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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #353,841
  • Nov 21, 2013 7:42am Nov 21, 2013 7:42am
a sign that I'm looking at candles for to long - i'm repeating myself - sorry

Quoting InNeedOfHelp
I thought this would go down based on news. I like reading the posts in this room when the market is slow - but why in the past week has there been so many arguments? Surely we are all here for a bit of light relief and to make money - i'm new - only been doing this for 4 months but surely we are all here to make money?
  • #353,842
  • Nov 21, 2013 7:42am Nov 21, 2013 7:42am
Quoting InNeedOfHelp
I thought this would go down based on news. I like reading the posts in this room when the market is slow - but why in the past week has there been so many arguments? Surely we are all here for a bit of light relief and to make money - i'm new - only been doing this for 4 months but surely we are all here to make money?
ego & hope <> making money!

and ego is source of arguments

speaking from personal experience...
  • #353,843
  • Nov 21, 2013 7:46am Nov 21, 2013 7:46am
Quoting akki300986
{quote} hey i dont know what ur problem is.. m sure we all can go back and check what we all wrote U SAID - markets will humble him and eh has a HUGE ego ... i - ignored - me being polite U said - markets not obeying technicals i - corrected and mentioned markets at best might follow fundamentals/technicals. it never obeys.. if it obeys anything, any fukr can read the law of obedience and make millions.. point i just corrected u. no insult thrown u said - i dont even know the diff, talking rubbish etc etc to be honest i have been insulted more by...

Hey akki300986, I really dont see why you're trying so hard to see reason with an anonymous person on the net who at that point in time is probably jerking off! The whole concept of a f forum actually sucks if you ask me, which is why I dont post my trades anymore, the only reason i peep in once in a while is purely boredom and entertainment. Unlike the early 2000, its now populated by a bunch of royal assholes.
  • #353,844
  • Nov 21, 2013 7:53am Nov 21, 2013 7:53am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} look man ..i dont know u ..im sorry but technical traders follow charts and fundamentalist dont need charts..charts are a leading indicator to the fundamentals..u cannot trade fundamentals short term and expect great results.. trading news is trading emotions.. im sorry i have upset u..not my intention..u have a great day!!..im off to work
you too- have a nice day!

but since there are many technical boys here i don't want anyone reading his page to be wrongly influenced purely due to majority. if u say something i don't agree, i put my view on for him/her to read and vice verse

Technical are leading indicator to funmdamentals --- let me present to u the cycle of events, disagree if u want to

1) people spot change in economic fundamentals in coming months and start buying a ccy.
2) since these guys sopt these changes first ,the level they start buying the ccy is usually low levels
3) more people spot the changes and start buying making ccy bust/approach some resistances
4) technical traders spot broken resistances and join the buying effort now buying ccy.. at this point some of the early fundy guys are seeing their positions to these technical guys
5) since its easier for retail traders to use technical analysis, these guys spot broken resistances and also start buying. at this point more initial fundy guys are selling
6) this coordinated buying pushes ccy to a level where all big fundy players dump their positions and technical and retailer are left holding the bags
7) and then people cry "manipulation manipulation"

this repeats on the way down..
  • #353,845
  • Nov 21, 2013 7:56am Nov 21, 2013 7:56am
I'm an experienced trader and I haven't opened a longer term short position (s) like many of your so called 'experienced' traders here ..although I do go short even in a rising market - I also go long of course ! (we know who they are...they keep trying to convince us that shorting is the better longer term option for this pairing and they will be right or wrong - time will tell as it always does.) I think technicals are being obeyed - it just depends how you read them and on what t/f. Fact is to hold any kind of long/longer term position based on the monthly is difficult as it is ranging but recent strength suggest a long position may be better, ......on the weekly - you'd have to be long .....and on daily - same as the monthly - rangy with recent strength followed by a few days of indecision - all within that range.)

Best Wishes

Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} all the experienced trader have shorted unfortunately we are seeing a market condition where technicals are not being obeyed..market is simply buying pounds
it's all gone a bit........
  • #353,846
  • Nov 21, 2013 7:59am Nov 21, 2013 7:59am
This is not right- for eg I am a technical trader and I am not getting killed...it depends on how you read the technicals and on what t/f (s) For those currently short - a lot will be underwater and some stopped out of some longer term trades absolutely.

Best Wishes.

Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} dude u are completely talking rubbish honestly..u dont even know the difference between a technical trader and fundamental trader..ok i used the word obey..perhaps wrong but the bottom line is this currency is not respecting technicals at this point in time.. that has nothing to do with me not accepting what i see fact is technical traders right now are getting killed ..why?
it's all gone a bit........
  • #353,847
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:01am Nov 21, 2013 8:01am
These are very good points - inexperienced fundie traders would do well to note them.

Best Wishes.

Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} look man ..i dont know u ..im sorry but technical traders follow charts and fundamentalist dont need charts..charts are a leading indicator to the fundamentals..u cannot trade fundamentals short term and expect great results.. trading news is trading emotions.. im sorry i have upset u..not my intention..u have a great day!!..im off to work
it's all gone a bit........
  • #353,848
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:23am Nov 21, 2013 8:23am
Can anyone tell me any part of this Monthly chart that suggests shorting is a better answer ?...surely a break north of the triangle looks more likely right now ?...ie still rangy but with recent strength.

Weekly is in a technical uptrend up trend after 2 x false breaks south of the narrowest consolidation/range channel and a move back up toward top of that channel...but again it presently looks more likely to have a break north of it.

Daily is ranging with recent strength in that range at top of a move north from 4811 low.

Yes there is potential resistance/supply overhead (always) but these longer term traders presumably looking at monthly, weekly and possibly daily must be see-ing something else. We all read it differently I guess. In the end it doesn't matter to me as I don't hold long/longer term positions...but like to see the bigger picture.

Best Wishes
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mthly...jpg Size: 100 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: wkly....jpg Size: 112 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: dly....jpg Size: 120 KB
it's all gone a bit........
  • #353,849
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:37am Nov 21, 2013 8:37am
you bule kok eyel2an...
you no cetho..
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #353,850
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:53am Nov 21, 2013 8:53am
Quoting ud1nh0
you bule kok eyel2an... you no cetho..

What are you, drunk?
  • #353,851
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:57am Nov 21, 2013 8:57am
Quoting Jorsik
{quote} What are you, drunk?
i mean i have chart. pls comment
about suggested sl and the pattern
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-w1-oanda-division1.png Size: 42 KB
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #353,852
  • Nov 21, 2013 9:15am Nov 21, 2013 9:15am
Dollar Index is in trouble
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: [USDX]H2-3.png Size: 97 KB
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #353,853
  • Edited Oct 7, 2024 12:09am Nov 21, 2013 9:36am | Edited Oct 7, 2024 12:09am
if cant read the entire thing then i suggest do look at page 23, exhibit 2
cheers!


{ copyrighted attachment deleted by staff }
  • #353,854
  • Nov 21, 2013 9:45am Nov 21, 2013 9:45am
Quoting akki300986
if cant read the entire thing then i suggest do look at page 23, exhibit 2 cheers! {image}
looking at it but dont understand
14QDuJtV7okxhBzC86FwawaR6tV5LvetLq
  • #353,855
  • Nov 21, 2013 9:57am Nov 21, 2013 9:57am
Quoting akki300986
if cant read the entire thing then i suggest do look at page 23, exhibit 2 cheers! {image}
Thanks a lot!
fortis fortuna adiuvat
  • #353,856
  • Nov 21, 2013 9:58am Nov 21, 2013 9:58am
Quoting ud1nh0
{quote} looking at it but dont understand
i am sorry i tried but couldn't paste the picture.. i will try my best to explain

look how around aug the red line which is risk adjusted yield for GBP crossed the USD yields..

if u just look at GBP/USD it was around this time in aug that it started rising massively and in august it was around 1.51...

always remember fixed income market is the smartest and most sophisticated market, mostly because retailers and inexperienced player don't participate in it..

so this rise in GBP is not some voodo or manipulation but UK offering better risk adjusted yields than US and hence people are buying it..

i know this doesn't mean anything for short term traders but atleast this puts things into perspective that this move up is not built on air and is not a JOKE!

hence please be light when countering this move
  • #353,857
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:01am Nov 21, 2013 10:01am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} if you went short you would like price not go above the yellow box in the following chart. I also would like it not to, because it will help my cable shorts. {image}
the yellow area is now history
  • #353,858
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:04am Nov 21, 2013 10:04am
Quoting dario1002
{quote} ... dollar strenght-> usdjpy up-> chfjpy up ...
The way I see this is that the cross rate is calculated as a combined transaction involving dollars (so buying JPY with CHF means buying USD first, then using these to buy JPY).

dollar strength -> usdjpy up & usdchf up by the same % -> chfjpy no change

I may be missing something so wouldn't mind if you fill in the missing info
  • #353,859
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:05am Nov 21, 2013 10:05am
Quoting karelk
{quote} The way I see this is that the cross rate is calculated as a combined transaction involving dollars (so buying JPY with CHF means buying USD first, then using these to buy JPY). dollar strength -> usdjpy up & usdchf up by the same % -> chfjpy no change I may be missing something so wouldn't mind if you fill in the missing info

you are right hence why i ignored his comment

the actual case is that chf/jpy = eur/jpy because eur/chf is fixed

ignore this, his comment never made sense!
  • #353,860
  • Nov 21, 2013 10:05am Nov 21, 2013 10:05am
i sold Gbp-jpy price is at 08.2009 high. for this reason i wait G-U down movement. time will tell.

trying change in very bullish currency. but worth to try.
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