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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #354,681
  • Edited 2:07pm Nov 27, 2013 1:47pm | Edited 2:07pm
Last time we saw a weekly rejection from the 76.4% fibo level we retraced to a low of 1.48. Perhaps the risk reward for a large trade is there now. I imagine we got a pretty size able shakeout above 1.63 I suspect most retailers were short since c1.60 so a 300 pip drawdown is more than likely one thats going to kill them.

Thin volume over the coming days will we see some Japanese profit taking? US session seems to have started that with some dollar buying. Instead of a steady uptrend we may see a steady down trend.

Short 3 lots 1.6275 sl 1.6350

TP open
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  • #354,682
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:06pm Nov 27, 2013 2:06pm
Quoting TauTrader
Good day, Immediately closed my short. How stubborn can us retailers be? New stops are aplenty again higher up. Short positions with stops still @ 21'700 vs only 1'765 long stops. Overall short positions currently 31'500 vs 5'800 long. Again - probability favors the recent drop to be a pullback only, rather than a sustained move down. I believe there are still legs north then.. Regards {image}
Attached Image
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,683
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:08pm Nov 27, 2013 2:08pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {image}
can you please explain this?
as far as i understand this, 1,6270 is an important level?
for me itīs just R2, is there anything other?
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #354,684
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:09pm Nov 27, 2013 2:09pm
Quoting RodMca
Last time we saw a weekly rejection from the 76.4% fibo level we retraced to a low of 1.48. Perhaps the risk reward for a large trade is there now. I imagine we got a pretty size able shakeout above 1.63 I suspect most retailers were short since c1.60 so a 300 pip drawdown is more than likely one thats going to kill them. Thin volume over the coming days will we see some Japanese profit taking? US session seems to have started that with some dollar buying. Instead of a steady uptrend we may see a steady down trend. Short 3 lots 1.6275 sl 1.6350...
Are you in already, or is that a pending order?
SL on my buys are at 1.6255 so if it gets down that low, my stops will nudge price towards your entry.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,685
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:11pm Nov 27, 2013 2:11pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} can you please explain this? as far as i understand this, 1,6270 is an important level?
Those are all stop losses for the retail bears. So they are a magnet for stop hunters.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,686
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:14pm Nov 27, 2013 2:14pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Those are all stop losses for the retail bears. So they are a magnet for stop hunters.
thanks a lot.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #354,687
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:18pm Nov 27, 2013 2:18pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Are you in already, or is that a pending order? SL on my buys are at 1.6255 so if it gets down that low, my stops will nudge price towards your entry.
your trading on a demo-account, or real money? no offence, i just want to know this.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #354,688
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:18pm Nov 27, 2013 2:18pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} {image}
Sir Pip,

Yip. the info is dynamic - so if those positions are closed prematurely - the picture may change. But one has to work with probability - and in my book, it does favor more upside going forward - taking into consideration the large amounts of stops up there, as well as the total open positions. One can counter argue that it is just a snapshot and only represent a small portion - but again, probability is that this sentiment can be duplicated or expanded as a good core sample.

So - let me look to buy a dip somewhere

Trade well and all the best. Off to bed.

Regards to you
  • #354,689
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:25pm Nov 27, 2013 2:25pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Are you in already, or is that a pending order? SL on my buys are at 1.6255 so if it gets down that low, my stops will nudge price towards your entry.
Oops small typo I'm short at 1.6275 my bad
  • #354,690
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:39pm Nov 27, 2013 2:39pm
Quoting deltaone
{quote} your trading on a demo-account, or real money? no offence, i just want to know this.
No offence taken and I am happy to answer you.

I am trading real money, but I don't post my real account in trade explorer.

I have been trading real money since I started 10 years ago. I only traded demo for the first 3 months. In hindsight I should have traded demo for a lot longer as it might have saved me my margin call.. Luckily it was only a small account but the emotional impact was huge. I even called the broker yelling at them because I was margin called on a spread widening during an NFP report and then price went my way. I would have doubled my account on that trade but instead blew half of it (the other half was locked in margin). Obviously I was way overleveraged and had it all in one position. Lesson learned

The demo account you see in my trade explorer has been neglected for many weeks now. I keep it there to give me a sense of what is happening with risk sentiment as it is positioned to be mostly anti-risk and USD bullish. Also the positions there are long term. Eventually they will all be in the green.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,691
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:41pm Nov 27, 2013 2:41pm
Quoting TauTrader
Good day, Immediately closed my short. How stubborn can us retailers be? New stops are aplenty again higher up. Short positions with stops still @ 21'700 vs only 1'765 long stops. Overall short positions currently 31'500 vs 5'800 long. Again - probability favors the recent drop to be a pullback only, rather than a sustained move down. I believe there are still legs north then.. Regards {image}

Hi where did you get the full stop map from, I can't find that one anywhere.
  • #354,692
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:42pm Nov 27, 2013 2:42pm
Quoting RodMca
{quote} Oops small typo I'm short at 1.6275 my bad
Ahh I see. So you're the bugger who is preventing it from racing back up to take out the short stops at 1.6350
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,693
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:42pm Nov 27, 2013 2:42pm
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Sir Pip, Yip. the info is dynamic - so if those positions are closed prematurely - the picture may change. But one has to work with probability - and in my book, it does favor more upside going forward - taking into consideration the large amounts of stops up there, as well as the total open positions. One can counter argue that it is just a snapshot and only represent a small portion - but again, probability is that this sentiment can be duplicated or expanded as a good core sample. So - let me look to buy a dip somewhere Trade...

and a good night to you also Sir TT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,694
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:46pm Nov 27, 2013 2:46pm
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} Sir Pip, Yip. the info is dynamic - so if those positions are closed prematurely - the picture may change. But one has to work with probability - and in my book, it does favor more upside going forward - taking into consideration the large amounts of stops up there, as well as the total open positions. One can counter argue that it is just a snapshot and only represent a small portion - but again, probability is that this sentiment can be duplicated or expanded as a good core sample. So - let me look to buy a dip somewhere Trade...

thanks Tau for your updates.

can you show the stop picture for eur ?
  • #354,695
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:46pm Nov 27, 2013 2:46pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Ahh I see. So you're the bugger who is preventing it from racing back up to take out the short stops at 1.6350
For now anyway! Let's hope the japs keep their money in their pockets tomorrow!
  • #354,696
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:48pm Nov 27, 2013 2:48pm
Quoting TauTrader
Closer view of daily. That 1.6274/5 is currently holding as resistance. Price will have to sit on top there next week to continue north. If 1.6274/5 holds - we travel south. Regards {image}

what do those blue and red lines represent ?
  • #354,697
  • Nov 27, 2013 2:56pm Nov 27, 2013 2:56pm
Quoting lumesh
{quote} what do those blue and red lines represent ?
They look like weekly pivots to me.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,698
  • Nov 27, 2013 3:19pm Nov 27, 2013 3:19pm
Resistance break and close above with 4H pinbar
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  • #354,699
  • Nov 27, 2013 3:21pm Nov 27, 2013 3:21pm
Quoting RodMca
{quote} For now anyway! Let's hope the japs keep their money in their pockets tomorrow!
My EW count for cable has now changed.
This is the daily
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,700
  • Nov 27, 2013 3:22pm Nov 27, 2013 3:22pm
Expecting a test of the last high. It may create a new high or not but I think not much upside potential left.
Never test the depth of water with both feet.
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