EU - weakness in the air. {image}
Newbie trader
- #62,322
- Edited 2:47pm Nov 19, 2013 1:58pm | Edited 2:47pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
AU H&S In-Play,....Reminder
This is a reminder to all Sonicers that this Day chart H&S is in-play. What follows is my take on recent price action.
Note the concentrated consolidation (position building by MMs) last week. Then this week on Monday the MMs ran the price up to suck in longs so the MMs would have liquidity for shorting, and then quickly reset the price low for another go at the same strategy later. And "later" came today, when the MMs pushed the price up again to suck in longs, so the MMs would have liquidity for shorting.
There are a number of USD high impact releases coming, starting tomorrow. This could end the week lower or higher, depending on whether the MMs have finished short building, or have in mind to keep the price going higher while continuing to build their short positions. 
Why do I say the MMs are focused on short building? I do so because there are charting signs of this. The most recent are revealed in the M15 chart for today. Clearly, the three highest volume bars are associated with the three candles striking the three highest prices of the day. So what? So, buy low, sell high. The MMs clearly were selling today, ahead of all these upcoming releases. Were they selling to close longs, or where they selling to open shorts? I would say that today they were focused on selling to open shorts. Oh, they might have had vestiges of longs to close out, but because the MMs left the price high this time, I'd have to say they intend on more shorting. Why they did not reset the price lower so they could later push it back up in an attempt to suck in liquidity providing longs again? Probably because they suspect by now the longs are wise to their trickery.
Don't miss another obvious sign that the MMs are bears. What is it? Several times today the MMs pushed the price beyond the average range for this pair. And yet, the price receded to lower than the previous day's highs. Does this sound like the MMs are buyers, when they can easily lower the price when they want to buy? No, these were head fakes upwards intented to suck in longs so the MMs would have more liquidity coming in at the highest and best prices of the day to get additional short orders filled. 
Finally, why do I see AU going down when I see EU going up? The answer is in the H1 charts. AU has most notable volume at recent highs, and which is a lower high on the H1 chart. EU has most notable volume at the lows on the H1 chart. The tricky part here is that yesterday and today the higher volumes were at the highs, but I discussed that in an earlier post on EU and UChf. Basically for EU, it looks more like the MMs have been trying to suck in longs and stop them out and to suck in shorts, both to obtain liquidity for the MMs to add longs, but they are not yet ready to break out the previous H1 chart highs, not yet and not until they are ready, which might have something to do with the upcoming USD releases. Well, that is my take. I could be wrong. I have been before. Time, and only time, will tell.
This is a reminder to all Sonicers that this Day chart H&S is in-play. What follows is my take on recent price action.
Note the concentrated consolidation (position building by MMs) last week. Then this week on Monday the MMs ran the price up to suck in longs so the MMs would have liquidity for shorting, and then quickly reset the price low for another go at the same strategy later. And "later" came today, when the MMs pushed the price up again to suck in longs, so the MMs would have liquidity for shorting.
There are a number of USD high impact releases coming, starting tomorrow. This could end the week lower or higher, depending on whether the MMs have finished short building, or have in mind to keep the price going higher while continuing to build their short positions.
Why do I say the MMs are focused on short building? I do so because there are charting signs of this. The most recent are revealed in the M15 chart for today. Clearly, the three highest volume bars are associated with the three candles striking the three highest prices of the day. So what? So, buy low, sell high. The MMs clearly were selling today, ahead of all these upcoming releases. Were they selling to close longs, or where they selling to open shorts? I would say that today they were focused on selling to open shorts. Oh, they might have had vestiges of longs to close out, but because the MMs left the price high this time, I'd have to say they intend on more shorting. Why they did not reset the price lower so they could later push it back up in an attempt to suck in liquidity providing longs again? Probably because they suspect by now the longs are wise to their trickery.
Don't miss another obvious sign that the MMs are bears. What is it? Several times today the MMs pushed the price beyond the average range for this pair. And yet, the price receded to lower than the previous day's highs. Does this sound like the MMs are buyers, when they can easily lower the price when they want to buy? No, these were head fakes upwards intented to suck in longs so the MMs would have more liquidity coming in at the highest and best prices of the day to get additional short orders filled.
