Sonic R. System

which candle pattern is the most powerful... 4hr chat or day chart? any idea ?

There is nothing powerful without PVSRA - price action, volume, support&resistance.

Like you see, your H4 shows down, D1 shows up, so you don't know which one is right. I recommend to use PVSRA and you don't have to guess anymore

In my opinion it doesn't matter which pair you trade. Analysis is analysis and if it's made correctly it works on every pair. You can't count on USD strength or weakness, it's too manipulated market today. And as you see last week or even last two weeks there are lot of volatility moves, lot of manipulations, pairs moved like smart money wants, not like we want or USD dollar wants. So my suggestion is learning PVSRA and you are able to trade whatever pair you like.

EU Long Trade Update: Entered long Scout #2 after pull back downwards. Only looking for what the rest of the day brings on this one, but might change my mind if something strange happens in off hours that looks good for the trade.

Hi Sonic,

Do you mean Dragon on M15 time frame ?

Thanks Ron

I think the higher TF always has more weight than less. So D1 is more powerful than H4.

Which is More Divining?

We have to be careful when we say patterns on larger TFs are more powerful than on smaller TFs. I believe that to be true, but then the mind might make an assumption that larger TFs are more powerful than smaller ones, which is not necessarily so. Patterns on them, yes, but otherwise maybe not.

You see, excepting patterns, the larger TFs can still give reasonable indications of which direction has had the better market momentum, up to to the current point in time, but......

.....but, the last candle on the larger TF can hide the evil of a change that is in process which is only visible on the lower TFs.

So, we must ever be alert to distinguish when we are talking about the value of patterns on higher TFs, or just the value of higher TFs in general.

UJ:

Too bad the MMs didn't give us this formation a couple of days ago! Now we have the Friday after hours push up on light volume; the MMs scouring for shorts and keeping the price up for the next week open. Could this suddenly drop, today? Would be nice, huh?

closed manually for +20pips, don´t want to hold position over weekend

Closed trades:
EU long 7 x 43 = + 301 pips
GU long 3 x 96 = + 288 pips
AU long 4 x 55 = + 220 pips
UCa short 7 x 47 = + 329 pips
UCh short 2 x 17 = + 34 pips
EG long - 10 pips

Opened trades:
UJ short 3 x 12 = - 36 pips
EJ short 2 x 54 = - 108 pips

Good weekend

Sonic! It has to be said that your template is AWESOME. I'm backtesting some "naked trader" systems and even without trading Sonic Classic , color candles with high volume are such helpful in taking the right setup ! Thank you for that
BTW. TAH and Loeil helped me understand PVSRA within 1 week

tah,
firstly though not on the actual topic I am quoting but your opening line is so much to my issue as in which is more driving as in fear of losing, contradicting thoughts or belief in what I saw and don't take a second valuation and to stick with the original thought analysis why I got in the trade the first time.
To this end...I would be so grateful if you can take a look at attached charts I was sure mms pushing price up to add shorts GJ and on the audnzd down to add longs but having been in for a while and just kept going and going in the original direction I ended up coming out at a considerable loss - THIS COULD BE MY money management side and psychology and fear and when took another look to divergence was also lead to think maybe hidden so came out but I am still so sure I was right and kicking my self this morning and wishing i had stayed in though I could be totally wrong in which case I have been stupid and not grasped the system as yet - maybe before one starts to add scouts I should wait for the dragon to initially show the way, but your thoughts on both charts will be so beneficial as thought this system would be the one for me in the way and time I trade but if totally wrong I need to open up another dummy account re-read posts and files and within the files see where I went wrong or go back to my day job...lol

I also understand that you probably get this a lot so fully understand if your reply is to re-read everything take a breath and start again

I thankyou in advance and anticipation for your comments

fd

forexdancer,

Let me comment on both by commenting on AUDNZD, since I have not looked at that one in a long time. Personally, I don't like to trade higher spread pairs like this one. It is just my way of not giving business to brokers in areas that I feel they are abusive. Since I have not looked at this one recently, I should have no bias. It is all to easy to look at charts after the fact and say this or that is obvious. I will try to get to the heart of the problem as I see it. Ok, here we go.....

First off, I and other Sonicers have been in the same situation you described. It happened to us months ago as the PVSRA in work project was getting started and in full swing. We were all adding trades left and right based on volumes at highs or at lows, deeming that bears or bulls were a large and surely the price would soon respond accordingly. It didn't. I and others here ended up adding and adding and adding, and watching the prices continue in the wrong direction! Oh, yes, there were initially great successes. But there came that time when the market went on prolonged drives and many of us kept trading in the direction of the bull/bear signals we were getting, only to see the price continue to not cooperate. That is when the lights came on for many of us, and we realized there was more to the market price manipulation than we were accounting for.

