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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #354,261
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:24pm Nov 25, 2013 12:24pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} did you enter your long and do you plan to hold it to 1.67?
No......I am short 1.6225...I exited long when Sunday gap was closed and entered short...Some comments are just for fan ...Don't take my comments seriously...And I reserve right to be wrong ....
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #354,262
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:25pm Nov 25, 2013 12:25pm
Heres what i observerd and learned from my lessons in uni.

Long term - Currency Spot price should be determined by interest rate and inflation differentials, thats used to calculate the IMPLIED spot Price, also the reason why for example the AUDUSD, Australia at 2.5% interest and US at 0.01% interest should suggest AUDUSD to move down. (which it did, it bloody took ages too... High interest rate currency should drop and low interest rate currency should rise, this is actually text book economics)
Medium Term - Currency prices would form a medium term pattern in tandem to the long term direction through demand and supply levels. for AUDUSD iit happened to be a selling as soon as it broke below parity.
Short Term - Short term unfortunately is muddled by "Noise" news that not only have both a positive and negative effect on the markets, demand and supply could be ignored as fake breakouts or fake intraday patterns emerge. these news could both increase and decrease momentum in the market.

So really i am not a big fan of trading the short term because of this, short term is full of intraday noise, but when you go into longer time frame, these intraday noise gets filtered by time factor, so the less noise, the more clarity.
it also serves as a good way to keep your mind sane in this insane market.

Another thing i've started to realise. its probably not best to trade fundamental as they are presented. but rather what they imply.
when a data release comes out, probably best to see whats the reaction of the market first before you make a move, and dont anticipate news...
ive seen far too much times where bad data could boost optimism of the currency... when we all feel bad data means sell sell sell, i say when whatever data comes out, stay on the sidelines and observe the reactions first before taking an action.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #354,263
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:29pm Nov 25, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} i will be interested to see how this develops:- http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=459124
those who cant think, can still "see"!

those who can think, can also "see"
  • #354,264
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:31pm Nov 25, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting akki300986
{quote} those who cant think, can still "see"! those who can think, can also "see"
ironically those who dont see, can think.... when something isnt clear, its probably best to step back and think a little bit first....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #354,265
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:32pm Nov 25, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting fxtyrant
Heres what i observerd and learned from my lessons in uni. Long term - Currency Spot price should be determined by interest rate and inflation differentials, thats used to calculate the IMPLIED spot Price, also the reason why for example the AUDUSD, Australia at 2.5% interest and US at 0.01% interest should suggest AUDUSD to move down. Medium Term - Currency prices would form a medium term pattern in tandem to the long term direction through demand and supply levels. for AUDUSD iit happened to be a selling as soon as it broke below parity. Short...
thats how i trade (the noise bit) ..u notice i post monthly time frames..i even look at the noise through large time frames..so it doesnt get distracting
  • #354,266
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:35pm Nov 25, 2013 12:35pm
Quoting akki300986
{quote} those who cant think, can still "see"! those who can think, can also "see"

yes ..u are right!!

however in order to see what is actually happening..u have to get rid of the emotion attached to trading..i simply dont get emotional and this allows me to make decisions which are vital, emotions suppress people

traders that are good..find solution to problems quick..and grow
always testing themselves making new challenges
  • #354,267
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:38pm Nov 25, 2013 12:38pm
Quoting akki300986
{quote} those who cant think, can still "see"! those who can think, can also "see"
As long as you need to be right

  1. When you're wrong you will interpret this as pain
  2. Till you realise that anything is possible
  3. Till you understand that we're only talking probabilities

You won't be a very good Trader

When you calm down to realising we're only looking for the probable, not the absolute because you can never know what trade I'm going to put on or when the other triggers are going to be pulled. Only when you accept that you cannot believe in absolutes, the market is an opportunity, not a science. Trading is an Art.

Risk / Reward.
Money Management
Discpipline
Consistency
Trade fearless, trade with the market flow

Get over needing to be right or soon you'll be gone.

This is a fact

G/L

  • #354,268
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:39pm Nov 25, 2013 12:39pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} ironically those who dont see, can think.... when something isnt clear, its probably best to step back and think a little bit first....
FX

Back with a bang.. Watch your tone this time round.

