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EUR/CHF

  • #11,361
  • Edited 3:46pm Nov 18, 2013 3:29pm | Edited 3:46pm
its
Quoting brinks
{quote} Hi pip thought I would come and keep you company here as it seems your on your own Yes eur/chf has been impressive since the rate cut when it didn't drop at all my opinion is its not worth trading at these levels as it is moving in any direction
Hi Brinks, once earlier this year I also had to ask if I should switch off the lights here as the last man standing. Thanks for the company! Regarding the current situation its really deflating albeit this is always like that with this pair before big moves. If you check the weekly before the 2 major pops this year it was always in a 50 pip range for 3-4 weeks so lets see. Also on the longer run I still think there are good RR possibilities with EC. Yet before I got bored stiff I've made again some fruitful visits to UJ with a couple of hundreds of pips as a result (put some trades on the UJ forum - after that it really mindblowing to watch the 20 pip crawling per day). Im still keeping some longs from 1,228-9 area targeting 1,236 TL and also some for longer run swingtrade from lower. As for todays PA have a look at that nice pinbar on H4 with some inverted HS forming.
  • #11,362
  • Nov 19, 2013 12:46am Nov 19, 2013 12:46am
Quoting pipxster
its {quote} Hi Brinks, once earlier this year I also had to ask if I should switch off the lights here as the last man standing. Thanks for the company! Regarding the current situation its really deflating albeit this is always like that with this pair before big moves. If you check the weekly before the 2 major pops this year it was always in a 50 pip range for 3-4 weeks so lets see. Also on the longer run I still think there are good RR possibilities with EC. Yet before I got bored stiff I've made again some fruitful visits to UJ with a couple...
Yep I have seen you on the UJ thread I also made a bit on the last run up and have just taken a small long again

as I have said I'm happy to hold these small longs on eur/chf but have lost any hope of a breakout upwards
  • #11,363
  • Nov 20, 2013 2:26am Nov 20, 2013 2:26am
Quoting brinks
{quote} Yep I have seen you on the UJ thread I also made a bit on the last run up and have just taken a small long again as I have said I'm happy to hold these small longs on eur/chf but have lost any hope of a breakout upwards

Anyone feel like eur/chf might head lower? into the end of the year?
  • #11,364
  • Nov 20, 2013 3:00am Nov 20, 2013 3:00am
Quoting brinks
{quote} Anyone feel like eur/chf might head lower? into the end of the year?

Hi Brinks well this is possible with some news from the market QE or not QE etc. but CH inflation (deflation) figures are constantly lower than in EU for example (that would require more accomodative monetary policy)
also bond yields are lower as Simon pointed couple of posts ago. given that environment the fundamentals currently point up in med-long run. therefore if we go 1,22 then
its even better RR to target 1,27-1,28 for example in the med-long term. I think in this situation its also true that rates - as Andre Kostolanyi said - are like the dog that can run around the master up and down when walking but generally it will follow the master.

Still its very painful to see the this crawling in the last weeks - its like watching the paint drying on the wall - as for me the current range is too tight to be tradeable.
  • #11,365
  • Nov 20, 2013 3:08am Nov 20, 2013 3:08am
Quoting pipxster
{quote} Hi Brinks well this is possible with some news from the market QE or not QE etc. but CH inflation (deflation) figures are constantly lower than in EU for example (that would require more accomodative monetary policy) also bond yields are lower as Simon pointed couple of posts ago. given that environment the fundamentals currently point up in med-long run. therefore if we go 1,22 then its even better RR to target 1,27-1,28 for example in the med-long term. I think in this situation its also true that rates - as Andre Kostolanyi said - are...

Thanks pip i find it very strange that it hasnt moved at all in any direction,even with the ECB cutting rates and possibe negative rates and LTRO'S
  • #11,366
  • Nov 20, 2013 3:57am Nov 20, 2013 3:57am
Quoting brinks
{quote} Anyone feel like eur/chf might head lower? into the end of the year?
There are very strong supoorts and resistances at these levels. And you are may be right: the market seems tired to break any of these levels for this year.

