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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #39,181
  • Nov 11, 2013 3:05pm Nov 11, 2013 3:05pm
Quoting -nd-
Hi Traders, here is all possible wave counts you need to know for USDJPY pair! {image} Enjoy, -nd-
These are pretty much my scenarios as well.
  • #39,182
  • Nov 11, 2013 3:28pm Nov 11, 2013 3:28pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} U R brave! What's your time-frame/expectations? I think we retest the highs on RUT and Nas but then it could go poof!
I have no profit target...except for I believe a new weekly high is nearly a foregone conclusion. Today's low wasn't even a 38.2% weekly retracement and I believe that less retrace = more power to the upside. I was thinking we'd get a stronger close, but instead we got just more sideways. I think the weekly low has been put in today so my new stop is just below today's low.

I just see a very low risk opportunity with monthly/weekly/daily timeframes all green. Similar look with U/J.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,183
  • Nov 11, 2013 3:36pm Nov 11, 2013 3:36pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} I have no profit target...except for I believe a new weekly high is nearly a foregone conclusion. Today's low wasn't even a 38.2% weekly retracement and I believe that less retrace = more power to the upside. I was thinking we'd get a stronger close, but instead we got just more sideways. I think the weekly low has been put in today so my new stop is just below today's low. I just see a very low risk opportunity with monthly/weekly/daily timeframes all green. Similar look with U/J.
I broadly agree with everything you say - wrt SPX at least. On USDJPY, though, I disagree, although I do think we'll see a fakeout on that as well.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #39,184
  • Edited 4:30pm Nov 11, 2013 4:11pm | Edited 4:30pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I broadly agree with everything you say - wrt SPX at least. On USDJPY, though, I disagree, although I do think we'll see a fakeout on that as well.
Well maybe the U/J fakeout was Thursday last week. Between U/J and SPX, I feel more confident long SPX. On the other hand U/J has only been going up for a year and great trends will last longer than a year. Looking at the monthly chart there is no indication that the U/J carry trade is weakening.

Now that my daily candle is closed, I could see another drop to 99, but much more upside potential than downside currently.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,185
  • Nov 11, 2013 6:22pm Nov 11, 2013 6:22pm
Here is a contrarian indicator that I watch for kicks...

http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/fo...r-book#USD/JPY

Price usually goes where the orders are and if you hit cumulative you'll see there are much more sell orders above than buy orders below. More retail is also short U/J below current price than long.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,186
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:37pm Nov 11, 2013 7:37pm
Quoting zusch
Here is a contrarian indicator that I watch for kicks... http://fxtrade.oanda.com/analysis/fo...r-book#USD/JPY Price usually goes where the orders are and if you hit cumulative you'll see there are much more sell orders above than buy orders below. More retail is also short U/J below current price than long.
Watch 99.50/60
  • #39,187
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:20pm Nov 11, 2013 8:20pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Watch 99.50/60
USD JPY Short 99.57
  • #39,188
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:21pm Nov 11, 2013 8:21pm
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} USD JPY Short 99.57
99.598 is a target level
  • #39,189
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:22pm Nov 11, 2013 8:22pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Watch 99.50/60
hey ken you will like my chart
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #39,190
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:25pm Nov 11, 2013 8:25pm
Good luck sellers. Every single timeframe is saying buy and market is moving very fast.

I don't set price targets, but 101 is not out of the realm of possibility this week.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,191
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:48pm Nov 11, 2013 8:48pm
Quoting zusch
Good luck sellers. Every single timeframe is saying buy and market is moving very fast. I don't set price targets, but 101 is not out of the realm of possibility this week.
The option market is currently pricing those chances at approximately 10% between now and Friday afternoon. It seems like its only 150 pips, which is true, but those are a “hard” 150 to make. The path of lesser resistance is downwards, the same move to about 98.00 is priced at approximately 17%.
  • #39,192
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:50pm Nov 11, 2013 8:50pm
Quoting zusch
Good luck sellers. Every single timeframe is saying buy and market is moving very fast. I don't set price targets, but 101 is not out of the realm of possibility this week.
Thanx min. target is 99.26
  • #39,193
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:54pm Nov 11, 2013 8:54pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...77#post7028577

Posted this a few days ago or so on my Harmonic pattern thread. Currently long for different reasons but here is an update to the development of the trade opportunities:


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UsdJpy Daily.gif Size: 55 KB



Enjoy, have fun, trade your plan, make a great day, do your own due diligence and may we all make bank!!
Don't follow me! You can and most likely will LOSE all your money!!!!
  • #39,194
  • Nov 11, 2013 9:00pm Nov 11, 2013 9:00pm
Quoting seandean
{quote} The option market is currently pricing those chances at approximately 10% between now and Friday afternoon. It seems like its only 150 pips, which is true, but those are a “hard” 150 to make. The path of lesser resistance is downwards, the same move to about 98.00 is priced at approximately 17%.
...
Attached Image
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,195
  • Nov 11, 2013 10:01pm Nov 11, 2013 10:01pm
1h inside bar. Bought at 99.57 (after spread).
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,196
  • Nov 11, 2013 10:24pm Nov 11, 2013 10:24pm
I've decided to bracket trade this with shorts. My projected s/l isn't that far so it makes it a low risk trade for me.


Shorts in 99.471.

If it fails then I'll have confirmation for the bull period.

S/L 100.60
  • #39,197
  • Nov 11, 2013 11:02pm Nov 11, 2013 11:02pm
Quoting zusch
1h inside bar. Bought at 99.57 (after spread).
Previous 1hr low was breached, but I gave it its full hour. Looks like a big bear trap. 1hr left in my 4hr candle so possible to see some solid buying continuation from last hours close.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,198
  • Nov 11, 2013 11:14pm Nov 11, 2013 11:14pm
Long and strong for me.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #39,199
  • Nov 11, 2013 11:33pm Nov 11, 2013 11:33pm
Yes! in the green right now!!!!

You know how long i waited for this to happen?



Quoting forex_fairy
{quote} that loss was my first loss in like 20 TPs. Well i wanted to get back i know it's probably false but it seems like the markets seem to know how i trade and set me up for me. Yup me personally.
  • #39,200
  • Edited 11:56pm Nov 11, 2013 11:44pm | Edited 11:56pm
if it jumps straight up to 99.7X-8X i will unload a few and look for rebuy. 4 hr:

http://s23.postimg.org/4ezvccyeh/usdjpy.jpg
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