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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #354,101
  • Nov 24, 2013 11:33am Nov 24, 2013 11:33am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} im worried about the gbp being stronger..that thing is on a rocket laucher
GU is in a 350 pip range right now, testing the triple top on the daily or weekly you can see.

This is a Daily chart, but the Stochastics on the weekly are topping.

Mixed signals on the Flag it is creating....... a fake long on the daily and then short on the weekly, it is looking like for now, until I see something differently shaping up.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 11_24_13 GU day.JPG Size: 107 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #354,102
  • Nov 24, 2013 2:08pm Nov 24, 2013 2:08pm
on esignal GU is 1.6229 ...steadily going up...absolutely impressive and many traders are definitely happy for that ....

There is nothing to stop great upward progress...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #354,103
  • Nov 24, 2013 2:15pm Nov 24, 2013 2:15pm
Quoting mima
on esignal GU is 1.6229 ...steadily going up...absolutely impressive and many traders are definitely happy for that .... There is nothing to stop great upward progress...
1.6300/6350 will cap it.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #354,104
  • Nov 24, 2013 2:33pm Nov 24, 2013 2:33pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} 1.6300/6350 will cap it.
That is great...Enter on time ...Exit on time...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #354,105
  • Nov 24, 2013 6:23pm Nov 24, 2013 6:23pm
Asia pushing already does not look good for Bears.This being end of month sadly I can see serious pushing up profit taking then next month slowly going down correction.
I have developed serious dislike of British pound most overrated shit currency that everyone wants.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #354,106
  • Nov 24, 2013 6:44pm Nov 24, 2013 6:44pm
Quoting Davit
Asia pushing already does not look good for Bears.This being end of month sadly I can see serious pushing up profit taking then next month slowly going down correction. I have developed serious dislike of British pound most overrated shit currency that everyone wants.
aud/nzd may be forming a bottom here lets see could be 800 pips worth of mmmm mmmm goodness
  • #354,107
  • Nov 24, 2013 6:56pm Nov 24, 2013 6:56pm
Quoting Davit
Asia pushing already does not look good for Bears.This being end of month sadly I can see serious pushing up profit taking then next month slowly going down correction. I have developed serious dislike of British pound most overrated shit currency that everyone wants.
Have faith, mate. 6300/6350 high probability to cap it.

reasons:
1) Resistance 6300 knocked it down many times in the last two years, and daily never closed above it after many tries.
2) multi-year descending trendline above meets with 6300.
3) price fell off ascending wedge from the lower trendline and now trying to retouch it, but the line meets the above two conditions at 6300.

The confluence of the above 3 conditions provides strong resistance at 6300. It may spike over 6300, but it will be knocked down again like before.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable_182.png Size: 490 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable_183.png Size: 355 KB
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #354,108
  • Nov 24, 2013 8:43pm Nov 24, 2013 8:43pm
Morning Gents,

Pip Trader made a very interesting post about the arse wobble some time back on eu I believe. Mine will start doing that if Geppy does not slow down!!!

Best
  • #354,109
  • Nov 24, 2013 8:53pm Nov 24, 2013 8:53pm
Quoting Davit
Asia pushing already does not look good for Bears.This being end of month sadly I can see serious pushing up profit taking then next month slowly going down correction. I have developed serious dislike of British pound most overrated shit currency that everyone wants.
That's my Great British Pound you talk of, and if we talk relative terms i.e ten/twenty years or so, a move up from here would not surprise me one bit lets look at gbp when it was 2/1 on the dollar and 3/2 on the euro.....we are not going back far my good man. Things are by no means the same as then, I'm just saying keep a broad mind, and for what it's worth all of my fellow medium sized business owners in London say it's on the bounce and order books are full. That's on the street where people are real and real things are happening. Not Carney with his British Flag waving. Now I know my tiny insight is worth nothing overall, I merely highlight said business owners had to stop building houses to sell, more for rent if they could find the right cheap money, what with the huge shortage of homes and all....

I agree it's down from here, and have a lot of money where my mouth is, but I don't see this move up as unreasonable, not by any means.
  • #354,110
  • Nov 24, 2013 9:56pm Nov 24, 2013 9:56pm
Quoting Pumpndump
{quote} That's my Great British Pound you talk of, and if we talk relative terms i.e ten/twenty years or so, a move up from here would not surprise me one bit lets look at gbp when it was 2/1 on the dollar and 3/2 on the euro.....we are not going back far my good man. Things are by no means the same as then, I'm just saying keep a broad mind, and for what it's worth all of my fellow medium sized business owners in London say it's on the bounce and order books are full. That's on the street where people are real and real things are happening. Not...
Throw into the mix traders fooled by the mainstream media into thinking QE is going to come to an end anytime soon and there could be blood on the market streets. Bernanke has always maintained his position of data dependancy with regards to ending QE, but the media twisted and turned his words so much people could no longer fathom truth from fiction.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #354,111
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:15pm Nov 24, 2013 10:15pm
shorted @1.6235. risking 50 with target 400 @1.5835
  • #354,112
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:33pm Nov 24, 2013 10:33pm
Quoting ffleo
{quote} Have faith, mate. 6300/6350 high probability to cap it. reasons: 1) Resistance 6300 knocked it down many times in the last two years, and daily never closed above it after many tries. 2) multi-year descending trendline above meets with 6300. 3) price fell off ascending wedge from the lower trendline and now trying to retouch it, but the line meets the above two conditions at 6300. The confluence of the above 3 conditions provides strong resistance at 6300. It may spike over 6300, but it will be knocked down again like before. {image} {image}...
If it goes to 1.63 for some reason which I don't see coming it may not stop there and might stop at 1.65. there is heavy fighting going on in GBP/JPY and once it falls 100 pips from its high this GBP rally is done for sure. GBP is strengthening against the commodity pairs but that rally is also getting faded.