Year End is usually profit taking for the big guys: this could have donwside effect (likvidating long positions) and upside effect (likvidating short positions)

If the new year find this pair at good RR opportunity (1,22-1,23) it could indicate a rally in januar.
  • #11,367
  • Nov 20, 2013 4:54am Nov 20, 2013 4:54am
Quoting Simon73
{quote} There are very strong supoorts and resistances at these levels. And you are may be right: the market seems tired to break any of these levels for this year. Year End is usually profit taking for the big guys: this could have donwside effect (likvidating long positions) and upside effect (likvidating short positions) If the new year find this pair at good RR opportunity (1,22-1,23) it could indicate a rally in januar.
thanks simon yes I was thinking more big boys closing for year end may make this head lower
  • #11,368
  • Nov 20, 2013 5:06am Nov 20, 2013 5:06am
Quoting brinks
{quote} thanks simon yes I was thinking more big boys closing for year end may make this head lower
Yes it is true, but if we go lower more big boys will buying

We have 3 known big risk events till Year End: dec NFP, dec SNB meeting and dec FMOC meeting. All 3 could effect this pair.
  • #11,369
  • Nov 20, 2013 10:20am Nov 20, 2013 10:20am
some news on ECB negative rates and SNB realtions from MNI:

BULLET: ECB: Traders are a bit surprised at the reaction.....
20-Nov-2013

ECB: Traders are a bit surprised at the reaction to headlines that the ECB might
consider a -0.1% deposit rate if more easing is needed. Nearly every analyst has
mentioned that negative deposit rates are possible - so this is not a new idea.
Steve Englander of CitiFX laid out 4 options for the ECB going forward 1)
Another LTRO (would "help anchor rate expectations, alleviate any liquidity
pressures in the Eurozone banking sector ahead of AQR and stress tests and avoid
renewed funding tensions in the periphery." 2) QE (he sees "indications that the
Governing council is looking into more aggressive policy options like QE and
negative deposit rates" 3) a refi or deposit rate cut "If the experience of the
FOMC or the SNB is anything to go by, the Governing council may opt to introduce
a band for the refi rate between zero and 25bp - Negative deposit rates seem
less likely to us for the time being." The ECB may opt to wait for the AQR
outcome /eurozone bank stress tests "before considering the measure," Englander
says. 4) FX market intervention (CitiFX suspects that it would take excessive
EUR appreciation, in combination with severe escalation in market volatility,
for FX interventions to be considered").
  • #11,370
  • Nov 21, 2013 2:15am Nov 21, 2013 2:15am
Quoting pipxster
some news on ECB negative rates and SNB realtions from MNI: BULLET: ECB: Traders are a bit surprised at the reaction..... 20-Nov-2013 ECB: Traders are a bit surprised at the reaction to headlines that the ECB might consider a -0.1% deposit rate if more easing is needed. Nearly every analyst has mentioned that negative deposit rates are possible - so this is not a new idea. Steve Englander of CitiFX laid out 4 options for the ECB going forward 1) Another LTRO (would "help anchor rate expectations, alleviate any liquidity pressures in the Eurozone...

Looks like eur/chf is no longer following usd/jpy or usd/chf
  • #11,371
  • Nov 21, 2013 2:39am Nov 21, 2013 2:39am
some magic power holds it above 1.23---1.2280
  • #11,372
  • Nov 21, 2013 2:57am Nov 21, 2013 2:57am
We have a clear trendline which is work as a cap for the upside move. Now it is about 1,2353. In the downside there are two trendlines and we have the 1,2280 strong level. The two trendlines now:1,2303 and 1,2270. And we have the old 200 DMA which is 1,2312, and it will probably rise in the next days to 1,2320.


So this ranges/triangles getting smaller and smaller. The first trianlge will end on 18 of Dec, the second on 1 of Jan, and the 3rd is on 31 of Jan. The daily ATR is only 27 pip, this is almost one year low.

So technically all thing suggest this pair should break up or down within days or a few weeks. The previous trend was up on D1 and on weekly/monthly chart we have a bullish reversal patterns, so the brake up move have a larger possibility, as like we saw it, in the USDJPY in the past days.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchfdailysupres.png Size: 105 KB
  • #11,373
  • Nov 21, 2013 3:39am Nov 21, 2013 3:39am
Quoting Simon73
We have a clear trendline which is work as a cap for the upside move. Now it is about 1,2353. In the downside there are two trendlines and we have the 1,2280 strong level. The two trendlines now:1,2303 and 1,2270. And we have the old 200 DMA which is 1,2312, and it will probably rise in the next days to 1,2320. So this ranges/triangles getting smaller and smaller. The first trianlge will end on 18 of Dec, the second on 1 of Jan, and the 3rd is on 31 of Jan. The daily ATR is only 27 pip, this is almost one year low. So technically all thing suggest...
another perfect one thanks, carrying any longs?
  • #11,374
  • Nov 21, 2013 8:02am Nov 21, 2013 8:02am
ECB puts negative deposit rates to bed http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/1...november-2013/

