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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #352,621
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:33am Nov 11, 2013 7:33am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} 1.58 in a couple of days.


Seriously though, I think that's a little unlikely but I wouldn't say it's not possible. It'll be a good buying opportunity if it comes.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #352,622
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:41am Nov 11, 2013 7:41am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} they don't NEED to do anything and i very much doubt they will act for that reason. The only reason for tapering is STRONG data, 200+ jobs is a very good start but the lack of inflation is giving the taper a yellow light. They will run the QE as long as they achieve their desired fake bubbled up economy or till either the currency or bond market crashes. Anchored inflation expectations (1Y declining, 5y flat) will keep the latter from happening so, keep on printing (don't get me wrong, tapering (refrase: A taper) is still likely,...
I agree.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #352,623
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:53am Nov 11, 2013 7:53am
I suppose all the way to 1.5750 is possible:
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I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #352,624
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:55am Nov 11, 2013 7:55am
The only thing I would say is that of all the pairs, I think GBPUSD is the clearest: that so-called double top is probably not going to hold; there is a very good possibility it's at least going to be tested, even if the test fails.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #352,625
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:56am Nov 11, 2013 7:56am
Quoting Boy Wonder
I suppose all the way to 1.5750 is possible: {image}
you just said 1.58 unlikely. im telling you that when it sees 1.58, it wont see 1.6 any time soon again.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #352,626
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:01am Nov 11, 2013 8:01am
I'm much more bearish on this pair than most it seems. I think we test 1.5000 in the next 3-4 months. I'm shorting the rises. Holding short from 1.61 and adding on rises. As of now my TP is 1.50 by January, but will watch PA. SL is break even. Expecting Major profit on these trades.
  • #352,627
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:03am Nov 11, 2013 8:03am
Quoting cdndollar
{quote} Good day Sir Tau.. yes, 1.59 is the S/T teaser here with Cable & EURGBP doing the push pull Tango.. since our beloved Cable & Euro move in a macro same direction, where Euro goes, Cable follows.. or vice versa.. cdndollar| Nov 5, 2013 {image} EUR, GBP & EURGBP still doing their 3 way lead lag line dance here with EUR getting squeezed while GBP & EURGBP try to out shine each other.....
Sir CD,

Good to see you around!

We will have to see what the longer term plan is..

All success to you

Regards
  • #352,628
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:05am Nov 11, 2013 8:05am
Quoting lumesh
{quote} they don't NEED to do anything and i very much doubt they will act for that reason. The only reason for tapering is STRONG data, 200+ jobs is a very good start but the lack of inflation is giving the taper a yellow light. They will run the QE as long as they achieve their desired fake bubbled up economy or till either the currency or bond market crashes. Anchored inflation expectations (1Y declining, 5y flat) will keep the latter from happening so, keep on printing (don't get me wrong, tapering (refrase: A taper) is still likely,...
I agree it's going to be extremely difficult to start a taper without causing a surge in the benchmark (10Y) yield. The thing is that the longer they keep printing, the harder it will become.

It's like a crack addict (the market). The more addicted, the harder it will be to quit and the higher the chances of heart failure leading to sudden death. When/if the supplier (The Fed) starts "tapering" the supply of crack, it has to be a consistent reduction. Cannot just cut down the supply to 4 hits a day from 5 and stay at that level, otherwise it will be back up to 5 in no time and maybe even 6. So when tapering starts, it has to finish within a short period of time (6 to 9 months).

Yes the addict will not like it and will have fits of smashing things, but once the addict realizes that there is nothing that can be done about it and that there is a light at the end of the tunnel, acceptance will sink in and life will be good again... without the crack. This is why it has to be a consistent reduction otherwise the addict will get hooked on the new amount and pressure the supplier to deliver more. However, if the addict is made to realize from the start that it's all coming to an end whether he likes it or not, the acceptance will sink in sooner and the addict will start functioning without crack even while there is still some supply left.

Yes the bond yields are going to fly, but that will only be temporary. Call it a knee-jerk reaction on a grand scale. As long as the US data is strong, the economy can handle a punch in the gut. There is no other way. The Fed has to end it now before the markets end it themselves with an overdose (bubble... burst... crash... bang... BOOM!!!)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #352,629
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:05am Nov 11, 2013 8:05am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} you just said 1.58 unlikely. im telling you that when it sees 1.58, it wont see 1.6 any time soon again.
Yes I'm a trader mate. I deal in expectations and perceived probability and understand my own limitations. That means, I may think something is unlikely, but I've thought the same thing millions of times in the past and the market has humbled my expectations probably most of the time so I've learnt to expect the unexpected and accept that I am going to be wrong at least half of the time.
I could've said, that's never going to happen, and hunkered down in my cosy world where I reject all incoming information that is inconsistent with my own views and beliefs. Pretty much what most people do. Instead I took a look at the chart to see if it could work and I found a way that it could, whilst still remaining inside my overall bullish thesis.
That said, I also accept that my overall bullish thesis could be wrong. But I live in the UK and the bullishness of the surveys that I'm hearing about is something else. If (just an if) those surveys are right there's no way this is the top for cable - unless the US is shaping up to be equally bullish, which is entirely possibly, I'll concede.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #352,630
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:05am Nov 11, 2013 8:05am
Quoting Boy Wonder
The only thing I would say is that of all the pairs, I think GBPUSD is the clearest: that so-called double top is probably not going to hold; there is a very good possibility it's at least going to be tested, even if the test fails.

