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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #355,001
  • Nov 29, 2013 12:35pm Nov 29, 2013 12:35pm
Quoting DailyChart
{quote} This is what am called PATIENT ! Now We stay above 1.6345 for cable after dance for 20 hours and euro also still in bullish trend,Just wait the confirmation and swing it hard later !

Does this his mean that there is a good chance it will continue upwards
thanks craig

im still learning so trying to get lots of info
  • #355,002
  • Nov 29, 2013 12:44pm Nov 29, 2013 12:44pm
Quoting littlecraig
{quote} Does this his mean that there is a good chance it will continue upwards thanks craig im still learning so trying to get lots of info
honestly I can not give you the answer,but from my chart if we have daily close above 1.6345 then we might see the price going up again,I am long @ 1.60 so no worried for me here even we are in the supply zones,I am will keep update my position when it close and open a new order



Thank You
  • #355,003
  • Nov 29, 2013 12:44pm Nov 29, 2013 12:44pm
Quoting Nfp
long audusd ..dont ask me why
Hahaha - I appreciate your honesty...and I take trades like that myself sometimes.
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #355,004
  • Nov 29, 2013 12:47pm Nov 29, 2013 12:47pm
Quoting DailyChart
{quote} honestly I can not give you the answer,but from my chart if we have daily close above 1.6345 then we might see the price going up again,I am long @ 1.60 so no worried for me here even we are in the supply zones,I am will keep update my position when it close and open a new order Thank You
If you are looking for a short Then keep watching USDYen
  • #355,005
  • Nov 29, 2013 12:49pm Nov 29, 2013 12:49pm
Quoting DailyChart
{quote} honestly I can not give you the answer,but from my chart if we have daily close above 1.6345 then we might see the price going up again,I am long @ 1.60 so no worried for me here even we are in the supply zones,I am will keep update my position when it close and open a new order Thank You
Ok thank you for your reply
much appreciated
  • #355,006
  • Nov 29, 2013 1:21pm Nov 29, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting littlecraig
{quote} Ok thank you for your reply much appreciated
You are welcome littlecraig - hopes it help
  • #355,007
  • Nov 29, 2013 2:57pm Nov 29, 2013 2:57pm
Quoting Baggi
A part of me thinks that they target my stops. It's uncanny how sometimes they've come right up to my stops, taken it out, then reversed. But today it got about 3 pips from my stop and then reversed. Now I'm back at even money. Sure, we might head right back down again while I sleep and my stop goes goodbye. But it was nice to see, for once, that they didn't go straight to my stop and then turn around. Maybe I need to drop that particular conspiracy theory.

Looks like a case of setting my stops too tightly.

I'm learning a lesson here. When I buy small, I don't make as much money but I can keep my stops farther away. This means I usually end up making money. Just not a lot.

When I buy large, I get too nervous and make my stops too tight. I was pretty confident that thing would go up from where I bought, which was around 1.6338. But I set my stop at 1.6320. And when it missed that and started heading up strong I thought, "phew! I did it" then went to bed.

Lesson learned. Smaller lot's with larger stops.
  • #355,008
  • Nov 29, 2013 3:00pm Nov 29, 2013 3:00pm
Quoting DailyChart
{quote} You are welcome littlecraig - hopes it help
Wow!
Everything you say is important...highlighted with a marker.

Dude, bro, man....is there anything UNimportant you have to say also.......
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #355,009
  • Nov 29, 2013 3:05pm Nov 29, 2013 3:05pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} Looks like a case of setting my stops too tightly. I'm learning a lesson here. When I buy small, I don't make as much money but I can keep my stops farther away. This means I usually end up making money. Just not a lot. When I buy large, I get too nervous and make my stops too tight. I was pretty confident that thing would go up from where I bought, which was around 1.6338. But I set my stop at 1.6320. And when it missed that and started heading up strong I thought, "phew! I did it" then went to bed. Lesson learned. Smaller lot's with larger...
Or larger capital account.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #355,010
  • Nov 29, 2013 3:19pm Nov 29, 2013 3:19pm
took me nearly 48 h to sober up
i think, the uptrend is still living. new highs next week for the cable, maybe with seeing first 1,6325/15. but not my trading setup to bet on it...

