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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #353,961
  • Nov 21, 2013 9:25pm Nov 21, 2013 9:25pm
Quoting TauTrader
Good day, Probably will go for 1.6160 - 1.6180. Nothing else for it to chase... Earlier short was closed before the rise. Started short again from 1.6137. Regards {image}
Good day,

Yip. Sorted out the stops sitting there.

Regards
  • #353,962
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:15pm Nov 21, 2013 10:15pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
Rolling all over 1.6178 is almost a done deal the way things look as of right now... What remains to be seen is how stops are lined up above there that will tell the story about how fast or not the break will move levels... For now enjoy sustained orderly smooth market action....the way it has to be all the time but isn't...
Good day to you, GM

I follow retail stops through one of the larger brokers in Europe. It does give a little guidance as to general sentiment. We are currently sitting with massive retail short positions still active. Below a snapshot of where those stops are placed. Now - obviously - these change as traders exit or TP - but we have thousands of stops sitting between 1.6210 and 1.6270, whilst very little is going on below price in terms of long stops.

This is not good for bears - in my opinion. On the book, there are over 21'000 shorts stops in place, as opposed to only 2'700 long stops. Not all positions use stop loss - so total book ( including positions without stop loss) is currently showing 32'400 shorts vs. 5'900 longs.

I'm short - but will look to buy a dip here to counter and preserve.

Regards
Attached Image
  • #353,963
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:34pm Nov 21, 2013 10:34pm
Quoting calderone
{image}
Hi calderone,
The real time strength is very useful, where do u get it.
Can you pls send us the link. TQ.
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #353,964
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:38pm Nov 21, 2013 10:38pm
Quoting Cowboy11
{quote} Hi calderone, The real time strength is very useful, where do u get it. Can you pls send us the link. TQ.
Sending you a pm. It's proprietary so I don't want to break any rules posting it here.
  • #353,965
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:49pm Nov 21, 2013 10:49pm
GU 1H consolidation pattern pennant (either direction)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD1H.png Size: 27 KB
  • #353,966
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:51pm Nov 21, 2013 10:51pm
A point just above of interest for the bears.

I have long and shorts to preserve also.
Note: the lack of any significant retrace over the past 2 weeks is a hint of a bearish reversal coming soon in my mind and experience. Bearish harmonic nearly completed.

If we break down out of the weekly congestion zone which co-incides on the transverese with last years 12 week congestion zone from May-July, then have targets at fibs below with a special interest in the 50 fib for obvious reasons of break out conflunces on daily/weekly and monthly and support.

I find this pair fascinating

Cheers...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdweekly.png Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdweekly1.png Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdmonthly.png Size: 29 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #353,967
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:52pm Nov 21, 2013 10:52pm
The market is straggling whether to support U or G. Anyhow, stay away from this pair and both of them fight against others.
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #353,968
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:06pm Nov 21, 2013 11:06pm
Quoting JimmyC
GU 1H consolidation pattern pennant (either direction) {image}

Not that anything is ever predicted 100% in the markets, but generally, a pennant is a continuation pattern.
  • #353,969
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:08pm Nov 21, 2013 11:08pm
Then if and when we break back into the long candle support/resistance zone, the transverese indicates the drop could be quick.
very keen to see todays and next weeks action.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdweekly.png Size: 31 KB
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  • #353,970
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:17pm Nov 21, 2013 11:17pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Then if and when we break back into the long candle support/resistance zone, the transverese indicates the drop could be quick. very keen to see todays and next weeks action. {image}
you mean that BP will go down i am short from 1.6185 is that ok my stop loss is 1.6250 and t/p is 1.6120.
MRMALIK1
  • #353,971
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:26pm Nov 21, 2013 11:26pm
Ahhh it's been such a terrible mistake to short GU lately. Eu too for most part. Shame I had not just focused on AU, would have done absurdly well past couple weeks. Like scary well.


Oh well Gotta try to not bankrupt myself and stay alive to see another day for high probability trending momentum set ups.

Something tells me we're going to get a lot of JPY short set ups in coming weeks. Hopefully will be alive to take advantage of them.
  • #353,972
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:32pm Nov 21, 2013 11:32pm
Quoting calderone
{quote} Sending you a pm. It's proprietary so I don't want to break any rules posting it here.
Thanks a lot. Will study and make good use out from it.
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #353,973
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:40pm Nov 21, 2013 11:40pm
Quoting mrmalik1
{quote} you mean that BP will go down i am short from 1.6185 is that ok my stop loss is 1.6250 and t/p is 1.6120.
From what I can see, 6250 would be cutting it very fine.
If it were me, I would put SL above the high of Sept I think it is, as a SL hit there would negate the analysis.
Is pound going down?
thats a rather direct question.
Who knows?
I just "think" it is.

EDIT: I would put SL above October high, the highest high so far this quarter.
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #353,974
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:49pm Nov 21, 2013 11:49pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} From what I can see, 6250 would be cutting it very fine. If it were me, I would put SL above the high of Sept I think it is, as a SL hit there would negate the analysis. Is pound going down? thats a rather direct question. Who knows? I just "think" it is. EDIT: I would put SL above October high, the highest high so far this quarter.

6250 is not possible today. GBP had its fair run. now time to take stops at 1.6150 and 1.6120
  • #353,975
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:51pm Nov 21, 2013 11:51pm

Quoting Baggi
{quote} Not that anything is ever predicted 100% in the markets, but generally, a pennant is a continuation pattern.
Generally correct yes
  • #353,976
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:55pm Nov 21, 2013 11:55pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Generally correct yes
The time of day with this one is a problem. I'm not going to trade it... The probability here is continuation of consolidation

.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD1H.png Size: 27 KB
  • #353,977
  • Nov 22, 2013 12:04am Nov 22, 2013 12:04am
Yeah, it seems to me that going down would be easier at this point than up. Seems to be a lot of pressure against an upward move.

Which makes me keep asking myself, "Why am I long?"
  • #353,978
  • Nov 22, 2013 12:09am Nov 22, 2013 12:09am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} 6250 is not possible today. GBP had its fair run. now time to take stops at 1.6150 and 1.6120
6250 not possible?

Those are strong words in an unregulated market.

I never said we would get to 6250.

I would say the "chances" are we target one of these retest points before the day is out. (around 6230/40)

And if so, I would agree with you, I would think pound has had its run.

But let's see...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddaily1.png Size: 30 KB
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  • #353,979
  • Nov 22, 2013 12:12am Nov 22, 2013 12:12am
Quoting Baggi
Yeah, it seems to me that going down would be easier at this point than up. Seems to be a lot of pressure against an upward move. Which makes me keep asking myself, "Why am I long?"
Where do you see this pressure?

I am even long and shorts, so not fussed, but seems to be going up to me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh1.png Size: 23 KB
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  • #353,980
  • Nov 22, 2013 12:15am Nov 22, 2013 12:15am
with no significant news for this pair today, it could just keep drifting up 30-50 pips without any major lower TF swings
Come with me if you want to live....
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