let me give u a warming..this move down is gbp losing strength...it has nothing to do with dollar..if dollar gain..this thing drop drop twice as quick..u need to be careful because yur on the wrong side imho

on the wrong extreme, i ofcourse can be wrong thou
  • #352,631
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:11am Nov 11, 2013 8:11am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Yes I'm a trader mate. I deal in expectations and perceived probability and understand my own limitations. That means, I may think something is unlikely, but I've thought the same thing millions of times in the past and the market has humbled my expectations probably most of the time so I've learnt to expect the unexpected and accept that I am going to be wrong at least half of the time. I could've said, that's never going to happen, and hunkered down in my cosy world where I reject all incoming information that is inconsistent with my own...
Great post
It's about time somebody wrote it.
Not about the bullishness, coz I see a bearish tone here, but more so about being wrong some of the time. After all we are not psychic.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #352,632
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:19am Nov 11, 2013 8:19am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} let me give u a warming..this move down is gbp losing strength...it has nothing to do with dollar..if dollar gain..this thing drop drop twice as quick..u need to be careful because yur on the wrong side imho on the wrong extreme, i ofcourse can be wrong thou
hey budd u must be kidding me when u say this move down is sterling losing strength???

look at dollar across the board..
1) usd/jpy up 200.. no jpy weaking , dollar strength
2) aud/usd nzd/usd down 200.. despite good data in aus and kiwi.. pure dollar strength


eur/usd down 400-- poor inflation and rate cut.. hence bringing sterling down with it.. massive dollar buying agaisnt euro brings gbp/uisd down too

if u want to take out the dollar effect then look at gbp/nzd. gbp/aud, gbp/chf u will realize sterling hasnt weakened at all
  • #352,633
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:23am Nov 11, 2013 8:23am
Quoting akki300986
{quote} hey budd u must be kidding me when u say this move down is sterling losing strength??? look at dollar across the board.. 1) usd/jpy up 200.. no jpy weaking , dollar strength 2) aud/usd nzd/usd down 200.. despite good data in aus and kiwi.. pure dollar strength eur/usd down 400-- poor inflation and rate cut.. hence bringing sterling down with it.. massive dollar buying agaisnt euro brings gbp/uisd down too if u want to take out the dollar effect then look at gbp/nzd. gbp/aud, gbp/chf u will realize sterling hasnt weakened at all
yes it is.
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  • #352,634
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:27am Nov 11, 2013 8:27am
Quoting akki300986
{quote} hey budd u must be kidding me when u say this move down is sterling losing strength??? look at dollar across the board.. 1) usd/jpy up 200.. no jpy weaking , dollar strength 2) aud/usd nzd/usd down 200.. despite good data in aus and kiwi.. pure dollar strength eur/usd down 400-- poor inflation and rate cut.. hence bringing sterling down with it.. massive dollar buying agaisnt euro brings gbp/uisd down too if u want to take out the dollar effect then look at gbp/nzd. gbp/aud, gbp/chf u will realize sterling hasnt weakened at all
the dollar has weakened today but gbp has weakened more..that is why cable is below 1.6..the point i want to make is gbp strength is right up at resistance and i personally trading a short because i consider it high probability sell ...
USD i believe will get stronger..time will tell..

nobody is right all the time
  • #352,635
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:30am Nov 11, 2013 8:30am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} the dollar has weakened today but gbp has weakened more..that is why cable is below 1.6..the point i want to make is gbp strength is right up at resistance and i personally trading a short because i consider it high probability sell ... USD i believe will get stronger..time will tell..
GBP is, if I am right, in impulsive 3rd wave down.

USD on the other hand is likely starting corrective c-wave down.

So GBP/USD is gonna fall, and when USD's correction is done and start impulsive up move, GBP might start correcting but again USD strength > GBP strength.

One day we might get both of them in an impulse and boom u get 200 pip day.
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  • #352,636
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:31am Nov 11, 2013 8:31am
Quoting britc17
I'm much more bearish on this pair than most it seems. I think we test 1.5000 in the next 3-4 months. I'm shorting the rises. Holding short from 1.61 and adding on rises. As of now my TP is 1.50 by January, but will watch PA. SL is break even. Expecting Major profit on these trades.

well, you would be betting against fundamentals then. But G/U is notorious for achieveing its direction out of thin air. 1.55 is rational if the massive double top endorses panic but other that we need more data. RIght now UK's data surprise index favours downside so a break below 1.59 is possible. As always, time and future data will tell. Mixed signals for pound, atm
  • #352,637
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:34am Nov 11, 2013 8:34am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} GBP is, if I am right, in impulsive 3rd wave down. USD on the other hand is likely starting corrective c-wave down. So GBP/USD is gonna fall, and when USD's correction is done and start impulsive up move, GBP might start correcting but again USD strength > GBP strength. One day we might get both of them in an impulse and boom u get 200 pip day.

i dont agree with Elliot wave theories its very subjective and to predictive as in its very easy to develop a bias
  • #352,638
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:34am Nov 11, 2013 8:34am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} i dont agree with Elliot wave theories its very subjective and to predictive as in its very easy to develop a bias
Use it for entries and to see big picture. If things go your way you are right, if not you're wrong and get out lol.

trading is subjective.

when you're right though, the rewards can be substantial; remember upside is unlimited, downside is limited by margin call.
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  • #352,639
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:38am Nov 11, 2013 8:38am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Use it for entries and to see big picture. If things go your way you are right, if not you're wrong and get out lol. trading is subjective.

can be
  • #352,640
  • Nov 11, 2013 8:39am Nov 11, 2013 8:39am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} can be
actually I can show that all technical patterns, indicators are derivatives of EW (which itself is a derivative of price and time).

when I first learnt it 3 years ago, I sucked at it, was just slapping numbers and alphabets onto curves - abandoned it but over the years after trying everything realised that it is still the best tool when used for finetuning ENTRIES and BIG PICTURE only (not to guess where price might go in the next 1 hour)
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