Cable Update (GBPUSD)

see you later Nav, have a good weekend mate

have a good weekend too pal

And now that it's closed above? What now?

Something has to give soon..

SH!!!!!!!TE

lol.....

Waiting for TL break

soon.....?!

W/e review

The Weekly candle closes as another hammer with a bullish body (as last week.) and was an upside follow through on last week's candle. A fractal swing L on this t/f @ 5853 is created by the close of this candle. The t/f remains in a general opa uptrend and price closes above both it's 100 and 200sma's and the 100 is converging on the 200 from just below it. Weekly pip range was only 165, well below last week's 281 and only 63% of 20 week atr (259.) A new ascending trend line is created by this fractal swing L on this t/f joining it and 4811 below it.

Friday's Daily candle closes like the weekly - a hammer with bullish body and close is just 1pip off the hi of the candle - an upside follow through on Thursday's hammer/thrust that basically followed 3 days of indecision in this pairing. No fractal swing is created by the close of the candle - the last being the HL at 6058. The t/f is showing more recent strength within the overall 6259-5853 range it is still existing in, with a H above the last LH and a HL now...and there will be a fractal HH whenever that develops. Price closes above it's 100 and 200 sma's on this t/f, and the 100 is pointing up and crossed above the 200. Pip range on Friday was only 48, much less than Thursday's 128, and only 47% of the 20 day atr (10.) - This metric usually falls going into the end of the year and has done so from a mid 130's high earlier in the year.

The 4hr and 1hr t/f's finish the week in general opa uptrends and price closed very close to their last candle highs. Price closed above the 100- and 200sma's on both t/f's and 1hr sees 100 crossed above 200 and both pointing up, whilst 4hr sees 100 below 200 but converging on it and both pointing up.

NB: opa = overall price action-fractal swing hi/lo analysis

Summary

So, per last week's w/e review price did indeed make more upside progress from last week's close - the greater probability. Still some insist that shorting is the better option but this far they have been wrong and have been wrong for some time - some already stopped out of positions, some nursing underwater positions and hoping that the top of the monthly triangle and other potential resistance up and beyond the 6256/59 hi , as well presumably as a change to the underlying and increasing Uk / US fundamentals narrative/ environment causes the market to start agreeing with their viewpoint. (85% of lots on this site's trade explorer end the week short.)

Taking into consideration the technical conditions on the t/f's mentioned above the greater probability for next week appears to be an upside follow through on this week's close and probably above that previous minor weekly/daily/4hr swing hi at 6256/59...this said there are a lot of potential resistance factors leading up to there and overhead so a pullback is probably the 2nd most likely probability. Price is looking a bit overbought on 4hr, but more probably 1hr at the close...but this is to a large extent a subjective term based on indicator settings.

Fundamentals

The forthcoming week sees U.s Thanksgiving Bank Hol and traditional long 'holiday w/e' so we will probably see a flattening of volume (possibly liquidity) on Thursday, Friday and into the following Monday. It begins the 4 week lead into Christmas and certainly this pattern may continue if past years are a guide. Inflation report hearings in Uk on Tues, followed by 2nd estimate Q3 GDP on Weds and Carney speaking Thursday sums up the known event risks for this side of the Atlantic that may or may not have an influence on this pairing. State-side, a light week running into Thanksgiving, housing data Mon and Tues with Chicago Pmi and UoM consumer sentiment on Weds are about the sum total of the known event risks there.


Catch you next week end.

G/L

[Have posted Monthly chart re the triangle (referred to above) illustration - monthly candle not closed yet....so no further comment on the technical state of that t/f until it has.]

Since October 2012, the Japanese Yen has a large impact on the FX market. The japanese keep buying everything under the sun, and all currencies not named Yen are affected. So when we analyze any currency pair, we cannot neglect the buying power of yen. Now I continue my analysis with two weekly yen charts: USD/JPY and GBP/JPY.

Both USD/JPY and GBP/JPY are at major resistance right now. If the resistance hold, that is good news for cable bears and we have targets below the current price. If the resistance cannot hold, what are the price targets for the two pairs upwards? In the GBP/JPY chart, the price most likely will hit the 38.2% fib aligned with the ascending trendline at levels 168.32. In the USD/JPY chart, the price can hit either 104, or hit the 61.8% fib aligned with the ascending trendline at 105. 55. This will give cable at 168.32/104 = 1.6185 or 168.32/105.55 = 1.5947. If we give GBP/JPY a little overshoot to 170, that would give cable at 1.6346 or 1.6106. So the top side of cable is about 1.6350.
What about the lower side of cable when the yen pairs begin to drop? The GBP/JPY has a lower target at 156.8 and 148.75, and the USD/JPY has a lower target of 98.7 and 96, this would lead to two targets for cable at 156.8/98.7=1.5886, and 148.75/96=1.5495. So the lower targets of cable are 1.5880 and 1.5500.

I hope this image gives some view

GU Daily

Not without some discussion

For UJ third Standard deviation (3SD) is at 103.7...thereafter are all psychological numbers. For GU 1.645 then 1SD 1.6740. ...all on weekly chart and 5Y period

Drawan on weekly chart.
Trendline shows a level of 1.6249 as topping out level

think I have chart show 1.645 closest target is...sure am I to you have same chart course of.

Thats it! Good stuff. People need to understand this that the easy trade, is usually the one you want to be on the other side of. Trends continue longer than retail thinks and reversals happen right when all the retails finally enter with the trend. Example is hte EurUsd. I can tell you just by looking at this chart that its going long, but I bet retails all thinking as it slowly worked its way up that its gona eventually drop, then it dropped on the news reaction and we got even more shorts stuck and locked in. 2 days after that, boom! goes long again. The overall daily trend is up. They continue longer than expected. Pretty much all the stats are perfect to do the opposite of. USD is seasonally weak. Dont trade seasons alone of course, but when the chart correlates wit hthe christmas music, you step on that gas pedal against the dollar.

As ever, bbmac, concisely constructed critique. Hope all is well with you.

Me, well, busy writing elsewhere, and so not submitting my usual polemic to accompany my analysis. That stated, I am in the bull camp for Cable - have been for a while, but am somewhat bias in assessment as I am short EG. I am also undecided about Dollar strength, but cannot commit the time to any visceral commentary concerning the funnies.

Anyway, my six charts' worth - Cable for 3 and Dollar for the reamainder_23.11.13

Notice : Monday 8:00 GMT new tactics will be running , this because of holidays liquidation ,think in long trade SELL as you can EUR & GBP in short make opposite.

Oil price may fall very soon, as the Middle East is going to reach a temporary peaceful situation. Then, we can see a stronger USD.

im worried about the gbp being stronger..that thing is on a rocket laucher

Good read!

http://www.openeuropeblog.blogspot.c...ack-to-qe.html

Thank you