Regards
  • #354,269
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:41pm Nov 25, 2013 12:41pm
Charts can ignite news too. EU going to 1.38 hurting EZ recovery & exports makes ECB drop rates or discuss negative rate. E/CHF coming close to 1.20 makes Jordan come out of the closet to say he will buy unlimited FX to defend the cap driving U/CHF up and EU up too.
  • #354,270
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:41pm Nov 25, 2013 12:41pm
Quoting TauTrader
{quote} FX Back with a bang.. Watch your tone this time round. Regards
yep Back with a bang, on thee process of establishing a new fund management and keeping up with my studies for the time i've been away.
but i sstayed in contact with navin and some others on FB, just needed to clear my head a bit
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #354,271
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:48pm Nov 25, 2013 12:48pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} As long as you need to be right When you're wrong you will interpret this as pain Till you realise that anything is possible Till you understand that we're only talking probabilitiesYou won't be a very good Trader When you calm down to realising we're only looking for the probable, not the absolute because you can never know what trade I'm going to put on or when the other triggers are going to be pulled. Only when you accept that you cannot believe in absolutes, the market is an opportunity, not a science. Trading is an Art. Risk / Reward....
u are absolutely right///
  • #354,272
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:53pm Nov 25, 2013 12:53pm
a little note from my trading activity, since "normal" trading got back to full pace after the summer holiday in september, i have observed almost everthing US dollar related currencies were acting VERY weird, took me long enough to decide to stay away from trading pairs like EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY or USDCHF...
i had better opportunities on cross pairs like EURGBP, GBPJPY, EURJPY, GBPAUD, EURAUD etc etc....
USD has been far tooooo noisy for my liking to trade it.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #354,273
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:56pm Nov 25, 2013 12:56pm
all discretionary informations are integrated in the market, shown in the pricelevel (the chart) at a given point in time (t).
when new information is hitting the market in t+1, the market immediately is trying to intergrate the new information.
hence, the market is semi-efficient according to fama (i was very happy he got the nobel price this year).
my job is to be alert in that case (f.e. when GDP or inflation report is published) and to make my bet for the next minute.
i would describe the trades i made today as gambling with a probability of success above 60%, therefore the sice was relatively small.
like a good poker player, i have to decide when to bet and which size the bet should have. when you get the right cards, you should make the real bets...
just my opinion in pidgin-english
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #354,274
  • Nov 25, 2013 1:02pm Nov 25, 2013 1:02pm
Quoting deltaone
all discretionary informations are integrated in the market, shown in the pricelevel (the chart) at a given point in time (t). when new information is hitting the market in t+1, the market immediately is trying to intergrate the new information. hence, the market is semi-efficient according to fama (i was very happy he got the nobel price this year). my job is to be alert in that case (f.e. when GDP or inflation report is published) and to make my bet for the next minute. i would describe the trades i made today as gambling with a probability of...
Your style is perhaps not one I would adopt but your strategy is essentially correct. And your point is well made.

share more, when you feel you want to

J
  • #354,275
  • Nov 25, 2013 1:02pm Nov 25, 2013 1:02pm
i am happy to short GU...now i rich ..
  • #354,276
  • Nov 25, 2013 1:03pm Nov 25, 2013 1:03pm
Good afternoon.
I just want to leave a message of congratulations to the recovery TAU TRADER I saw today. we have much to learn from this man.

  • #354,277
  • Nov 25, 2013 1:26pm Nov 25, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting deltaone
... i would describe the trades i made today as gambling with a probability of success above 60%, ...

Why gambling? You have several options to avoid gambling...For example: you can rotate monitor or you can buy two crystal balls ( currently on sale on
eBay.com...just regular not custom made) so you can do better trading ....then 50/50 flip coin which many traders cannot reach ever.....so there are always possibilities better then gambling....
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #354,278
  • Nov 25, 2013 1:33pm Nov 25, 2013 1:33pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Your style is perhaps not one I would adopt but your strategy is essentially correct. And your point is well made. share more, when you feel you want to J
thanks, i will do so!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #354,279
  • Nov 25, 2013 1:36pm Nov 25, 2013 1:36pm
Quoting akki300986
{quote} i will correct myself "Expectation of news makes charts" i wont argue, i have got enough of a bad name already! good luck to all
No worries, at least if you're right, you can come back later and brag about it
  • #354,280
  • Nov 25, 2013 1:43pm Nov 25, 2013 1:43pm
Quoting mima
{quote} Why gambling? You have several options to avoid gambling...For example: you can rotate monitor or you can buy two crystal balls ( currently on sale on eBay.com...just regular not custom made) so you can do better trading ....then 50/50 flip coin which many traders cannot reach ever.....so there are always possibilities better then gambling....
ironic, or sarcastic? i just canīt say, itīs up to you... at least, it doesnīt matter. the most important thing, i made money today. S3 did a good job for me, first long (see above) and now short. all the best
fortis fortuna adiuvat
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