http://tc.md.it-finance.com/ProRealT...g&purpose=file

nice weekend an best wishes to all here!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #355,011
  • Nov 29, 2013 3:20pm Nov 29, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Wow! Everything you say is important...highlighted with a marker. Dude, bro, man....is there anything UNimportant you have to say also.......
Just stay relax dude
  • #355,012
  • Nov 29, 2013 3:26pm Nov 29, 2013 3:26pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Why?
why u asking me??
  • #355,013
  • Nov 29, 2013 3:32pm Nov 29, 2013 3:32pm
Quoting DailyChart
{quote} Just stay relax dude
Even more important stuff released....

Maybe you should start thinking about announcing release dates for your important HIGHlighted stuff...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #355,014
  • Nov 29, 2013 3:48pm Nov 29, 2013 3:48pm
cable is bound for correction down next week
  • #355,015
  • Nov 29, 2013 3:48pm Nov 29, 2013 3:48pm
Stops are always tricky - I'm invariably back and forth on running them too tight or too loose. I think it helps if one can manage to find a place to put them where one can reasonably say, "If I'm right, then price should NOT go here" (e.g., Eur/usd trades above 1.3600 to a bit over 1.3610...falls back to 1.3595...back over 1.3610...back to maybe 1.3605...then goes over 1.3620 - at that point I would not expect to see 1.3599 again if the market is going to go higher, and I'd be worried if it even dropped below 1.3605). But there's always the occasional wicked spike that takes one out - infuriating, yes, but it happens. (shrug)
Writer, currency trader, madman
  • #355,016
  • Nov 29, 2013 3:59pm Nov 29, 2013 3:59pm
Quoting Nfp
{quote} why u asking me??
Why are you answering a question with a question?

This is what I see. Of course I could be wrong.
I just have to follow the charts, and according to them, I have a very high probability of being right.
What you see is a bearish contracting triangle, so I think your long is a tad early. Should probably wait until around 0.9080, but actually I would more recommend waiting until price retests upper trend line and take a short.

Hope this helps answer your question.

Cheers and have a great weekend.

AUD/USD H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdh1.png Size: 55 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #355,017
  • Nov 29, 2013 6:54pm Nov 29, 2013 6:54pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Or larger capital account.

Indeed.

Are you volunteering to make that happen?


Otherwise, I gotta do it the old fashion way. Smaller positions until the account is large enough for larger positions.

  • #355,018
  • Nov 29, 2013 11:22pm Nov 29, 2013 11:22pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
{quote} Even more important stuff released.... Maybe you should start thinking about announcing release dates for your important HIGHlighted stuff...
do no need care so much...maybe you just stay focus on how market work...
  • #355,019
  • Nov 30, 2013 1:50am Nov 30, 2013 1:50am
Quoting Baggi
{quote} Indeed. Are you volunteering to make that happen? Otherwise, I gotta do it the old fashion way. Smaller positions until the account is large enough for larger positions.
Haha. I wish I was rich enough to make it happen for you, but then I wouldn't be doing you any favors anyway.
This is something you have to do, otherwise it will mean nothing
You're on the right track Baggi. Just keep improving. The journey never ends.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #355,020
  • Edited 3:19am Nov 30, 2013 2:55am | Edited 3:19am
W/e Review

Technical Conditions

The Monthly candle closes as a hammer with a bullish body and engulfs the previous bearish candle on this t/f and is the 4th consecutive bullish candle. It represents an upside follow thru on September's bullish thrust candle after the pullback in October and into early November. No fractal swing is created by the close of this candle, the last being the fractal swing LL at 4811, however the next monthly candle (December's) close could see 5853 become a fractal swing HL on this t/f. The t/f remains in an overall 3505-7020 range with recent strength off the 4811 fractal LL mentioned above. Price has broken and closed to the upside of the 6351 previous swing hi and the top of the triangle that has contained price on this t/f for some considerable time Price remains bellow the 200 sma on this t/f which is below the 100 sma. The monthly range in November was 529 pips, [bigger than October's 365 pips] and is 101% of the current 20 month atr (523.)

