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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #354,541
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:45am Nov 27, 2013 4:45am
Quoting PipTrapper
Remember the US Jobless claims are scheduled for today instead of tomorrow. So this could present a pullback if the numbers are less than expected.

hey guys some knowledge sharing on Jobless Claims at this time of the year

1) these numbers dont matter in nov dec
2) because lots of temp people are hired for holiday seasons sales. the kind u will see employed in all the apparel, jwellery, gadgets shops for holiday sale
3) and lots of permanent people are fired in nov dec.. mainly in financial sectors where atleast 2k-3k people would have been firedin nov
4) temp people hired gets off roled from jobless claims, whereas permanent high earning financial people fired wont enroll there
5) if u do your maths assuming numbers, asusme 100 temp are hired for $1000 a month salary and 100 permanent finance proffesionals are fired for $10,000 a month salary.. net employment number is flat (-100+100) but the spending power of the economy has gone down by 9,000 dollars..
  • #354,542
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:47am Nov 27, 2013 4:47am
Looks like they are preparing to smash through 1.6300... 1.6279 now support. 1.6338 next up..... wouldn't place any serious shorts until 1.6470-1.6550 area
Loser trying to become a winner!
  • #354,543
  • Edited 5:01am Nov 27, 2013 4:47am | Edited 5:01am
Quoting monkey@forex
80% retailers are short on cable...there has been no topping signals yet...I'm looking at 1.66, that would be a good false break of the monthly triangle...1.66 towards year end on low volume, it's Xmas, everyone feels happy and then the tapering confirmation next year to knock this back into the triangle range...still, like any predictions, it could be completely wrong...but I think price has to be closer 1.66 to get people long again
1.6650 is the 200 week month EMA.
The 100 week month EMA comes in at 1.6380
So yeah, valid numbers, but for now we have to see how the macro unfolds because I don't really see 1.66 in the next few days. Of course it's not impossible as a really good major short squeeze on low liquidity could easily get it there, especially after a break of the triangle. I'm just skeptical... part of my nature I guess.
Anyway, I won't be complaining if it makes it that high because it will complete some unfinished business from both a PA and a mean reversion perspective and should open the doors to deep south... dependent of course on my speculation that the USD will resurge across the board.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,544
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:51am Nov 27, 2013 4:51am
Quoting akki300986
{quote} hey guys some knowledge sharing on Jobless Claims at this time of the year 1) these numbers dont matter in nov dec 2) because lots of temp people are hired for holiday seasons sales. the kind u will see employed in all the apparel, jwellery, gadgets shops for holiday sale 3) and lots of permanent people are fired in nov dec.. mainly in financial sectors where atleast 2k-3k people would have been firedin nov 4) temp people hired gets off roled from jobless claims, whereas permanent high earning financial people fired wont enroll there 5)...
Do you have a source for all these quoted statistics? Even just some links to charts or an authoritative article / paper ?
I have never heard of high profile financial guys getting fired in November / December, and it's not like I just crawled out from under a rock yesterday
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,545
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:53am Nov 27, 2013 4:53am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} can you explain what instrument are u referring to for that 300p in 2 days ? You mean cable from today's lows (6200) to 6500 by tomorrow ? Even so, candles are just the result of what i outlined earlier. Think of what is that you are saying: You are saying that the chart or the candles/bars are responsible for the valuation of an asset that has a real life implications to the economy ? You can conclude that for Bitcoin but i disagree otherwise.
Sure. I'm not pretending to be super pro far from it but I just have a TA method that works in my corner of the market. I use just a basic triangle system and channels.

These are a few of the trades I posted on the EU thread. I also scalped a bit between bounces.
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #354,546
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:54am Nov 27, 2013 4:54am
Quoting Davit
added 2 posters to my ignore list today.Record I guess.

hey Davit.. you were so happy to add two posters to your ignore list that you were rolling in the floor mate!

arent you gonna say somethign like this today

"took one person off my ignore list "

i just found it unfair that u insult publically and acknowledge privately....
  • #354,547
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:55am Nov 27, 2013 4:55am
5960 is where I have the 200 week ema ? 5750 the 100 week ema ?...these on MT4 - a discrepancy there with your charting ?

Best Wishes

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} 1.6650 is the 200 week EMA. The 100 week EMA comes in at 1.6380 So yeah, valid numbers, but for now we have to see how the macro unfolds because I don't really see 1.66 in the next few days. Of course it's not impossible as a really good major short squeeze on low liquidity could easily get it there, especially after a break of the triangle. I'm just skeptical... part of my nature I guess. Anyway, I won't be complaining if it makes it that high because it will complete some unfinished business from both a PA and a mean reversion...
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it's all gone a bit........
  • #354,548
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:55am Nov 27, 2013 4:55am
Quoting julia2011
{quote} to test the upper trend line weekly before falling down
Not so sure of that... cable has been breaking some TLs by now...
  • #354,549
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:57am Nov 27, 2013 4:57am
Here is the latest retail positioning from Oanda as at 10:40 GMT (After the short squeeze) and it amazingly still shows 75% of cable positions are short. More squeezing to come .

