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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #353,861
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:07am Nov 21, 2013 10:07am
Those holding longer term short positions are either see-ing something I am not (technically and fundamentally) or they are most likely toast from what I can judge as to the most likely general future direction of this pairing for a time ! We'll see what happens over forthcoming days/weeks/months...right now there is some indecision within this daily range although today is shaping up bullishly so far.

Best Wishes.
it's all gone a bit........
  • #353,862
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:09am Nov 21, 2013 10:09am
Quoting akki300986
{quote} i am sorry i tried but couldn't paste the picture.. i will try my best to explain look how around aug the red line which is risk adjusted yield for GBP crossed the USD yields.. if u just look at GBP/USD it was around this time in aug that it started rising massively and in august it was around 1.51... always remember fixed income market is the smartest and most sophisticated market, mostly because retailers and inexperienced player don't participate in it.. so this rise in GBP is not some voodo or manipulation but UK offering better risk...

how to be applied on uj / eg / eu ?
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #353,863
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:14am Nov 21, 2013 10:14am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} how to be applied on uj / eg / eu ?
same logic.. dont apply to joy though as jpy is a diff beast which defies fundamentals!!

EU - see that how the diff reduced between usd and euro line from august. which means US offering less better risk adjusted returns than europe hence e/u went up.. what we are seeing now is that US yields are rising but eu is flat hence we see e/u going down..

i am long e/u coz i am speculating yellow eu line to start going up..

same logic apply to others.. this help u understand if what has happened was fundamental or not.. this doesnt predict what will happen in future but helps u understand how strongly to fight what has happened in the past!

hope that helps
  • #353,864
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:15am Nov 21, 2013 10:15am
Quoting petetong
Those holding longer term short positions are either see-ing something I am not (technically and fundamentally) or they are most likely toast from what I can judge as to the most likely general future direction of this pairing for a time ! We'll see what happens over forthcoming days/weeks/months...right now there is some indecision within this daily range although today is shaping up bullishly so far. Best Wishes.
Sir, Longer term GU is in my sell zone. So selling. Just have to find the best spots for a positive outcome. 1.5562 is waiting for us - some day. I cannot long here. We can also mark 1.6066 as a worst case scenario.

But you do as you see fit. Each of us remains in charge of our actions. 100%. I'm very flexible and will counter as soon as I see a reason to.

All the best
  • #353,865
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:18am Nov 21, 2013 10:18am
Quoting petetong
Can anyone tell me any part of this Monthly chart that suggests shorting is a better answer ?...surely a break north of the triangle looks more likely right now ?...ie still rangy but with recent strength. Weekly is in a technical uptrend up trend after 2 x false breaks south of the narrowest consolidation/range channel and a move back up toward top of that channel...but again it presently looks more likely to have a break north of it. Daily is ranging with recent strength in that range at top of a move north from 4811 low. Yes there is potential...
I agree with your sentiment... All I see is a range on the daily/weekly which is ready to break either for the next leg up or to break down. If economic numbers continue to improve, I say up, otherwise down. A move up should be capped around 1.7.
  • #353,866
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:21am Nov 21, 2013 10:21am
Quoting akki300986
{quote} same logic.. dont apply to joy though as jpy is a diff beast which defies fundamentals!! EU - see that how the diff reduced between usd and euro line from august. which means US offering less better risk adjusted returns than europe hence e/u went up.. what we are seeing now is that US yields are rising but eu is flat hence we see e/u going down.. i am long e/u coz i am speculating yellow eu line to start going up.. same logic apply to others.. this help u understand if what has happened was fundamental or not.. this doesnt predict what...
oooghhh
then why ms saying short gu down to something yesterday?
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #353,867
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:25am Nov 21, 2013 10:25am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} oooghhh then why ms saying short gu down to something yesterday?
please read page 17 in front of gbp. MS says this

"The BoE’s inflation report was upbeat on the economy, and markets honed in on the improvement in the unemployment, outlook, bringing forward the timing of the first hike. However, we think the push back in the timing of hitting the inflation knockout is important, as the BoE is unlikely to tighten, even if unemployment reaches the threshold, if inflation is not above target. As such, we are cautious on recent gains in GBP. We like selling EURGBP but are cautious on GBPUSD"


you dont have to understand everythign said the point is what i said in my earlier post.. these lines just tell u how fundamental was the past move but tells u nothing abt what will happen on future. so MS is just cautious and expecting UK's line to come down.. they are still thinking and not sure.. but each forms his own opinion..

