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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #354,861
  • Nov 28, 2013 9:59am Nov 28, 2013 9:59am
Quoting TauTrader
Where the cherries at? Do not know {image}
sir data u shared is great to know where price is going will u please share from where u get this???
  • #354,862
  • Nov 28, 2013 10:18am Nov 28, 2013 10:18am
i am buliding gbpnzd shorts at these levels.. dont like the divergence int he direction of travel!!! when in doubt always trust the bond market


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZD.png Size: 59 KB
  • #354,863
  • Nov 28, 2013 10:29am Nov 28, 2013 10:29am
Quoting umair55
{quote} sir data u shared is great to know where price is going will u please share from where u get this???
pm
  • #354,864
  • Nov 28, 2013 10:30am Nov 28, 2013 10:30am
Quoting akki300986
i am buliding gbpnzd shorts at these levels.. dont like the divergence int he direction of travel!!! when in doubt always trust the bond market {image}

bonds SHOULD offer great insights but the divergences can build to very extreme levels that one can go broke trying to mean revert correlated assets
  • #354,865
  • Nov 28, 2013 10:38am Nov 28, 2013 10:38am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} bonds SHOULD offer great insights but the divergences can build to very extreme levels that one can go broke trying to mean revert correlated assets
i know mate. hence why is aid the "the direction of travel is opposite to each other"

i know divergence can exist for infinite time as u can se ein my chart also.. but the direction of travel has ot be the same, and has never been this blatantly out of sync..

on goes up, other might go up more or less.. that divergence is ok..

but one going up and other going down that too steep climg, nopes cant happen!!

its a subjective trade i am taking
  • #354,866
  • Nov 28, 2013 10:44am Nov 28, 2013 10:44am
Quoting akki300986
{quote} i know mate. hence why is aid the "the direction of travel is opposite to each other" i know divergence can exist for infinite time as u can se ein my chart also.. but the direction of travel has ot be the same, and has never been this blatantly out of sync.. on goes up, other might go up more or less.. that divergence is ok.. but one going up and other going down that too steep climg, nopes cant happen!! its a subjective trade i am taking
Currencies are basically BANK Notes with perpetual 1 day maturity..

If u read any bank note it says i promise to pay back this much amount to the holder.. ccy is just a bond/debt note of duration 1 day rolling or infinite, whatever way u may want to look at it

hence ccy = BONDm= Interest rate

it can habe divergence due to many other factors but to make direction of travel opposite it has to be either wrong or something masisve which i am not able to understand!
  • #354,867
  • Nov 28, 2013 11:06am Nov 28, 2013 11:06am
Quoting akki300986
{quote} i know mate. hence why is aid the "the direction of travel is opposite to each other" i know divergence can exist for infinite time as u can se ein my chart also.. but the direction of travel has ot be the same, and has never been this blatantly out of sync.. on goes up, other might go up more or less.. that divergence is ok.. but one going up and other going down that too steep climg, nopes cant happen!! its a subjective trade i am taking

you are right. The best trade seem to be going short gbp/nzd and hedging it with the yield spread. Get's a little complicated though.

Central banks (especially in AUS and New Z) have done an awesome job manipulating their currency which is pretty much nothing but trash-talking it lower. At one point they either have to back their words. Either way, those two (and others) have a bigger chance of converging now.

What broker/service are you using for this kind of analysis ?
  • #354,868
  • Nov 28, 2013 11:10am Nov 28, 2013 11:10am
Cable positions stopped out . Entered trade late October @62 and added early Nov at 61. Good profit when it briefly slipped below 59. I trade simple using trend lines, ma, candles and fibs. Was so convinced it was headed lower, I violated my plan and didn't take profit or get out at be. Lesson learned - I hope.
Defending Truth, Capitalism and the US Constitution
  • #354,869
  • Nov 28, 2013 11:17am Nov 28, 2013 11:17am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} you are right. The best trade seem to be going short gbp/nzd and hedging it with the yield spread. Get's a little complicated though. Central banks (especially in AUS and New Z) have done an awesome job manipulating their currency which is pretty much nothing but trash-talking it lower. At one point they either have to back their words. Either way, those two (and others) have a bigger chance of converging now. What broker/service are you using for this kind of analysis ?

no broker/service...
  • #354,870
  • Nov 28, 2013 11:20am Nov 28, 2013 11:20am
Quoting akki300986
{quote} no broker/service...

what do you mean? you don't have a real time access to bond yield spread charts ?
  • #354,871
  • Nov 28, 2013 11:27am Nov 28, 2013 11:27am
what do you guys think about today's insane chewing of GBP bids with the BoE's hawkish move? You guys updating your internal probabilities about an earlier than expected rate hike?
  • #354,872
  • Nov 28, 2013 11:58am Nov 28, 2013 11:58am
Good day,

Hate it - but buying. Feels awkward to say the least.

Regards
  • #354,873
  • Nov 28, 2013 12:14pm Nov 28, 2013 12:14pm
Quoting TauTrader
Good day, Hate it - but buying. Feels awkward to say the least. Regards
Good call. 1.6230 proved support.
Now we see if high (1.6356) can be broken and held
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,874
  • Nov 28, 2013 12:20pm Nov 28, 2013 12:20pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Good call. 1.6230 proved support. Now we see if high (1.6356) can be broken and held
Good day to you, sir

Need 6 pips north to resolve earlier shorts into a nett gain.

Retailers still heavy short. Short stops @ 21'700 vs 1'660 long - go figure. Bulk of stops between 1.6370 and 1.6400 ( 14'000 of them). Below - the only area of substance in relation is between 1.6280 and 1.6250

We wait - we see.

Trade well
  • #354,875
  • Nov 28, 2013 12:29pm Nov 28, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Good day to you, sir Need 6 pips north to resolve earlier shorts into a nett gain. Retailers still heavy short. Short stops @ 21'700 vs 1'660 long - go figure. Bulk of stops between 1.6370 and 1.6400 ( 14'000 of them). Below - the only area of substance in relation is between 1.6280 and 1.6250 We wait - we see. Trade well
Cheers Tau. Best of luck. I want a higher cable to squeeze out the shorts, but obviously I trade what I get, not what I want.
It has taken me a very very long time to learn this, but it is finally sticking.
Never stop learning.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,876
  • Nov 28, 2013 12:30pm Nov 28, 2013 12:30pm
Haha,

My Dip Finder (TM) is showing on 5min..

( As if that will really help)
  • #354,877
  • Nov 28, 2013 12:31pm Nov 28, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Cheers Tau. Best of luck. I want a higher cable to squeeze out the shorts, but obviously I trade what I get, not what I want. It has taken me a very very long time to learn this, but it is finally sticking. Never stop learning.
All success to you, Sir

Wish you health , Wealth and Happiness

Regards
  • #354,878
  • Nov 28, 2013 12:34pm Nov 28, 2013 12:34pm
Quoting TauTrader
Haha, My Dip Finder (TM) is showing on 5min.. ( As if that will really help)
It has worked most of the time so far, so it must help.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,879
  • Nov 28, 2013 12:41pm Nov 28, 2013 12:41pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} It has worked most of the time so far, so it must help.
Touch wood - it has done well so far -

Looks like 90% hit rate. I'm carefully optimistic.

Hope to see you @ 1.6370 later

All the best
  • #354,880
  • Nov 28, 2013 12:42pm Nov 28, 2013 12:42pm
I am not Short yet here
Will update my position later



Stay lovely
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