The Weekly candle closes bullishly with it's body the larger part and it's lower wick longer than it's upper - a hammer-esq candle again and an upside follow thru on the previous similar candle on this t/f. No fractal swing is created by the close of this candle - the last on this t/f being the fractal swing L at 5853, and the close of this week's candle is above the first HH (@ 6259, and subsequent LH @ 6256) of the general opa uptrend that exists on the t/f. The t/f remains in this general opa uptrend. Price closes above both the 200 and 100sma's and the 100 is again converging on the 200 from below and pointing up. The weekly range was 251 [bigger than the previous week's 167 pips) and is102% of the current 20 week atr (245.)

Friday's Daily candle closes as something of a non descript bullish bodied spinning top (?) and is the 4th consecutive bullish candle. No fractal swing is created by the close of this candle as price broke to the upside of the recent range on this t/f [bordered to the topside by that 6259/56 swing hi (s,) ] the last fractal swing being the HL at 6228 that followed the HH at 6241. When the next fractal swing hi does develop it will be the 2nd HH in the now classic uptrend on this. t/f. Price closes above the 100 and 200 sma's both pointing up, and the 100 is above the 200....the gap between the 2 is approaching as big as it gets before historically a pullback has occurred. Friday's pip range was 69 pips, [less than Thursday's 80 pips] and is 68% of the current 20 day atr (101.)

The 4hr and the 1hr finish the week in general opa uptrends. The last candle close on both could be considered bullish and now the 4hr like the 1hr sees it's 100sma crossed above it's 200sma with both pointing up.

Summary

The technical situation per the week's close on the t/f's discussed above is undoubtedly generally bullish.

Per last week's w/e review price did indeed again close to the upside of last week's close and this was the greater probability. Price has broken and closed to upside of 2 resistance zones on the daily + t/f's and similarly has broken and closed above the long standing monthly triangle top. This is very bullish. Price on this pairing has been very bullish on consecutively higher t/f's for some time now and this has extended to the daily then weekly then monthly t/f's. I attach again the justification as to why I thought we would see an upside follow thru on September's Monthly bullish thrust candle that I posted in October (see annotated monthly chart below) and this is what has now occurred. Increasingly the fundamentals and technicals have aligned on this pairing and the move up from 4811 has been generally steep. 73% of lots on this site's trade explorer however remain short as of the week's close - down from 85% at last week's close - a lot doubtless stopped out in the week just closed.

Thursday's U.s Thanksgiving and Friday's so called 'Black Friday' there start the so called run into the Xmas break now...(even retailers in the Uk having so called Black Friday days too !) Volume and to some extent liquidity have indeed dropped off in recent days and although Friday's volume was the highest of the week, this week's was roughly half of last. The daily atr if it follows the pattern of recent years may continue to drop as we approach the end of the year and positions get squared, and books balanced.

Sometime is tsn't as easy to asses what the greater probability will be...and for next week this for me at least seems to be the case. Undoubtedly the technical conditions on the t/'s mentioned above closed bullishly but given the recent strength and price's propensity to re-test a significant b/o area and the position of the daily sma's mentioned I would say there is probably an equal chance next week of;

a. An upside follow thru on last week's close and hi, and a close and hi above these by the end of next week - ie more upside progress.

-or-

b. An upside follow thru on last week's close followed by a pullback resulting in a close below that of this week's.

Fundamentals

This week just closed saw Uk's 2nd estimate Q3 Gdp hold up at +0.8%, Carney adjust the Funding for Lending scheme, and was a light week re fundamental data in the U.s.

This week coming is a busy week re fundamental data releases, (ie known event risks.) The highlights in the Uk will likely be the Pmi surveys, with the Boe Mpc decision re repo rate and Qe on Thursday - although this is pretty much a foregone conclusion now ? In the U.s the highlights will likely be Bernanke speaking on Monday and the market will be looking for any clues re upcoming Fed's Fomc meet later in December. [Will he begin the tapering (so called Dec-taper) before his term as Fed Chair closes at end of the year ?] This is followed by the ISM survey's and of course the old favourite NFP etc on Friday. [You can't help feeling they are one bad NFP Monday from not even considering tapering anytime soon, although Yellen may have other ideas that challenge her Uber-dove reputation / make an immediate impact ?]

G/L
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: WKLY.jpg Size: 250 KB
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