Time to enter long!
  • #11,375
  • Nov 21, 2013 1:38pm Nov 21, 2013 1:38pm
zuerbruegg:

GENEVA, Switzerland--The value of the Swiss franc remains high, and the Swiss National Bank's minimum exchange rate for the euro/franc remains a necessary instrument for the foreseeable future, central bank board member Fritz Zurbruegg said Thursday.
"With SNB interest rates at zero, the minimum exchange rate prevents an undesired tightening of monetary conditions in the event the upward pressure on the franc should intensify again," Mr. Zurbruegg said in a speech prepared for delivery at a conference in Geneva.
The SNB imposed the CHF1.20-a-euro floor in September 2011 to prevent the Swiss economy tipping into recession and head off the danger of deflation. The currency had soared to near parity with the euro, driven by investor demand for a safe haven from the euro region's debt crisis.
The Zurich-based central bank has since stressed repeatedly its determination to defend the euro/franc floor with all means at its disposal.
"We remain prepared to enforce the minimum exchange rate by buying foreign currency in unlimited quantities if necessary, and to take further measures as required," Mr. Zurbruegg said.
The SNB also cut interest rates to near zero a month before introducing its minimum exchange rate, and has stressed this policy is likely to remain in place for the foreseeable future.
Turning to the outlook for the global economy, Mr. Zurbruegg said there is little to suggest the timetable for a return to normal for monetary policy has moved closer.
Still, there were surprisingly favorable economic data in Europe this summer, and in the second quarter of 2013 the euro zone reported growth for the first time in six quarters, he said.
Turning to the dangers posed by the boom in the Swiss property market--driven by ultra-low interest rates--Mr. Zurbruegg warned of the dangers of imbalances building up.

"Since low interest rates can be expected to persist in Switzerland for some time yet, we are keeping a very close watch on developments in the mortgage and real estate markets," he said.
  • #11,376
  • Nov 22, 2013 1:15am Nov 22, 2013 1:15am
Same old same old from the SNB then

This pair won't be going up anytime soon,why would it?

The ECB are cutting rates talking negative,LTRO's and QE

even with bond differentials that Simon spoke of it won't go up,when the better GDP news came out from the euro it didn't go up.
  • #11,377
  • Nov 22, 2013 11:14am Nov 22, 2013 11:14am
Quoting brinks
Same old same old from the SNB then This pair won't be going up anytime soon,why would it? The ECB are cutting rates talking negative,LTRO's and QE even with bond differentials that Simon spoke of it won't go up,when the better GDP news came out from the euro it didn't go up.
Best way to see this pair is by drawing a trend line in the RSI starting on Jan 18th 2013, it is the only indicator that has remeined consistent... in a down trend, as long as that trend is not broken we can expect allmost random price action in this pair within ranges and techs that fail again and again.
  • #11,378
  • Nov 25, 2013 3:10am Nov 25, 2013 3:10am
Anyone going long on this pair given the positive news associated with the Iranian deal?
  • #11,379
  • Nov 25, 2013 6:22am Nov 25, 2013 6:22am
Descending TL on H4 from 11.15 on approach - make or break?
  • #11,380
  • Edited 9:54am Nov 25, 2013 9:31am | Edited 9:54am
5:30pm
CHF

SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks




The World's Central Banks getting more and more agressive in the recent months (Currency war):

FED: QE3 still working, Taper has delayed, and extrem low rate period extended. There are a lot of verbal intervention to weaken USD
ECB: Rate cut, and lot of verbal activity: QE, LTRO, negativ rates, forward guiadience etc.
BOJ: QEx, and a lot verbal actions
RBA, RBNZ rate cuts, and verball interventions
BOE: QE, low rate
BOC: possibly rate cut, verbal things

The only Central bank which is inactive: is SNB. They do not buy anything till 2012 sept. And the verbal communications is very poor. The result: CHF is very stong against YEN, USD, AUD, NZD, EUR, CAD and GBP.

If SNB will do nothing, all other currency will be weakening, and EUR/CHF will slowly go down1,2250, 1,22, 1,218 ...

I undestand that SNB has limited tools: Peg lifting is not so simple because of exit strategy. Negativ rates could use only for limited period. Capital controll is not so effectiv, beceause there is no inflows to CHF . The only working method could be, if SNB buying EU and USA bonds in large quantity. This could lend CHF pairs.

But i do not understand why SNB verbal communications not much more agressive? A lot of CB speaks only whitout doing, and it is working for a while.

Let see what will Jordan tell... Any idea?
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