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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #353,581
  • Nov 19, 2013 8:45am Nov 19, 2013 8:45am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} I still think that the best strategy for Cable is: After synchronising your computer clock at the London Open (remember daylight saving time) Sell at tomorrows high Buy at tomorrows low Target 30 pips for TP and a ten pip SL Then just repeat till you have enough money G/L
  • #353,582
  • Nov 19, 2013 8:46am Nov 19, 2013 8:46am
Closed my GA shorts last night with 5% gain on my accounts
All trades were entered same on both accounts.
Here is a kicker if anyone interested
MBtrading nice big +swap (main account) Oanda negative small swap which should of been positive.Same trades.Looks like Oanda is pocketing our swap money...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud.h4.png Size: 37 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #353,583
  • Nov 19, 2013 9:02am Nov 19, 2013 9:02am
Quoting Davit
Closed my GA shorts last night with 5% gain on my accounts All trades were entered same on both accounts. Here is a kicker if anyone interested MBtrading nice big +swap (main account) Oanda negative small swap which should of been positive.Same trades.Looks like Oanda is pocketing our swap money... {image}
Why do you close your GA shorts?
  • #353,584
  • Nov 19, 2013 9:07am Nov 19, 2013 9:07am
Quoting trexy123
{quote} Why do you close your GA shorts?

Because I expect bounce again to 1.72 so double dipping.I closed at 1.7075 now its at 1.71 25pips lower.I can reenter again now but experience tells me to wait.GU is not falling yet so its kind of connected.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #353,585
  • Nov 19, 2013 9:16am Nov 19, 2013 9:16am
GU H1

Decided break out from flag, retest, continuation to ptencial target to ~6150-6175.
Invalidation price ~6090...

Green pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd h1.png Size: 56 KB
Anything is math!
  • #353,586
  • Nov 19, 2013 9:35am Nov 19, 2013 9:35am
Quoting Johunny Depp
What is the direction of the cable to the upside or downside
Howzit!

Cable is operating within a range, trend is sideways within a declining range.

Events
USD On-going money supply in the US, is keeping the US Dollar at lows and although the dollar has moved to the upside recently the USDx remains in a sustained long term down trend. Initial hopes of the dollar breaking out were tempered as Janet Yellen indicated during her confirmation hearing that the asset purchasing would continue in an accommodative fashion in-line with strategic data Jobs, GDP etc?

Meanwhile in GBP land Mark Carney has indicated to the market that despite his forward guidance earlier, the central bank has noted that the UK economy is indeed showing signs of recovering faster than anticipated. This has lead analysts to pre-empt that the central bank will raise lending rates earlier than anticipated.

The net effect Cable is up and holding above the 1.585 level

Key data out tomorrow will tell the market more, yesterdays candle closed a doji, thus the market is undecided on direction and I don't believe todays candle will shed more light.

Technically

Price is above the golden cross of the 200 & 50 day sma's.
Price can be seen moving between highly reactive support and resistance ranges.
Price is swinging through Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
There are no technical formations of interest or suggestive of direction, however the range strategy at Highs and Lows within the range remains a successful play in this pair.

Break-out of range targets both north and south are based on rectangle breakout strategies which are broadly both continuation and reversal formations and require care if entered and prone to fake-out plays and therefore a low-probability trade

Have a great evening all, expecting action tomorrow.



G/L
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDdaily.png Size: 48 KB
  • #353,587
  • Nov 19, 2013 9:38am Nov 19, 2013 9:38am
Hello All,

So what are you expecting to Bernanke speech (wednesday) and the Bank of England Minutes?
  • #353,588
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:14am Nov 19, 2013 10:14am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Howzit! Cable is operating within a range,...
Why do you think that USDollar will continue it's down trend?
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #353,589
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:23am Nov 19, 2013 10:23am
Quoting mima
{quote} Why do you think that USDollar will continue it's down trend?

He said
"within a declining range" meaning price movement is constricting.When this happens sudden break releases more energy.Longer a pair stays within tight range stronger the breakout.Breakout could be south or north.
Easier to see this effect with bollinger bands
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.h1.png Size: 36 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #353,590
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:25am Nov 19, 2013 10:25am
I for one hope its south!

Quoting Davit
{quote} He said "within a declining range" meaning price movement is constricting.When this happens sudden break releases more energy.Longer a pair stays within tight range stronger the breakout.Breakout could be south or north.
  • #353,591
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:38am Nov 19, 2013 10:38am
Quoting InNeedOfHelp
I for one hope its south! {quote}

Lot of us Bears here.I can't wait to get out GU trades.This pair has been frustrating to me.BOE did hire one talented salesman Carney.The guy can put a spin on anything to make it look incredible.Unemployment drops from 7.7 to 7.6 and this wacko goes all blisters screaming economy improvements on every opportunity.
I wished we had 10% of what Carney has at the Feds.Fed guys are lifeless bunch of morons.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #353,592
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:46am Nov 19, 2013 10:46am
Yes, I live in the UK and the talk on the street isn't quite so optimistic. The spin he put's on everything is unbelievable. Housing Bubble, high unemployment (crazy high amongst youth), vast majority with little or no wage increase in 5 years, millions on zero hour or part time contracts, the average personal debt level still at 140% (one of highest rates in the world - but according to Carney it's all one big party.