In a nut shell, while prices are trending, say down as in the case of AN here, we can see that there are spots of high volumes at lows where PVSRA indicates bulls at work. But the price continues on down! This happens because while high volumes at lows indicates buying, it can be buying to close shorts and not buying to open longs. The MMs run the price down, buy to close shorts (profit taking) and then at some time following there will be a sort of pull back upwards (which we think is the bulls getting into full swing, but isn't) and the bears re-short at the pull backs and down it goes again, more. This was not a revelation to us, just a realization that we had been discounting the magnitude of the effect on price of this reality. PVSRA was calling the signals correctly. We were all responding to them like lemmings being led off the cliff. Now we know better.

PVSRA bull signals while price is dropping does not necessarily mean the down trend is at the point of reversing. PVSRA bear signals while price is rising does not mean the up trend is at the point of reversing. Theses signals can mean that, but they can also mean there is just profit taking at the top/bottom respectively of a cycle and that the MMs will simply reload on a pullback and the trend will continue. So, how do we use the PVSRA signals?

As I stated in a post this past week, PVSRA signals fall into the same category as "the Secret to Sonic R." and Master Sonicdeejay's recently demonstrated practice of looking at the WEEK chart recent candles. These are methods of looking for reasons why there is, or soon should be, a Sonic R. System setup on M15, and why we can then trade that setup with more confidence. The Secret to Sonic R. involves looking on the DAY or H4 chart for pin bars, hammers and engulfing candles which can denote extra emphasis behind price movement is underway, or soon likely to be, and that a corresponding Sonic R. setup might occur, or be occurring, and be a good one to trade. Recently, Master Sonicdeejay has personally begun the practice of viewing the WEEK chart recent candles for a sign of trend continuation, being more confident in trading the trend unless the WEEK chart shows inconclusive in that regard. And now we know that while PVSRA signals during a trend that are opposite the trend are valid, we need to be looking for where those signals are consistent with the trend. The one important PVSRA signal opposite the trend is/are the big signal(s) that might occur as the trend changes, but we need other indications of a trend change to support this. That is where "the Secret to Sonic R." and checking the WEEK chart candles, and PVSRA all come into play to be used for the same purpose. In this case, PVSRA signals will not change, but they will become consistent with the changed trend. If the trend changes from down to up, there might be very strong buying PVSRA bull signals around the bottom, and as the trend starts up the bull PVSRA indications continue, but now they are in agreement with the trend, not opposite it as they were when the trend was continuing down and the PVSRA bull signals were due to buying to close shorts.

You see, bulls and bears are both active during a trend. They start predominately as one when the trend is young, and switch predominately to the other when the trend ages. And they remain "the other" when the trend changes back again! That is the key, when the trend changes to become consistent with the ongoing same side PVSRA signals! Yes, as a trend is starting, the PVSRA signals should be predominately consistent with the trend. When the trend is aging, the PVSRA signals will be predominately opposite the trend. When the trend is new, the MMs get behind it to create momentum, hence the PVSRA signals will be predominately consistent with the trend. Then, as the trend ages, there will be a shifting of the MMs to where they start focusing of taking profits, hence the PVSRA signals become predominately opposite the trend. But, when the trend changes again, those same side PVSRA signals will continue and now be consistent with the new trend! Let's get back to AUDNZD now. What you want is buying at lows due to opening longs, not buying at lows due to closing shorts. A valid PVSRA bull indication is for when the MMs are buying at lows to open longs, and the trend should be up as confirmation of this!

Look at the WEEK chart and you will see three bear bars taking the price towards previous lows. That was one signal that you should not have been trading long. Look at the DAY chart, "the Secret to Sonic R." showed no reason to suspect there might be a reversal afoot to an up trend. That was a second signal you should not be trading long. Finally, your experience with PVSRA bull signals (notable volumes at lows), yet with the down trend continuing, should have been a signal to you that if the MMs are predominately focused on buying in a down trend, then yes, maybe the trend is due to change since the MMs seem to be focused on taking profits on shorts at the bottoms more than continuing to build large short positions at tops, which would have been the case when the down trend was young. That was a third signal you should not have been trading long, because while the MMs are buying to take profits on shorts at lows, they were not yet bulls buying to open longs at lows and driving the price into an up trend. And you know this because the trend is not up yet! So, let's put this all together now.

