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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #355,041
  • Dec 1, 2013 7:01pm Dec 1, 2013 7:01pm
Japanese buying up more more Sterling denominated assets... and that seemed like real money in action.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #355,042
  • Dec 1, 2013 7:06pm Dec 1, 2013 7:06pm
Currently at 38.2% retracement of this current swing with dynamic balance points acting as support. Time to reload longs? Maybe.
Best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, second best is now
  • #355,043
  • Dec 1, 2013 7:07pm Dec 1, 2013 7:07pm
Quoting horuxito
Currently at 38.2% retracement of this current swing with dynamic balance points acting as support. Time to reload longs? Maybe.
Maybe, but I will be waiting for London open before making any decisions.
I'm already long from 1.6242 and 1.6333 anyway, so I'm good.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #355,044
  • Dec 1, 2013 7:09pm Dec 1, 2013 7:09pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Maybe, but I will be waiting for London open before making any decisions. I'm already long from 1.6242 and 1.6333 anyway, so I'm good.
Damn you are good! Reloading now is more risky.

And since price didn't come back to my line in the sand, I'm out for the moment.
Best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, second best is now
  • #355,045
  • Dec 1, 2013 7:10pm Dec 1, 2013 7:10pm
Quoting iNSIELD
something dosent feel right about that hour candle if this is a breakout are we going to see what we saw last yr about this time
Yes last December was very bullish Cable... and this year we've already busted through the Jan1 high.
However, 1.6550 is where I draw the line for this push up until we get a nice pullback. I definitely will not be looking to add any significant longs from this level. Just little ones to supplement my big one at 6242.

So, turnaround points look likely to be between 6450 and 6550 somewhere.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #355,046
  • Dec 1, 2013 7:17pm Dec 1, 2013 7:17pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes last December was very bullish Cable... and this year we've already busted through the Jan1 high. However, 1.6550 is where I draw the line for this push up until we get a nice pullback. I definitely will not be looking to add any significant longs from this level. Just little ones to supplement my big one at 6242. So, turnaround points look likely to be between 6450 and 6550 somewhere.
Yes, I have 6450/70 for short term turning point. Any big figure beyond that I don't see it happening today.

We are currently trading at Weekly resistance (with just a few hours after the open) and today's second resistance.
Best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, second best is now
  • #355,047
  • Dec 1, 2013 7:23pm Dec 1, 2013 7:23pm
I see a short term reversal here soon down near the bottom of the standard deviation channel.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: SDChannel.JPG Size: 244 KB
  • #355,048
  • Dec 1, 2013 7:24pm Dec 1, 2013 7:24pm
at current rate of increase even 1.75 or 1.80 is in play(very long term resistance)

it is increasing at a very fast rate of around ~70 pips a day
  • #355,049
  • Dec 1, 2013 7:29pm Dec 1, 2013 7:29pm
Quoting Baggi
I see a short term reversal here soon down near the bottom of the standard deviation channel. {image}
We are in an area of short term reversal, but the problem with regression channels is that if you place them right at the last candle you have the boundary telling you to short, but is because is the highest price you have so far. If price gets down to 1.6410/15 in the current swing I will go long. If it goes to 1.6450 I'm short. Right now I'm nothing. Bull and Bear tuxedo in the wardrobe.
Best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, second best is now
  • #355,050
  • Dec 1, 2013 7:37pm Dec 1, 2013 7:37pm
Quoting horuxito
{quote} We are in an area of short term reversal, but the problem with regression channels is that if you place them right at the last candle you have the boundary telling you to short, but is because is the highest price you have so far. If price gets down to 1.6410/15 in the current swing I will go long. If it goes to 1.6450 I'm short. Right now I'm nothing. Bull and Bear tuxedo in the wardrobe.

I'm not sure what you mean by that.

This is a standard deviation channel. I've had it on my chart since a week or so ago when we began this uptrend. The upper bound and the lower bound with both crossed at different times, but as the trend continues, the bands widen out. This channel was not drawn to the highest point. And as you can see if you view the larger picture, the highest point actually crosses the uppermost band, which happens in standard deviation channels.

It's just a mean, it's not a trendline.
  • #355,051
  • Dec 1, 2013 7:42pm Dec 1, 2013 7:42pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} I'm not sure what you mean by that. This is a standard deviation channel. I've had it on my chart since a week or so ago when we began this uptrend. The upper bound and the lower bound with both crossed at different times, but as the trend continues, the bands widen out. This channel was not drawn to the highest point. And as you can see if you view the larger picture, the highest point actually crosses the uppermost band, which happens in standard deviation channels. It's just a mean, it's not a trendline.
What I mean is that if we get to 1.6450/80 before having the reversal is going to widen out a little bit more.

ADR(10) is 88 pips. So far today we have 74, so we are like yeah, a shorting area. Let's see how it goes...
Best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, second best is now
  • #355,052
  • Dec 1, 2013 7:51pm Dec 1, 2013 7:51pm
Quoting horuxito
{quote} What I mean is that if we get to 1.6450/80 before having the reversal is going to widen out a little bit more. ADR(10) is 88 pips. So far today we have 74, so we are like yeah, a shorting area. Let's see how it goes...
Agreed. This is definitely either a shorting area or a "sit on hands" area. It would be suicide to buy here. Need pullback to support, and then we see.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #355,053
  • Dec 1, 2013 8:03pm Dec 1, 2013 8:03pm
Quoting PipTrapper
Japanese buying up more more Sterling denominated assets... and that seemed like real money in action.
does not look like real money in action. it would make more sense for real money to be in action when London opens so that there would be more liquidity in Sterling.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #355,054
  • Dec 1, 2013 8:05pm Dec 1, 2013 8:05pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} does not look like real money in action. it would make more sense for real money to be in action when London opens so that there would be more liquidity in Sterling.
Yes it would make more sense, but who said the markets make any sense nowadays
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #355,055
  • Dec 1, 2013 8:14pm Dec 1, 2013 8:14pm
New monthly Pivots are so Crazy on GU?!
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FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #355,056
  • Dec 1, 2013 8:17pm Dec 1, 2013 8:17pm
No time to retrace!
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #355,057
  • Edited 9:15pm Dec 1, 2013 8:21pm | Edited 9:15pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes it would make more sense, but who said the markets make any sense nowadays
Im watching GJ, to see if the 38.2% fib at 168.32 can cap it or not.
UJ might drop to 101.3 and bounce to 103.7.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #355,058
  • Dec 1, 2013 8:27pm Dec 1, 2013 8:27pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes it would make more sense, but who said the markets make any sense nowadays
It is clear that some yen is being converted to both euro and pound.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #355,059
  • Dec 1, 2013 9:37pm Dec 1, 2013 9:37pm
Quoting horuxito
{quote} What I mean is that if we get to 1.6450/80 before having the reversal is going to widen out a little bit more. ADR(10) is 88 pips. So far today we have 74, so we are like yeah, a shorting area. Let's see how it goes...

Actually, it doesn't matter if it goes up or down or sideways. Each time an hour goes by (this is an hourly chart) I pull the channel further to the right on the chart. Each time I pull the channel further to the right, it widens, because it's a standard deviation channel.
  • #355,060
  • Dec 1, 2013 9:47pm Dec 1, 2013 9:47pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} Actually, it doesn't matter if it goes up or down or sideways. Each time an hour goes by (this is an hourly chart) I pull the channel further to the right on the chart. Each time I pull the channel further to the right, it widens, because it's a standard deviation channel.
Used with an additional extreme tool to confirm the bias and to pin point the start of the reversal, it becomes powerful.
Best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, second best is now
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