Quoting Davit
{quote} Lot of us Bears here.I can't wait to get out GU trades.This pair has been frustrating to me.BOE did hire one talented salesman Carney.The guy can put a spin on anything to make it look incredible.Unemployment drops from 7.7 to 7.6 and this wacko goes all blisters screaming economy improvements on every opportunity. I wished we had 10% of what Carney has at the Feds.Fed guys are lifeless bunch of morons.
  • #353,593
  • Edited 11:05am Nov 19, 2013 10:46am | Edited 11:05am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Lot of us Bears here.I can't wait to get out GU trades.This pair has been frustrating to me.BOE did hire one talented salesman Carney.The guy can put a spin on anything to make it look incredible.Unemployment drops from 7.7 to 7.6 and this wacko goes all blisters screaming economy improvements on every opportunity. I wished we had 10% of what Carney has at the Feds.Fed guys are lifeless bunch of morons.
the minute i longed the mofo got hired

edit:- unfortunately i longed USD
  • #353,594
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:48am Nov 19, 2013 10:48am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Lot of us Bears here.I can't wait to get out GU trades.This pair has been frustrating to me.BOE did hire one talented salesman Carney.The guy can put a spin on anything to make it look incredible.Unemployment drops from 7.7 to 7.6 and this wacko goes all blisters screaming economy improvements on every opportunity. I wished we had 10% of what Carney has at the Feds.Fed guys are lifeless bunch of morons.

Tell us how you really feel , davit ..lol
  • #353,595
  • Nov 19, 2013 10:48am Nov 19, 2013 10:48am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Lot of us Bears here.I can't wait to get out GU trades.This pair has been frustrating to me.BOE did hire one talented salesman Carney.The guy can put a spin on anything to make it look incredible.Unemployment drops from 7.7 to 7.6 and this wacko goes all blisters screaming economy improvements on every opportunity. I wished we had 10% of what Carney has at the Feds.Fed guys are lifeless bunch of morons.

lol agreed )
Loosening is not an option
  • #353,596
  • Nov 19, 2013 11:18am Nov 19, 2013 11:18am
GU H1

breakeven 6102, strong daily bullish candle at the moment, lets wait what price H4 close...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd h1.png Size: 182 KB
Anything is math!
  • #353,597
  • Nov 19, 2013 12:44pm Nov 19, 2013 12:44pm
Quoting mima
{quote} Why do you think that USDollar will continue it's down trend?
http://www.investopedia.com/universi...dowtheory6.asp

Dow Theory: Trend Remains In Effect Until Clear Reversal Occurs

The reason for identifying a trend is to determine the overall direction of the market so that trades can be made with the trends and not against them. As was illustrated in the third tenet, trends move from uptrend to downtrend, which makes it important to identify transitions between these two trend directions. (For related reading, see Track Stock Prices With Trendlines.)
In Dow theory, the sixth and final tenet states that a trend remains in effect until the weight of evidence suggests that it has been reversed.

Traders wait for a clear picture of a trend reversal because the goal is not to confuse a true reversal in the primary trend with a secondary trend or brief correction. Remember that a secondary trend is a move in the opposite direction of the primary trend that will not continue. For example, imagine that the primary trend is up, but the indexes are currently selling off. If an investor were to take a short position, concluding that the sell-off is the start of a new primary downward trend, they could get burned when the primary trend continues.

Unless you can safely conclude, based on the weight of evidence, that the trend has changed, you will be trading against the trend. As a general rule, this is not a wise idea, as many have been hurt by trading against the market.

Reversal by todays definition is a reversal of more than 20% to the opposite direction of the trend. DXY is not there yet.

G/L
  • #353,598
  • Nov 19, 2013 1:43pm Nov 19, 2013 1:43pm
Closed all my short positions over the last two days. Painful but had to be done. Then went back in for some revenge trades and lost even more!!! Market is showing no signs of direction for me so best to cut loses and out (although still feel bearish) Moves like this against all your logic and what you perceive the chart are saying really piss you off.

All you guys still holding onto your shorts, i'm sure it will turn tomorrow!!

Anyway theres no line up at the gate of patience so I'm heading over to speak with the smart ones that have stayed out of the market the last few days. Be back in when we see some breakout tomorrow in whichever market direction.
  • #353,599
  • Nov 19, 2013 1:44pm Nov 19, 2013 1:44pm
Anyone else think this is going to trade sideways for four hours and then move (I'm thinking up) after Bernake speaks?
  • #353,600
  • Nov 19, 2013 3:25pm Nov 19, 2013 3:25pm
Quoting squawk
Closed all my short positions over the last two days. Painful but had to be done. Then went back in for some revenge trades and lost even more!!! Market is showing no signs of direction for me so best to cut loses and out (although still feel bearish) Moves like this against all your logic and what you perceive the chart are saying really piss you off. All you guys still holding onto your shorts, i'm sure it will turn tomorrow!! Anyway theres no line up at the gate of patience so I'm heading over to speak with the smart ones that have stayed out...
i never seen it move so slow..but if u ask me..the market is looking for a dollar bull but news isnt showing a cause..which is the problem
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