Loser trying to become a winner!
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- #354,402
- Nov 26, 2013 10:11am Nov 26, 2013 10:11am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 21,377 Posts
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- #354,403
- Nov 26, 2013 10:16am Nov 26, 2013 10:16am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2008 | 3,395 Posts
The Market pays you to be disciplined
- #354,404
- Nov 26, 2013 10:23am Nov 26, 2013 10:23am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 21,377 Posts
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
- #354,408
- Nov 26, 2013 11:37am Nov 26, 2013 11:37am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} or it could just shoot to 1.6280 from here for no reason
We're in a range and being a major holiday in the US on Thursday, I expect tomorrow's London session to be the last hoorah until next Monday.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #354,410
- Nov 26, 2013 11:56am Nov 26, 2013 11:56am
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
with Uk gdp tomorrow , i excpect this ti be bought to the runp up top data and also expecting a comprehensive beat.. dont forget Q3 US gdp was a huge beat.. 2.8 vs 2.0 expectation... good Q3 US GDP is priced in gbp/usd now its turn for good UK gdp to be priced in Looking towards 1.63 and higher tomorrow!! be safe!
Based on PA following the prelim on 25th Oct (which came in at 0.8%), Cable should drop to 1.5900.
Don;t take my word for it. Just look at the data that was released on the 25th of October and then look at what happened to Cable... it tanked.
After looking at that, take a look at the awful retail sales number that was reported on 14th November and see what Cable has done since then.. yep it went up.
So if data is indicative of how Cable will react, a good GDP number tomorrow should send cable hurdling towards 1.5900
Can you explain that with fundamental analysis.?
I'm no dumbass and the best I can come up with is that all this crap is already priced in before it is released. The only time price is really affected is if it is a big enough surprise that it changes the entire macro landscape.
My view from a fundamental perspective is that the market has gotten way ahead of the underlying macro, and tomorrow will just be another "sell the news" event.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #354,412
- Nov 26, 2013 12:26pm Nov 26, 2013 12:26pm
- Joined Feb 2011 | Status: building a shortfolio | 2,418 Posts
Twitter: @TrendersGame
- #354,413
- Nov 26, 2013 12:27pm Nov 26, 2013 12:27pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
You may be right, Pip. I'm not able right now to take a look at the fundamentals from Oct 25th and subsequently to see what is going on there. I will say this. When it comes to charting, there are many ways to chart. There are tops and bottoms, Higher Highs and Higher Lows and the opposite. There are known formations like head and shoulders, W, etc. The same goes with fundamentals. Neither can be oversimplified. Sometimes it seems like 10+4 should always equal 14 in the markets. But it really depends on what you're looking at. If it's a clock, 10am+4hours=2pm....
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #354,415
- Nov 26, 2013 12:33pm Nov 26, 2013 12:33pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
30 min chart, 1.6200 will be a battle to retake eh? {image}
The key question I think is not how much supply there is in Cable, but rather how much demand in USD... Still lots of it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #354,416
- Nov 26, 2013 12:37pm Nov 26, 2013 12:37pm
- | Joined Aug 2011 | Status: Trader | 2,640 Posts
I'm just trying to figure a good price where I should buy some more. Increase my position.
Gidday Baggi
Comes down to risk an reward
Either open up your existing longs
to catch a expected bigger move
That would be the best option.
Nothing worse than loading up at the top
An have it crawl back down
- #354,417
- Nov 26, 2013 12:40pm Nov 26, 2013 12:40pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined May 2008 | 3,395 Posts
The Market pays you to be disciplined
- #354,418
- Nov 26, 2013 12:50pm Nov 26, 2013 12:50pm
{quote} The expectation for the 2nd estimate is 0.8% q/q. Based on PA following the prelim on 25th Oct (which came in at 0.8%), Cable should drop to 1.5900. Don;t take my word for it. Just look at the data that was released on the 25th of October and then look at what happened to Cable... it tanked. After looking at that, take a look at the awful retail sales number that was reported on 14th November and see what Cable has done since then.. yep it went up. So if data is indicative of how Cable will react, a good GDP number tomorrow should send cable...
Sounds good.But1.59 isn't too excessive?
- #354,419
- Nov 26, 2013 12:58pm Nov 26, 2013 12:58pm
- Joined Aug 2008 | Status: Persist Until Something Happens | 17,898 Posts
{quote} Sounds good.But1.59 isn't too excessive?
I was only suggesting that just because tomorrow's UK GDP comes in strong, it does not mean that price will shoot to 1.63 as suggested by akki in the below quoted post...
with Uk gdp tomorrow , i excpect this ti be bought to the runp up top data and also expecting a comprehensive beat.. dont forget Q3 US gdp was a huge beat.. 2.8 vs 2.0 expectation... good Q3 US GDP is priced in gbp/usd now its turn for good UK gdp to be priced in Looking towards 1.63 and higher tomorrow!! be safe!
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
- #354,420
- Nov 26, 2013 1:08pm Nov 26, 2013 1:08pm
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Per Aspera Ad Astra | 6,262 Posts