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,550
  • Nov 27, 2013 4:59am Nov 27, 2013 4:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Do you have a source for all these quoted statistics? Even just some links to charts or an authoritative article / paper ? I have never heard of high profile financial guys getting fired in November / December, and it's not like I just crawled out from under a rock yesterday
it looks like that u have been under the rock mate

nov dec is the time u cut cost and tidy up the year end results.. hence cost cuts in nov dec..

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/1...0IK2PP20131030

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...-job-cuts.html

i cant dig up all the articles, bank of america has fired truck loads in america.. it pays to read up lots and have the ability to connect dots..

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...99N1JR20131024
  • #354,551
  • Nov 27, 2013 5:00am Nov 27, 2013 5:00am
http://www.businessinsider.com/bank-...ayoffs-2013-10
  • #354,552
  • Nov 27, 2013 5:00am Nov 27, 2013 5:00am
Quoting petetong
5960 is where I have the 200 week ema ? 5750 the 100 week ema ?...these on MT4 - a discrepancy there with your charting ? Best Wishes {quote} {image}
Oops. Typo. I meant monthly EMAs
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,553
  • Nov 27, 2013 5:01am Nov 27, 2013 5:01am
Quoting PipTrapper
Here is the latest retail positioning from Oanda as at 10:40 GMT (After the short squeeze) and it amazingly still shows 75% of cable positions are short. More squeezing to come . {image}


been looking at this recently as well, are these guys just hopelessly short with no stop? its like no matter how high it goes they never get stopped out lol. Also alot of the positions are short from lower? i.e. sub 1.6150... and new longs are short from recent levels 1.6250+

those longs are likely weak hands
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #354,554
  • Nov 27, 2013 5:02am Nov 27, 2013 5:02am
I am not short the GBPUSD as i said in previous posts i am not liking what the USD is doing. felt strange enough for me to stay in the sidelines with teh GBPUSD.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #354,555
  • Nov 27, 2013 5:03am Nov 27, 2013 5:03am
The price should be 1.63463
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  • #354,556
  • Nov 27, 2013 5:04am Nov 27, 2013 5:04am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} can you explain what instrument are u referring to for that 300p in 2 days ? You mean cable from today's lows (6200) to 6500 by tomorrow ? Even so, candles are just the result of what i outlined earlier. Think of what is that you are saying: You are saying that the chart or the candles/bars are responsible for the valuation of an asset that has a real life implications to the economy ? You can conclude that for Bitcoin but i disagree otherwise.
It has nothing to do with "making" the pa but rather letting the big boyz make the decisions and being a sheep and following the signs that those decisions leave printed on the charts for all to see. I used several instruments as you can see. I saw the bullish behaviour in the euro and followed the correlation on other pairs. I have noticed in the past that when 1 pair starts to challenge these extreme levels others follow.
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #354,557
  • Nov 27, 2013 5:04am Nov 27, 2013 5:04am
if UK inflation was crappy when oil was higher an gbp was at 1.59..... where will inflation come in when oil is at current levels and gbp is 1.63+....
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #354,558
  • Nov 27, 2013 5:09am Nov 27, 2013 5:09am
Quoting akki300986
{quote} it looks like that u have been under the rock mate nov dec is the time u cut cost and tidy up the year end results.. hence cost cuts in nov dec.. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/1...0IK2PP20131030 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-1...-job-cuts.html i cant dig up all the articles, bank of america has fired truck loads in america.. it pays to read up lots and have the ability to connect dots.. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...99N1JR20131024...
Okay thanks for the links and just as I suspected, these are not seasonal job cuts. These are one time structural changes. If these job cuts happen to fall in Nov and Dec, then that is just coincidence.

FYI, I already knew about these restructures, and there is no need for you try and insult my intelligence. Not that I give a flying f**k, but you really should show more respect towards others if you want to be taken seriously. This is the very reason why you ended up on my iggy list last time.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,559
  • Nov 27, 2013 5:13am Nov 27, 2013 5:13am
Quoting Citiboy
{quote} been looking at this recently as well, are these guys just hopelessly short with no stop? its like no matter how high it goes they never get stopped out lol. Also alot of the positions are short from lower? i.e. sub 1.6150... and new longs are short from recent levels 1.6250+ those longs are likely weak hands
Good question. Perhaps it is all the unemployed youth in Greece, Spain and Portugal maxing out their credit cards in the FX markets instead of spending the money on booze and expensive designer clothing.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #354,560
  • Nov 27, 2013 5:14am Nov 27, 2013 5:14am
Major swing highs...Oct 2 1.6260, Oct 22 1.6257 and the mini minor Nov 24 1.6241...all broken: first attempt at breaking out of the range .

Smooth sailing for bulls for now...

Barrage of news coming up, hopefully won't be a party pooper.

Enjoy!
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