Before taking on a trade do these things:
1. Check the WEEK chart to see if the recent candles support trend continuation, or not. This can give you your first sense of direction. If there is no clear sense of direction to be had, well that in itself is important, is it not?
2. Check the DAY/H4 chart for any "Secret to Sonic R." indications. I suggest you read this document linked in post #1 of this thread.
3. Check to see if PVSRA indications are predominately consistent with the trend, or not. To take on a trade in an up trend, confirming PVSRA indications should be bullish, but bullish because the MMs are buying to open longs and driving the price higher. To take on a trade in a down trend, confirming PVSRA indications should be bearish, but bearish because the MMs are selling to open shorts and driving the price lower.
4. Wait for a Classic Sonic R. Setup in the direction all these things point to.

There are times when such notable price spiking and volume spiking can denote an opportunity to trade a Scout in the opposite direction. This has always been a more risky trade than the Classic, but such situations do occur and can occur during periods of trend changing. Aside from this, the best usage of the Scout trade in my opinion is to support a truly good (fully qualified) Classic trade already running, when the MMs whip prices against the trade, which they often do for a good trade in order to load up for the same trade direction that you have taken.

Final Comments
The "reason for being" of the Sonic R. System is to trade conservatively and with least risk. There is no intention here to promote picking bottoms or tops. As Sonicers, we look for a well qualified, well constructed, well timed Classic Sonic R. System setup to carve out a least risk trade during a trend. As you might imagine, this excludes many of the trade "opportunities" other traders and other systems go for. I can tell you this after being around a long time. Far more often than not, what looks like a good bottom/top, or a good "jump" on an "upcoming" Classic setup will turn out to be the price level for entry into a proper Classic setup later! And, by waiting for the Classic setup you avoid tying up money (or losing it). Stick with well qualified, well constructed, well timed Classic Sonic R. System setups. Trade less, make more when you do.

Hope this helps,
-tah

Fex,

awesome results! You are trading like a pro Really well done! Keep going

PVSRA Results for 1st Thirty Three Weeks
The following are the results of my trading the Sonic R. System using PVSRA to determine if it is a bull or bear market, and then trading the price action I see.

Week ending 04/05
1289 pips gained, 7 trades totaling 19 parts (18 parts winners), averaging 67+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 04/12
1891 pips gained, 9 trades totaling 28 parts (all parts winners), averaging 67+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 04/19
2160 pips gained, 9 trades totaling 31 parts (29 parts winners), averaging 69+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 04/26
2640 pips gained, 6 trades totaling 34 parts (all parts winners), averaging 77+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 05/03
2530 pips gained, 6 trades totaling 24 parts (23 parts winners), averaging 105+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 05/10
3050 pips gained, 7 trades totaling 33 parts (all parts winners), averaging 92+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 05/17
1590 pips gained, 7 trades totaling 16 parts (all parts winners), averaging 99+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 05/24
3980 pips gained, 7 trades totaling 40 parts (33 parts winners), averaging 99+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 05/31
4003 pips gained, 5 trades totaling 37 parts (34 parts winners), averaging 108+ pips per each of all parts.

Week ending 06/07
9813 pips gained, 9 trades totaling 61 parts (53 parts winners), averaging 160+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 06/14
3900 pips gained, 2 trades totaling 15 parts (all parts winners), averaging 260+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 06/21
4620 pips gained, 3 trades totaling 33 parts (all parts winners), averaging 140+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 06/28
12,120 pips gained, 8 trades totaling 86 parts (82 parts winners), averaging 140+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 07/05
3,440 pips gained, 2 trades totaling 22 parts (18 parts winners), averaging 156+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 07/12
14,143 pips gained, 11 trades totaling 125 parts (115 parts winners), averaging 113+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 07/19
215 pips gained, 2 trades totaling 7 parts (all parts winners), averaging 30+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 07/26
1,170 pips gained, 2 trades totaling 25 parts (16 parts winners), averaging 46+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 08/02
10,850 pips gained, 8 trades totaling 102 parts (87 parts winners), averaging 106+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 08/09
7,784 pips gained, 4 trades totaling 72 parts (50 parts winners), averaging 108+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 08/16
(-250) pips gained, 1 trades totaling 3 parts (0 parts winners), averaging -83+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 08/23
6,750 pips gained, 3 trades totaling 49 parts (42 parts winners), averaging 137+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 08/30
6,785 pips gained, 8 trades totaling 68 parts (64 parts winners), averaging 99+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 09/06
178 pips gained, 2 trades totaling 6 parts (all parts winners), averaging 29+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 09/13
2,330 pips gained, 3 trades totaling 40 parts (34 parts winners), averaging 58+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 09/20
64,268 pips lost, 8 trades totaling 107 parts (6 parts winners), averaging -600 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 09/27
364 pips gained, 4 trades totaling 16 parts (8 parts winners), averaging 22+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 10/04
6,710 pips lost, 7 trades totaling 27 parts (11 parts winners), averaging -419 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 10/11
586 pips lost, 8 trades affected, 42 parts involved (34 parts gain, 7 parts lose), averaging -14 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 10/18
19,611 pips lost, 6 trades affected, 76 parts involved (14 parts gain, 62 parts lose), averaging -213 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 10/25
14,401 pips lost, 8 trades affected, 77 parts involved (0 parts gain, 77 parts lose), averaging -66 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 11/01
8,320 pips gained, 4 trades affected, 105 parts involved (101 parts gain, 4 parts lose), averaging +79 pips per each of all parts