Finally, why do I see AU going down when I see EU going up? The answer is in the H1 charts. AU has most notable volume at recent highs, and which is a lower high on the H1 chart. EU has most notable volume at the lows on the H1 chart. The tricky part here is that yesterday and today the higher volumes were at the highs, but I discussed that in an earlier post on EU and UChf. Basically for EU, it looks more like the MMs have been trying to suck in longs and stop them out and to suck in shorts, both to obtain liquidity for the MMs to add longs, but they are not yet ready to break out the previous H1 chart highs, not yet and not until they are ready, which might have something to do with the upcoming USD releases. Well, that is my take. I could be wrong. I have been before. Time, and only time, will tell.
- #62,324
- Edited 3:05pm Nov 19, 2013 2:54pm | Edited 3:05pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #62,326
- Edited 3:30pm Nov 19, 2013 3:12pm | Edited 3:30pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #62,328
- Nov 19, 2013 3:43pm Nov 19, 2013 3:43pm
- Joined Mar 2013 | Status: In the learning phase.. | 1,377 Posts
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
- #62,329
- Edited 4:21pm Nov 19, 2013 3:55pm | Edited 4:21pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
UCHF - long. {image}
Not all high volumes at lows indicates bull MMs. They can be bear MMs simply buying to take profit on some of their shorts, which also stops the drop and makes it easier for them to start a price move higher, suck in some longs, and replace those shorts for more than they closed them.
These are strong and consistent waves heading lower. And when the price came back into the previous consolidation {building} zone between the half and lower whole numbers, the volume was exceptional. There is a lot of bear showing here. Note also that before these waves started lower, the MMs twice pushed the price up over 100 pips to do a lot of trading at the attained highs! The first push up was likely a drive to close longs. The second time it was very likely to finish closing any remaining vestiges of longs and focus on getting short. And since that time, over a week ago, the price is not even 150 pips lower! It is logical that they plan for more drop than that!
Please be careful.
-tah
- #62,331
- Nov 19, 2013 5:59pm Nov 19, 2013 5:59pm
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #62,334
- Nov 20, 2013 3:30am Nov 20, 2013 3:30am
- Joined Mar 2013 | Status: In the learning phase.. | 1,377 Posts
{quote} GM guys. Great analysis TAH, however I would like to write here my 2 cents and my vision about the EU. Right now, MMs are working trying to win some liquidity. Why? They know that the price is in a critical point and there is a lot of people with their eyes on it. Of course, MMs target is to try to shake out the price. Take a look at the image I attach. We had a 3 push uptrend, quite clear and after that we started a downtrend. Price behaviour is most of the time symmetrical and fractal so I'm expecting a 3 push downtrend. We had the first...
Very nice and professional analysis
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
- #62,335
- Nov 20, 2013 3:33am Nov 20, 2013 3:33am
- Joined Mar 2013 | Status: In the learning phase.. | 1,377 Posts
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"
- #62,336
- Nov 20, 2013 3:47am Nov 20, 2013 3:47am
{quote} Tymedu, Very nice and professional analysis
GU is in a very nice setup right now as well. Waiting to see how to close this H1 candle but if you see 3 volume in both legs of the "M", it looks very bearish. 3 push down, W, 3 push up, M, ...
Best, Tymedu.
To fail is just an opportunity to learn
- #62,339
- Nov 20, 2013 4:05am Nov 20, 2013 4:05am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: PVSRA with Traderathome | 23,552 Posts
- #62,340
- Nov 20, 2013 4:26am Nov 20, 2013 4:26am
- Joined Mar 2013 | Status: In the learning phase.. | 1,377 Posts
{quote} loeil, I didn't mean that UChf was in your plan. I discussed it with EU because we need to recognize it is the (sometimes exact) opposite of EU. Looking at one can give clues about the other, since they move as mirror opposites.
Maybe I didn't express my words very well, sorry about that Got what you meant.
Whatever is obvious is obviously wrong!"