W/e review
A hammer candle close on the weekly with bullish body. No fractal swing created by this candle, - the last on this t/f being the LH at 6256. The general opa uptrend on this t/f is still present and this week's weekly candle confirms this....if the 5853 weekly lo does become a fractal swing on this t/f it will be at a L in the said general opa uptrend. Price closes above the 100 sma (yellow) and the 200 sma (red) on this t/f and the former may be converging on the later from just below it. This week's pip range was 281, bigger than last week's 214 and 114% of the current 20 week atr of 260.
A bullish bodied daily candle today (Friday.) No fractal swing created by it's close, - the last on this t/f being the 2nd LL at the weeks 5853 lo recorded on Tuesday - a false downside break of the previous 6259-5903 daily range. This t/f remains in an opa range with 3 x consecutive bullish bodied candles off that 5853 weekly lo now, the most significant being wednesday's bullish thrust master engulfing x 2 candle. Price closes above both the and 100 and 200 sma's on this t/f and the former is crossed above the later and pointing up. Friday's s pip range was 87 which is 84% of the current 20 day atr of 103.
4hr closes in a classic opa uptrend and price has made a break and close above the recent double top zone extending to 6117 on that t/f. Prtice closes above both the 100 and 200sma on this t/f, the former being below the latter. 1hr closes in a general opa uptrend, and the 100 and 200sma's are as the 4hr except both are pointing up.
Summary
So per last week's w/e review, the greater probability played out of a downside break of last week's 5903 lo but it was early in the week and short lived as the un-employments numbers and Carney on wednesday followed by disappointing U.s data today pretty much killed off any immediate $ strength in this pairing from Wednesday's London morning onwards....see-ing price break and a daily close above the steepest daily descending trend line.
Taking into consideration the technical conditions on the t/f's mentioned above the greater probability looks like more upside from week's close into next week and if not that then ranging within the daily range of 6259-5853 looks more probable than a completely bearish outlook next week. (Try telling that to the 79% of lots in this site's trade explorer who end the week short !) Note though on the weekly the hi of the evening star ŕt the recent 6256 hi and indeed subsequent bearish candle are still intact. If this week's hi can be taken out the next most visible potential resistance zone is the previous 4hr/daily/minor weekly swing hi zone leading up to said 6256-59.
Fundamentals.
This week was all about the better than expected Uk un-emp numbers and market reaction to Carney's comments and adjustment of the forward guidance parametres - both on Wednesday. Yellen's confirmation hearings/process in U.s didn't/hasn't yet (?) really told us anyrhing new and there was some disappointing data in U.s today. Next week is quiet re data releases / known event risks till Wednesday when UK Boe's MPC rate and Qe decision is published which is a pretty much a foregone conclusion anyway? U.s Cpi data and Retail sales, then Fomc last meeting minutes later that day could all move price. Uk borrowing figures and U.s PPi on Thursday are also capable of causing some movement but the mood music remains an improving Uk position, worries in the U.s re the recovery stalling, and deflationary pressures in Europe.
Catch you at next week end ?
G/L
A hammer candle close on the weekly with bullish body. No fractal swing created by this candle, - the last on this t/f being the LH at 6256. The general opa uptrend on this t/f is still present and this week's weekly candle confirms this....if the 5853 weekly lo does become a fractal swing on this t/f it will be at a L in the said general opa uptrend. Price closes above the 100 sma (yellow) and the 200 sma (red) on this t/f and the former may be converging on the later from just below it. This week's pip range was 281, bigger than last week's 214 and 114% of the current 20 week atr of 260.
A bullish bodied daily candle today (Friday.) No fractal swing created by it's close, - the last on this t/f being the 2nd LL at the weeks 5853 lo recorded on Tuesday - a false downside break of the previous 6259-5903 daily range. This t/f remains in an opa range with 3 x consecutive bullish bodied candles off that 5853 weekly lo now, the most significant being wednesday's bullish thrust master engulfing x 2 candle. Price closes above both the and 100 and 200 sma's on this t/f and the former is crossed above the later and pointing up. Friday's s pip range was 87 which is 84% of the current 20 day atr of 103.
4hr closes in a classic opa uptrend and price has made a break and close above the recent double top zone extending to 6117 on that t/f. Prtice closes above both the 100 and 200sma on this t/f, the former being below the latter. 1hr closes in a general opa uptrend, and the 100 and 200sma's are as the 4hr except both are pointing up.
Summary
So per last week's w/e review, the greater probability played out of a downside break of last week's 5903 lo but it was early in the week and short lived as the un-employments numbers and Carney on wednesday followed by disappointing U.s data today pretty much killed off any immediate $ strength in this pairing from Wednesday's London morning onwards....see-ing price break and a daily close above the steepest daily descending trend line.
Taking into consideration the technical conditions on the t/f's mentioned above the greater probability looks like more upside from week's close into next week and if not that then ranging within the daily range of 6259-5853 looks more probable than a completely bearish outlook next week. (Try telling that to the 79% of lots in this site's trade explorer who end the week short !) Note though on the weekly the hi of the evening star ŕt the recent 6256 hi and indeed subsequent bearish candle are still intact. If this week's hi can be taken out the next most visible potential resistance zone is the previous 4hr/daily/minor weekly swing hi zone leading up to said 6256-59.
Fundamentals.
This week was all about the better than expected Uk un-emp numbers and market reaction to Carney's comments and adjustment of the forward guidance parametres - both on Wednesday. Yellen's confirmation hearings/process in U.s didn't/hasn't yet (?) really told us anyrhing new and there was some disappointing data in U.s today. Next week is quiet re data releases / known event risks till Wednesday when UK Boe's MPC rate and Qe decision is published which is a pretty much a foregone conclusion anyway? U.s Cpi data and Retail sales, then Fomc last meeting minutes later that day could all move price. Uk borrowing figures and U.s PPi on Thursday are also capable of causing some movement but the mood music remains an improving Uk position, worries in the U.s re the recovery stalling, and deflationary pressures in Europe.
Catch you at next week end ?
G/L
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
ex member
,what were looking for is break
