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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #353,021
  • Nov 13, 2013 6:03am Nov 13, 2013 6:03am
Quoting ravenbg
Here is what I am trading: {image}

I see you've been spying on me.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #353,022
  • Nov 13, 2013 6:05am Nov 13, 2013 6:05am
Quoting Likerty
Pound is bearish until 1.6120's highs holding.Test of 5840's is highly probbale and when it happens and especially if it establishes above 5840 from below after visiting 5750's or any other.. AFter this it will proceed for 6380's test
I think bulls in control now after this quick move
  • #353,023
  • Nov 13, 2013 6:07am Nov 13, 2013 6:07am
Quoting WilliamDa
{quote} I think bulls in control now after this quick move
I think your statement needs a bit of clarification on the context of the word "now".
Does that mean right now only, or from now onwards.
If from now onwards, till when?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #353,024
  • Nov 13, 2013 6:12am Nov 13, 2013 6:12am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} wow to that analysis
Thats very generalized version ofcourse.. Its a bearish retracement in a bull trend, which is just a part of even bigger correction - these situations are always tricky to predict - you can never know for sure how many times bastards will decide to ride the range and how deepl they will target to reload.. So far seems another dive is under way as similar potential hangs in other pairs too, but bullish continuation should start sooner rather than later and 5840's looks legit enought for long entries.
69
  • #353,025
  • Nov 13, 2013 6:13am Nov 13, 2013 6:13am
Quoting Bones
ok seems to have held ,ill wait for h4 close back in gap I take bearish gbp jpy tl held again {image}
u sure u dont want to add more positions?
jeez bro..u are next level
  • #353,026
  • Nov 13, 2013 6:15am Nov 13, 2013 6:15am
Quoting nAVIN2007
it just not in the charts is my thoughts
well, i see a range on the daily. 1.5890 is the base where daily candle has failed to close below. Yes, inside the range there are lower highs but in an order flow perspective it works both ways. Shorts have incentives but someone has to trade the follow through. If there isn't one then all the shorts are exposed to a squeeze...

but, it's hard to know for sure of course, hence i'm flat...if i had a gun in my head i would go long
  • #353,027
  • Nov 13, 2013 6:29am Nov 13, 2013 6:29am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} well, i see a range on the daily. 1.5890 is the base where daily candle has failed to close below. Yes, inside the range there are lower highs but in an order flow perspective it works both ways. Shorts have incentives but someone has to trade the follow through. If there isn't one then all the shorts are exposed to a squeeze... but, it's hard to know for sure of course, hence i'm flat...if i had a gun in my head i would go long

its not easy that is for sure..
  • #353,028
  • Nov 13, 2013 6:31am Nov 13, 2013 6:31am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} well, i see a range on the daily. 1.5890 is the base where daily candle has failed to close below. Yes, inside the range there are lower highs but in an order flow perspective it works both ways. Shorts have incentives but someone has to trade the follow through. If there isn't one then all the shorts are exposed to a squeeze... but, it's hard to know for sure of course, hence i'm flat...if i had a gun in my head i would go long
What do you think will happen when US Dollar retests the broken trend line resistance as support?
Consider that a DecTaper is a higher probability now than it was last month according to general market sentiment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdollarh4.png Size: 73 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #353,029
  • Nov 13, 2013 7:07am Nov 13, 2013 7:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} What do you think will happen when US Dollar retests the broken trend line resistance as support?
dude, you have a weird DX chart. But i see what you mean. Currencies have to be analysed separately, IMO, and we're talking about pound. It can simply outperform others.

Quoting PipTrapper
Consider that a DecTaper is a higher probability now than it was last month according to general market sentiment. {image}

I AM considering it that's what's making the call difficult. I do think the taper is less than 50% likely in Dec but it's enough for markets to shift to 1st gear in panicbox. Look at EURAUD - driven by nothing but taper fears the last couple of days...everything else suggest down (well not everything but you get the picture).

2y U.S. yield is important leading up to Dec (plus data of course).

All in all, the whole taper BS is doing nothing but distorting the markets. Will they ? won't they ? What is the SP500 gonna do if they taper ? Will they simultaniously lower the 6.5% UE threshold when they taper ?
  • #353,030
  • Nov 13, 2013 7:17am Nov 13, 2013 7:17am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} dude, you have a weird DX chart. But i see what you mean. Currencies have to be analysed separately, IMO, and we're talking about pound. It can simply outperform others. {quote} I AM considering it that's what's making the call difficult. I do think the taper is less than 50% likely in Dec but it's enough for markets to shift to 1st gear in panicbox. Look at EURAUD - driven by nothing but taper fears the last couple of days...everything else suggest down (well not everything but you get the picture). 2y U.S. yield is important...
True Cable can outperform the other risk currencies, but my point is that if the USD starts a rip roaring rally, cable will fall, albeit at a slower pace than Euro, Aud and JPY.