u have to read a lot my friend to form your own opinion!! i am just trying to help u think that selling sterling is not as easy as you think.. dont think its at 1.61 thats way too high.. underlying fundamentals have changed!!
  • #353,868
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:28am Nov 21, 2013 10:28am
gbp/usd has some orders at 65. if it does not take out it will reverse atleast till 25
  • #353,869
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:39am Nov 21, 2013 10:39am
Quoting karelk
{quote} The way I see this is that the cross rate is calculated as a combined transaction involving dollars (so buying JPY with CHF means buying USD first, then using these to buy JPY). dollar strength -> usdjpy up & usdchf up by the same % -> chfjpy no change I may be missing something so wouldn't mind if you fill in the missing info

my friend.. it depend on the correlation in which the market is at the moment... and the volatility.. the original changes are usdjpy, usdchf.. that is right... chfjpy is a combination of both (usdjpy : usdchf) ATM 100.92 / 0.9143 = 110.38 (didnt do the exact calculation just watched the prices)

i will make an easy example, but before we fix some points..

assume that the market in that moment is just driven by USD (dollar-centered)

usdjpy will go up and usdchf will go up as well.

Now... having a look at the historical volatility USDJPY is more volatile than usdchf, so assuming that they both go up boosted by that driver only it is reasonable to assume that usdjpy will go up little bit more. In other words jpy will be weaker than chf. Put a weaker number (a number that decreases fast) at the denominator and a little bit stronger number (a number that will decrease less) and u will have a result that is an increasing number

will make an example

10/9 = 1.1
9/7 = 1.28
8/5= 1.6 ... and so on. if u have a look today uasjpy went up, usdchf got little weaker, chfjpy went up, in percentage even more than usdjpy

Remember that the basic idea is that the market in that moment is just driven by dollar strenght...

Hope i was clear enough, sorry today im very tired.. hope that my english was good enough, considering that here we have people bitch@ng even about proper english
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #353,870
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:53am Nov 21, 2013 10:53am
As a side note... fundamentals (FUNNYMENTALS) are rather interesting game. Its good to know it as for personal culture, but mostly funnymentals are ok because as ALL the economists, they are 100% right in explained what happened IN THE PAST...

we try not to do prevision on the markets, we play the odds judging from patterns and buy/sell areas.. (the market tend to repeat itself, but with some little differences most of the times).

In a market driven just by funnymentals... assuming that there isnt any smartpants like in this thread, there wouldn't be a market to trade because everybody see the same stuff. Something more interesting is the "game theory applied" to markets... (thats why forexfactory gives expectations on news-data). that is a more dynamic approach to funnymentals data (which i didnt see it here.. sorry)... even because obviously one of the assumption of game theory is that everybody has the same info and know all the odds (which we dont)

what we poor silly people can do is.. trade charts... because price itself is the only truth u can see.

Trading funnymentals, u should short euro all ur life (3 country in the eurozone were almost failing -spain and italy are among the biggest ones- and the way that governments used not to let the countries fail was NOT to boost economic growth, but to raise taxes in paces where unemployment is already very high). U should long usdjpy (japanese public debt is a joke... ) and so on... thigs arent like this.

ok im off now... there wont be any further explanations about these stuff... if u want to know more, buy books and read it!!
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #353,871
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:08am Nov 21, 2013 11:08am
Quoting dario1002
In a market driven just by funnymentals... assuming that there isnt any smartpants like in this thread, there wouldn't be a market to trade because everybody see the same stuff. Something more interesting is the "game theory applied" to markets... (thats why forexfactory gives expectations on news-data). that is a more dynamic approach to funnymentals data (which i didnt see it here.. sorry)... even because obviously one of the assumption of game theory is that everybody has the same info and know all the odds (which...

hey smartypants.. putting heavy words around and saying crappy things... i ignored your previous post but now that u have called me a smartypant i will have to get back at you

1) your CHF JPY explanation was wrong. u said underlying assupntion is only dollar strength but used JPY weakness to explain it. what has heppend in the market today is JPY weakenss and not dollar strength hence usdjpy and chfjpy up the same amopunt almost.. i dont belive in dolalr index but still have a look to get an idea!