My target is 1.6150-70 for today and I see it coming inspite of the bullishness in the pair
  • #354,113
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:35pm Nov 24, 2013 10:35pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} Throw into the mix traders fooled by the mainstream media into thinking QE is going to come to an end anytime soon and there could be blood on the market streets. Bernanke has always maintained his position of data dependancy with regards to ending QE, but the media twisted and turned his words so much people could no longer fathom truth from fiction.
Having said that, would love to see 5550-5370 by end of the year
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #354,114
  • Nov 24, 2013 10:35pm Nov 24, 2013 10:35pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} im worried about the gbp being stronger..that thing is on a rocket laucher

why do you hold positions for so many days and cry everyday about the GBP. I sense that you have a position open from 1.58-1.60 area
  • #354,115
  • Edited 11:18pm Nov 24, 2013 11:03pm | Edited 11:18pm
Quoting Davit
Asia pushing already does not look good for Bears.This being end of month sadly I can see serious pushing up profit taking then next month slowly going down correction. I have developed serious dislike of British pound most overrated shit currency that everyone wants.

I agree with you. There has been a huge push on GBP. Look at the past 2 weeks on G/U, G/J, G/CAD, G/AUD. G/NZd All have pushed up very high with G/J, G/AUD and G/CAD at 3-4 year highs

The problem is nobody wants any other Major currency
JPY- Printing money like no tomorrow
USD- Printing Money like no tomorrow and who knows if/when they will ever taper.
EUR- Cutting Interest rates trying to devalue itself + fears it is unstable still with another EU nation going under
CHF - If you push that up the SNB will pull another Sept 2011 move and devalue itself and print "unlimited amounts"

So what are the banks left with?? only GBP by default. It is not that the GBP economy is strong as much as all the others are in a race to the bottom to devalue themselves to boost their export economies.

Also add on that "minor" currencies like AUD and NZD in the past few weeks have had their central banks announce they feel their currency is overvalued - again a race to the bottom to get weaker than everyone else
  • #354,116
  • Nov 24, 2013 11:35pm Nov 24, 2013 11:35pm
I am trying something new with my position on this one.

I discovered this afternoon, just after this re opened for the week, that I could actually hold simultaneously opposed positions. One position, purchased via non-commission and a second position purchased via commission.

I already had a position about 60 pips in the money going UP. To protect that profit, I sold an equal number of positions going down. At this point then, my position on GBPUSD is neutral.

I'm hoping if I play this right, I'll buy back my sell position near the bottom, as it corrects down some, and then start making money again with my buy position.

I'm anxious to see how this will work out.
  • #354,117
  • Nov 24, 2013 11:57pm Nov 24, 2013 11:57pm
@Baggi, if everyone where to find the bottom in a trend, everyone would have been millionaire by now.. the strategy you mentioned is known to all and it is a big blunder if you do that.. you will never be able to get off that without sacrificing either a long or a short position. trust me it doesn't work..
  • #354,118
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:24am Nov 25, 2013 12:24am
Quoting veer2010
@Baggi, if everyone where to find the bottom in a trend, everyone would have been millionaire by now.. the strategy you mentioned is known to all and it is a big blunder if you do that.. you will never be able to get off that without sacrificing either a long or a short position. trust me it doesn't work..

So far, it seems like it's the same as if I'd sold my long position and not purchased the short position.
  • #354,119
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:34am Nov 25, 2013 12:34am
@Baggi, example.. say you shorted gbp/jpy at 160 but the price went up to 164 and you bought there to restrict your loss to 400 pips and you want to play this in your mentioned strategy..say price retreat and goes to 158 and you close your short.. now what you're doing is you want the price to make an upward move so that you can close that long position and overall make some profit, could be minimal..
But, what if price goes further below 158? i bet your legs will start to shake.. your long at 164 may bring you a lot of pain..
  • #354,120
  • Nov 25, 2013 12:51am Nov 25, 2013 12:51am
Yes, I understand exactly how the math works on this.

Let's say we do it your way.

We move out of our short at 164 with a 400 pip loss. Then we buy long because we think this thing is going to keep moving in that direction.

Then it goes to 158. Now we're 1000 pips down.
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