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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #39,161
  • Nov 10, 2013 10:22pm Nov 10, 2013 10:22pm
Quoting nisack
{quote} Thank you for that. It's hard to download the entire thread offline but I have saved the link to read this in the airport as well.
Hope I'm not posting this too late, but here is a link to a post in the tread where a member made a .pdf file of PipEasy's posts only.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...85#post5105285
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,162
  • Nov 10, 2013 10:47pm Nov 10, 2013 10:47pm
Quoting zusch
{quote} Hope I'm not posting this too late, but here is a link to a post in the tread where a member made a .pdf file of PipEasy's posts only. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...85#post5105285
Thanks Zusch! Actually just in time before I check out, managed to download all for offline reading later.

Now uj please stay above 99 or else 98.6 will become a reality!
  • #39,163
  • Nov 11, 2013 12:01am Nov 11, 2013 12:01am
4hr close a pip under 99. Range really tightening, needs to move one way or another.

/ES with very bullish 1hr & 4hr charts.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,164
  • Nov 11, 2013 12:05am Nov 11, 2013 12:05am
Basically a coin flip whether it goes up or down in next 4hr. But then you look at weekly chart and you see a buy candle. So you buy. That is how traders make big money and are only right ~50%...sometimes even less.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,165
  • Nov 11, 2013 12:52am Nov 11, 2013 12:52am
USD / JPY it is creating a pattern going down the stairs. It's a bad pattern.
ability to support test is feasible 98.500 to 98.600
The following diagram shows us that (only a matter of time):
Attached Image
  • #39,166
  • Nov 11, 2013 1:14am Nov 11, 2013 1:14am
Quoting forex_fairy
I spoke too soon i guess. Yes it opened much higher than last week's close but it's dropping and is now below the 99. Wow this really sucks and i predict it probably won't rise above the 99 at least until the US open and will stay at the 99.2 region if it rises at the US open.
US and Canada have bank holiday today, allegedly. What is your view on the likely behaviour of UJ later in the day?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #39,167
  • Nov 11, 2013 1:21am Nov 11, 2013 1:21am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} US and Canada have bank holiday today, allegedly.
United States is observing Veterans Day/Canada is observing Rememberance Day... allegedly.

Usd/Jpy has offers ahead of both the 99.50 and 100.00 lvls as a result of No-Touch exotic option protection under those levels.
  • #39,168
  • Nov 11, 2013 4:03am Nov 11, 2013 4:03am
Ah yes, we observed Rememberance Day yesterday. Nothing wrong with another minute's silence in about an hour though.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #39,169
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:49am Nov 11, 2013 7:49am
Quoting huuhaoftr
USD / JPY it is creating a pattern going down the stairs. It's a bad pattern. ability to support test is feasible 98.500 to 98.600 The following diagram shows us that (only a matter of time): {image}
looks like it goings up and up and up
  • #39,170
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:01am Nov 11, 2013 8:01am
Price set up for a nice NY session it seems. 99 shouldn't be tested again.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,171
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:19am Nov 11, 2013 8:19am
Trend is up on 12hr and 4hr. Which does not mean that a down-snap is impossible.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #39,172
  • Nov 11, 2013 9:00am Nov 11, 2013 9:00am
Quoting forex_fairy
{quote} Ok if it's not random or rigger can you predict the movement?
Sry fairy, its too long and I dont like to read about sports betting, prefere trading posts. Actually dunno what are we talking bout, seems kind of nonscence. Y, trading has same MM like many other things, including selling of apples and sports betting. I actually dont care, sorry.
Anyway, today still longing UJ and selling EU but taking profits partially in very small pieces, cause I expect retest of breakzone @ 98,6. Right now next partial at 99,39.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #39,173
  • Nov 11, 2013 10:51am Nov 11, 2013 10:51am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} US and Canada have bank holiday today, allegedly. What is your view on the likely behaviour of UJ later in the day?
Yet again the US banks have a holiday but the stock markets are open, apparently.
Anybody care to throw some light on that ?
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #39,174
  • Nov 11, 2013 11:01am Nov 11, 2013 11:01am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Yet again the US banks have a holiday but the stock markets are open, apparently. Anybody care to throw some light on that ?
Greed and manipulation can not stop. Like an addiction lol..
  • #39,175
  • Nov 11, 2013 11:11am Nov 11, 2013 11:11am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Yet again the US banks have a holiday but the stock markets are open, apparently. Anybody care to throw some light on that ?
Just another day for gov't workers to get paid time off.

Many thanks to our troops though!
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,176
  • Nov 11, 2013 11:46am Nov 11, 2013 11:46am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Sry fairy, its too long and I dont like to read about sports betting, prefere trading posts. Actually dunno what are we talking bout, seems kind of nonscence. Y, trading has same MM like many other things, including selling of apples and sports betting. I actually dont care, sorry. Anyway, today still longing UJ and selling EU but taking profits partially in very small pieces, cause I expect retest of breakzone @ 98,6. Right now next partial at 99,39. T

If you do know what the meaning of analogy is.
  • #39,177
  • Nov 11, 2013 12:02pm Nov 11, 2013 12:02pm
Stall on 4hr. I believe it will grind higher. Just bought SPY as well.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,178
  • Nov 11, 2013 12:03pm Nov 11, 2013 12:03pm
Quoting nisack
{quote} Thanks Seandean, you may say i am focusing on the wrong thing but i really want to get some consistent profit with forex before looking at options (pardon my pun). I noticed the biggest problem with myself is psychology... patience, stress etc, I want to be able to overcome that by using a good rr ratio and a good heart to manage the roller coaster rides that comes along with that.


If your biggest problem is psychology of trading, specifically stress and patience selling options is exactly what you should be doing!

All you need to do is start selling deep-OTM options, you enter the position as a winner and you force the market to move beyond your profit position. Initially (with high probability throughout the entire trade) no roller coaster rides or stressful moments need apply, you sit back and wait, each day you realize money on the decay of the value of the sold option.

When you trade spot forex, it’s more or less a gamble where the market is going. You might get clues, be it trends, key price areas, etc. but you always enter the trade as a loser, just on the basis of the bid/ask spread alone.

RR (risk reward) ratios are most commonly used in forex, at least based on posts in this forum as a scapegoat excuse to enter some trade. It does not manage risk at all; it does calculate maximum loss of that particular trade if you do indeed follow it.

Options manage risk, and used in conjunction with RR ratios can be used to calculate maximum loss. So this is what you get before you enter the trade; you know what your maximum profit is, you know what your maximum loss is, you know where the market must go, within a pre-determined timeframe for any loss to start occurring and you know your initial probabilities of success it will/won’t get there.

Roller coasters are for theme parks, not trading.
  • #39,179
  • Nov 11, 2013 2:21pm Nov 11, 2013 2:21pm
Quoting zusch
Just bought SPY as well.
U R brave! What's your time-frame/expectations? I think we retest the highs on RUT and Nas but then it could go poof!
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #39,180
  • Nov 11, 2013 2:25pm Nov 11, 2013 2:25pm
I really do think that this USD/JPY has an excellent setup for a very strong UP move targeting 101.40 and then 103.75
A broken trendline with a retest of the Fib level and downside rejection . A definite BUY for me .
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