2) everyone see the same stuff --- hahaha laughable..the biggest bets/trades made in the history were fundamental and not everyone saw the ame thing.. soros was shorting pound before everyone was, paulson was buying CDS when everyone else was buying CDO's, howard marks bought ditressed debt in 2008 when everyone was selling.. and here too someone was buying gbp/usd at 1.51 when most were selling.. coz everyone saw different things and probabilities and timelines were completely subjective!!!

3) Game Theory - everyone knows all the odds.. lets play prisoners dilemna pls.. what are my odds of being selfish?? what ar emy iodds of being irrational? game theory is purely subjective and no one know ODDS...

do u wanna play an easier game? lets play rock paper scissor.. what ar emy odds of playing rock? 1.3rd?? depends on my mood no??
  • #353,872
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:31am Nov 21, 2013 11:31am
I can't believe I allowed the down move to shake me out last night. Dumb.

Instead of losing about $150, I'd be up around $800 this morning.

Bah. This is what happens when fear rules your trading. I need to program a robot to do all my trading for me and get rid of all these silly fear and greed emotions.
  • #353,873
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:33am Nov 21, 2013 11:33am
All this bickering... another reason why I rarely frequent these forums anymore. Everyone is wasting their time reading and posting in here when they could spend their valuable time reading their own charts to find their OWN trades.

Goodbye and good luck!
  • #353,874
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:48am Nov 21, 2013 11:48am
Cable on the move today threatening yesterday's bearish "shooting star" to be creamed royally.
Would have prolly risen yesterday already, has it not been for the rumors about draghi the drag queen's machinations...anyway...
solid support on the move up....straight forward-no drama market action....
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #353,875
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:52am Nov 21, 2013 11:52am
Quoting bbakker
All this bickering... another reason why I rarely frequent these forums anymore. Everyone is wasting their time reading and posting in here when they could spend their valuable time reading their own charts to find their OWN trades. Goodbye and good luck!

ditto.. sorry to the thread for the mess... wont get caught in it anymore
I don't want a job, i want money!
  • #353,876
  • Nov 21, 2013 11:56am Nov 21, 2013 11:56am
Quoting Baggi
I can't believe I allowed the down move to shake me out last night. Dumb. Instead of losing about $150, I'd be up around $800 this morning. Bah. This is what happens when fear rules your trading. I need to program a robot to do all my trading for me and get rid of all these silly fear and greed emotions.
This sideways movement that has been taking place this week tests nearly everyones resolve. Heck, I have a tried and true exit plan (which I'm still following), and this movement has made me think twice as well. I've hung in there... In the end, all you can do is trust your plan.
  • #353,877
  • Nov 21, 2013 12:21pm Nov 21, 2013 12:21pm
100 pips up in one day. Not much to say for bears resistance at 1.6177 [highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]psychological barrier at 1.6200 [/highlight]
  • #353,878
  • Nov 21, 2013 12:24pm Nov 21, 2013 12:24pm
...anymore of this bickering, and swinging of one's pip around, and I'll be calling in your mothers to give you all a clip around the ear.

Come on Gents - and ladies, if present - this thread was doing okay for a while.

Indeed, being a ‘funny-fan’ myself, I was enjoying the debate concerning fundamentals - Dario1002, akki300986, PipTrapper, JeremyWS and so on - although somewhat disappointed with the combative, as opposed to considered/structured presentation of current understanding by some contributors. None of us know everything, and very often find that what we think we understand, has yet additional layers of complexity to it.

Better to offer one’s understanding in moderated tone, than to assert one’s opinion forcefully.
Author of: For Pip's Sake! (Available at Amazon... :-) )
  • #353,879
  • Nov 21, 2013 12:47pm Nov 21, 2013 12:47pm
Howzit GU!

Bit of entertainment in here tonight.

I'm short off TL, Bear divergence @ TL 1.61704 SL 1.618 target is open don't think I'll do better than 1.611. or BE

I'm not going to participate in the debate I'm a pure tech.

Not bright enough to do fundies.


Maybe better to set SL @ BE and sleep.

@45 Condor


G/L
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #353,880
  • Nov 21, 2013 12:55pm Nov 21, 2013 12:55pm
Absolutely agree! all points of views are welcome - be they fundamental or technical .

Noone has a monopoly on being right. As long as the assertions and counter-assertions made are presented in a civilized manner, they all add color to the discussion and are definitely stimulating and refreshing.
This is what a forum is all about in the first place.

Trade Well All!
Hear the music before the song is over ...
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