Week ending 11/08
7,527 pips gained, 3 trades affected, 78 parts involved (78 parts gain, 0 parts lose), averaging 96+ pips per each of all parts

Week ending 11/15
2,504 pips gained, 3 trades affected, 8 parts involved (5 parts gain, 3 parts lose), averaging 313+ pips per each of all parts


All of these trades, all of the trade parts thereof, were posted real-time right here on the Sonic R. System thread, using crystal clear easy to understand charts and explanations regarding PVSRA reasons for entries, whether Classic or Scout trades.

Summary Week Thirty Three
19,120 pips banked.
3,020 pips current draw down (net loss of all open PVSRA trades).
16,100 pips net gain (pips banked plus net loss of all open PVSRA trades).
487 pips weekly average net gain (weekly average net gain if all open PVSRA trades instantly closed).

Additional Remarks
I have one open non-PVSRA trade (first entered many months prior to PVSRA) that is down 27,732 pips (EJ short).

Final Remarks
The market hammered my batch of older PVSRA trades, putting most into a non-profit situation once again. I leave them running, as I have a decent number of trade components which stand to profit over the remainder of this year's experiment.

-tah

EU Outlook

The day six days back was an important day. The price swung down well over 200 pips, and the candle and subsequent candles suggests it was a day of closing shorts for profits and switching to longs. The FR 50-60% area looks reasonable for a profit taking target for these longs, still being less than a 300 pips swing back up. Of course, the greedy price manipulating MMs might figure to make more and take the price even higher. We can never know these things in advance. In any case, maybe for the next week or so, maybe until the end of November, this will continue bullish. This is my outlook on it at this point in time.

UCad Outlook

Last Thursday was the notable day for this pair, which has for many, many days given bear signals but refused to turn down in price. The DAY candle for Thursday clearly suggests the market ran the price up while closing longs and maybe opening shorts at the same time. It was a head fake above an established trend line on the DAY chart, too. The candle for Friday was a push up-end down candle, a bear candle which suggests continued selling (opening more shorts).

The consistency of PVSRA bear indications leading up to Thursday, while the price continued to rise, was a sign the up trend was aging and the MMs had switched from bullish buying at lows (opening longs to give the up trend momentum) to bearish selling at highs (closing longs) as they became more focused on taking profits. The PVSRA bear indications in an uptrend is a sign the trend is aging, but not a sign we should willy-nilly jump in short right away, because we cannot know for how much longer the bear MMs (selling only to take profits on longs) will continue to push up the price.

Thursday the PVSRA bear indication was a huge one, as the MMs pushed the price above the whole number SR on extremely notable volume, and the price has been trending down since. This seems to be where the MMs switched from predominately selling to close longs (focused on profit taking, yet continuing to push the trend further up) to also selling to open shorts (now focused on opening new positions in the opposite direction which could cause the trend to change). This could be the beginning of a trend reversal. More time will tell us. If it is, a FR 50% seems a reasonable target at this time for short trades. This is my outlook on it at this point in time.

I'm little conserned about this ultrahigh volume candle with really long wick at swing high... That was the reason I took my profits already. My opinion is, that there wasn't enough pressure (yet?) to blast through this resistance. There were no reloading/supporting volume on next lows either, so it makes me think that the plan might have changed and MM's took their money out.

So I'm flat on EU until I see next clear signs...

Happy Weekend...





Sonic

anyone know how I can do this?