower levels.

Usually if a market is very unpredictable, then trading in between the moon cycles is risky, so the best days to even see what will happen is +/- 1 day close to a cycle. If anything happens during that time it puts more clarity on the situation. If not, then wait another week.

At least that is my approach.

Sell opportunities should come up shortly at 3560-70 levels.

EUR Update

Here is another view from the weekly chart denoting lower lows...

Merry Christmas Everybody,

I will be off monitoring the market unit new year,
want to wish everybody a Merry Christmas and a good year to come.

I was waiting and waiting for some clear cut move to happen during the past 3 weeks, and nothing has really materialized.

As for the next couple of weeks, dont see any major moves either, other than being stuck in a 150 pip zone between 3500 and 3650

Dear Kambooj,

First of all a great "thank you" for your diligence this past year. Has been a difficult year, but you made it better for which I thank you.

Wishing you and your loved-ones Blessings for Christmas and may 2014 bring you His abundance.

Sincerely,

EUR/USD Outlook


Back from a long wait, and the longest non trading duration that I have ever been away from trading due to market conditions.

Basically the second half of december is usually wild moves and a direction for this pair usually does not really get set until after the first Non Farm Payroll date after the new year. The first Non Farm Payroll announcement was the 10th of January and since then I still had to wait a bit longer to make sure that any presumptions that I could have about the direction of this pair will be leveled out, so that I may do a better job of getting the direction right.

The NFP put a Jolt in this pair in the upward direction which was not sustainable and movement resumed downwards again after Tuesday January 14th, but has not been very promising.

So finally I believe that this pair still is not yet ready to make its final plunge without seeing one more high this year along the 4000/4100 region.

This conclusion comes primarily after seeing the quality of the bounce off the pole region shown on the daily chart, specially the one on December 27th. If the pole region of cricle#1 had been a region where a bounce downwards would have occured, we should have seen 3300 very easily, but this phenomenon was not seen. This only helps to conclude that we will either have a tripple high or a major break of the 3800 level.

A major break of the 3800 level is what this pair will do, however there is a alternate scenario that its not shown on my chart, but deals with a triangular zone with one more spike slightly above 3800, and then a reversal, but this scenario has got missing pieces which still are not clear, and because of that its not shown in my chart.


Since motion usually finds resistance at either the perimeter of a circle or its center, there is still room to move up for this pair to get close to the perimeter of circle #2 and / or the center of circle #3.

Right now its a good spot to go long on this pair.

Thanks for your vision, I believe you are very correct.

Well , I feel honoured for being confirmed by the master ...

For now I also am bearish on this pair , but I think that the whole bullish trend is not completed yet. It will be completed when the 1,618 circle is touched , the timing is a mystery to me at the moment. The price is floating down just above the red circular support which is a strong one. The next energy point seems to be around 1,3260s (3-7 March) , which has the possibility to be touched.

http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/8443/6a42.png

I hope we all will have green pips at the end of this unclarity , Regards ...

EUR Update
Here is the weekly chart perspective, very close to a surprise thrust upwards...

EUR/USD Outlook

The EUR Buy Signal is still in place for the region of 3550-3650.
Strong spike upwards is expected.

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Glad to see you back Kambooj.

Continued success to you.

Nice talking to you, I try to only post when I feel we will be close to a good size move.

Good Luck Trading