Re: tapering... Well like I said, as long as market feels it is a possibility or at least it is more possible than what they have priced, USD will gain, USTs will get a yield boost and equity markets will pull back. That part is not rocket science. The rocket science is whether or not they will actually taper.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #353,031
  • Nov 13, 2013 7:41am Nov 13, 2013 7:41am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} True Cable can outperform the other risk currencies, but my point is that if the USD starts a rip roaring rally, cable will fall, albeit at a slower pace than Euro, Aud and JPY. Re: tapering... Well like I said, as long as market feels it is a possibility or at least it is more possible than what they have priced, USD will gain, USTs will get a yield boost and equity markets will pull back. That part is not rocket science. The rocket science is whether or not they will actually taper.

Well we have little over a month to go to know the outcome of the FED. Based solely on past observations the FED has NEVER given a hawkish surprise (dovish surprise on the other hand...)

I guess key is Dec jobs...at least 200 if there's any chance of tapering.

But given the massive daily range in pound and the recent gbp events i think it's easier to stay in the range than to break down, don't you agree ? Especially when there's a good chunk of the taper fear already in the DX. I'm gonna observe the 2y yield and SP500 to get the bias.
  • #353,032
  • Nov 13, 2013 7:46am Nov 13, 2013 7:46am
Good day,

Let her run. It's all good. Eventually.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh4.png Size: 67 KB
  • #353,033
  • Nov 13, 2013 7:49am Nov 13, 2013 7:49am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} Well we have little over a month to go to know the outcome of the FED. Based solely on past observations the FED has NEVER given a hawkish surprise (dovish surprise on the other hand...) I guess key is Dec jobs...at least 200 if there's any chance of tapering. But given the massive daily range in pound and the recent gbp events i think it's easier to stay in the range than to break down, don't you agree ? Especially when there's a good chunk of the taper fear already in the DX. I'm gonna observe the 2y yield and SP500 to get the bias.
I failed to include (although I have said this in the past) that if the Fed does not taper, I think the market is going to push yields up anyway.
It is also my feeling that the Fed already knows this, so in order to avoid loosing the little credibility they have left, they may make a token taper to make it look like it was the Fed that caused the push up in yields rather than have the market at large think (rightfully) that the Fed has lost control.

I also agree with one of your previous comments, that any taper decision will also be accompanied by a revision in the UE threshold before a rate hike will be considered.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #353,034
  • Nov 13, 2013 8:02am Nov 13, 2013 8:02am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I failed to include (although I have said this in the past) that if the Fed does not taper, I think the market is going to push yields up anyway. It is also my feeling that the Fed already knows this, so in order to avoid loosing the little credibility they have left, they may make a token taper to make it look like it was the Fed that caused the push up in yields rather than have the market at large think (rightfully) that the Fed has lost control. I also agree with one of your previous comments, that any taper decision will also...

good point.
  • #353,035
  • Nov 13, 2013 8:18am Nov 13, 2013 8:18am
still bullish. target 6033
  • #353,036
  • Nov 13, 2013 9:05am Nov 13, 2013 9:05am
Hey guys, hope you're doing well. Sending a pending GBP/USD sell @ 1.6004 with SL @ 1.6039 into the market. Wish all good luck and lots of good mood today!
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #353,037
  • Nov 13, 2013 9:09am Nov 13, 2013 9:09am
Quoting Mr.C
Hey guys, hope you're doing well. Sending a pending GBP/USD sell @ 1.6004 with SL @ 1.6039 into the market. Wish all good luck and lots of good mood today!
You trying to get in ahead of me? My pending is at 6005.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #353,038
  • Nov 13, 2013 9:16am Nov 13, 2013 9:16am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} You trying to get in ahead of me? My pending is at 6005.

First on a the south train to get you a seat with a nice view mate. Good luck for us!
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #353,039
  • Nov 13, 2013 10:00am Nov 13, 2013 10:00am
Inserted Video

Quoting iqyu5an
a beginning ?? or ....... ??? {quote} {image}
not euphoria follower
  • #353,040
  • Nov 13, 2013 10:14am Nov 13, 2013 10:14am
Quoting Mr.C
Hey guys, hope you're doing well. Sending a pending GBP/USD sell @ 1.6004 with SL @ 1.6039 into the market. Wish all good luck and lots of good mood today!
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