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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #352,601
  • Nov 11, 2013 5:15am Nov 11, 2013 5:15am
this may be out of date by the time it gets posted as there is a delay on new member's posts - ie goes to moderator/admin first on first few posts made...anyway,...the nearest support and resistance on 1hr are as chart below.

Best Wishes.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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it's all gone a bit........
  • #352,602
  • Nov 11, 2013 5:40am Nov 11, 2013 5:40am
Look at the bigger picture guys.While the pound stays below present daily swing high at 6265 and the 2013 high at 6342 the higher probability trade is to the downside while it stays below the UTL on the monthly chart which is capped by a significant 38.2% fibo @ 6430... In 2009 and 2011 the pound struggled to overcome the 88.6% fib. While the pound is below the 88.6% fibo @ 6170....Im bearish...Realisticaly has fundamentals really changed that much to see the value of the pound any higher than its been in the last four years?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #352,603
  • Nov 11, 2013 5:42am Nov 11, 2013 5:42am
Good day,

I'm still not convinced..

you can call me hard ass - bias - stupid - silly. Does not matter.

I do have a lower target @ 1.5562. Said so over a few posts.. But something is not right here - cannot put my finger on it. Maybe I have become over suspicious

I can only change my view once 1.5900 goes.

Regards
  • #352,604
  • Nov 11, 2013 5:48am Nov 11, 2013 5:48am
Good day TauTrader.......


I fully agree also 5900 support needs to be broken for continuation of the bearish move
  • #352,605
  • Nov 11, 2013 5:49am Nov 11, 2013 5:49am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day, I'm still not convinced.. you can call me hard ass - bias - stupid - silly. Does not matter. I do have a lower target @ 1.5562. Said so over a few posts.. But something is not right here - cannot put my finger on it. Maybe I have become over suspicious I can only change my view once 1.5900 goes. Regards
First it's a slow day because it is Veteran's Day in the US and Remembrance Day in Canada.
Second, there is significant UK data tomorrow (CPI), Thursday (Employment) and next week (GDP), so the market is indecisive.

I wouldn't bet on any significant moves in either direction until the data becomes clear as to whether or not Cable got too far ahead of itself.
If it did, expect 1.5900 to give way like wet toilet paper. If the rally from July lows is justified, then it's already mostly priced in so upside will be limited... but still good for 100 or so pips... maybe 200.

Regardless of above, I feel the market is still going to be bullish the USD (maybe after a small correction) as it becomes more and more evident that the Fed will soon have no choice but to start tapering.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #352,606
  • Nov 11, 2013 6:13am Nov 11, 2013 6:13am
it's the fundamentals affecting the (Uk) £ versus the fundamentals affecting the (Usa) $ - it isn't just a one sided equation...for eg even if Uk fundaments stay as they are but fed keeps printing $'s - then likely the £ will rise as $ being devalued by more supply of it....and yes fundamentals in Uk have changed in last 4 years fairly significantly...ie have a govt committed to a balanced budget and surpluses, likely no more Qe, Boe - different Governor and style, and recovery is underway re GDP etc.

Best Wishes.

Quoting gio123
Look at the bigger picture guys.While the pound stays below present daily swing high at 6265 and the 2013 high at 6342 the higher probability trade is to the downside while it stays below the UTL on the monthly chart which is capped by a significant 38.2% fibo @ 6430... In 2009 and 2011 the pound struggled to overcome the 88.6% fib. While the pound is below the 88.6% fibo @ 6170....Im bearish...Realisticaly has fundamentals really changed that much to see the value of the pound any higher than its been in the last four years? {image}
it's all gone a bit........
  • #352,607
  • Nov 11, 2013 6:17am Nov 11, 2013 6:17am
fight between buyers n sellers at 5990 now.
if bull wins, we might see a fight towards 6030. at 50fib. well thats fib.
if bear wins, we could see 5956.
go with ur own.

for me. im scalping long since 5980 n watchin the trend now.
  • #352,608
  • Nov 11, 2013 6:17am Nov 11, 2013 6:17am
Quoting petetong
it's the fundamentals affecting the (Uk) £ versus the fundamentals affecting the (Usa) $ - it isn't just a one sided equation...for eg even if Uk fundaments stay as they are but fed keeps printing $'s - then likely the £ will rise as $ being devalued by more supply of it....and yes fundamentals in Uk have changed in last 4 years fairly significantly...ie have a govt committed to a balanced budget and surpluses, likely no more Qe, Boe - different Governor and style, and recovery is underway re GDP etc. Best Wishes. {quote}
The official rhetoric is that they are committed to a balanced budget. But take a look at the underlying productivity numbers, and the declining rates of investment and the fact that the pound's weightage in the international trade basket (that has not changed for ages because UK was once a dominant trade force) might be reduced significantly in the reassessment in 2015 Jan. All these factors tell me that, while contrarian at the moment, pound is going to take a huge beating in the next 1-2 years.

and perhaps it is just a coincidence that we may be breaking out of the huge monthly triangle (b-wave) soon...?

You don't have to agree with me, in fact I'd be more assured if you didn't.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #352,609
  • Nov 11, 2013 6:24am Nov 11, 2013 6:24am
Cup & handle pattern in GBP/NZD .

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPNZ.png Size: 39 KB
Never test the depth of water with both feet.
  • #352,610
  • Nov 11, 2013 6:30am Nov 11, 2013 6:30am
Quoting fxlover11
Cup & handle pattern in GBP/NZD . {image}


Cup and Handle is most of the time continuation of bullish formation....


http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...th_handle_cont
  • #352,611
  • Nov 11, 2013 6:36am Nov 11, 2013 6:36am
Quoting cesarg
{quote} Cup and Handle is most of the time continuation of bullish formation.... http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...th_handle_cont
I know. Here I made my wave count . If my count proved invalid then what I counted as wave b will be proved as a part of wave c . But I expect a retrace of 50% in GBPNZ .
Never test the depth of water with both feet.
  • #352,612
  • Nov 11, 2013 6:55am Nov 11, 2013 6:55am
short..USA traders are of today but i took it

GL all!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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when GOD brings you a challenge he also gives you the power to deal with it
  • #352,613
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:11am Nov 11, 2013 7:11am
".......You don't have to agree with me, in fact I'd be more assured if you didn't...."

Strange thing to say to anyone you know nothing about, and somewhat arrogant. The market has a way of punishing the arrogant so what will happen will happen. Re your other comments re the issue being discussed...perception can be as important as reality...even if your take on it is correct, and it may or may not be.
it's all gone a bit........
  • #352,614
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:16am Nov 11, 2013 7:16am
Quoting petetong
".......You don't have to agree with me, in fact I'd be more assured if you didn't...." Strange thing to say to anyone you know nothing about, and somewhat arrogant. The market has a way of punishing the arrogant so what will happen will happen. Re your other comments re the issue being discussed...perception can be as important as reality...even if your take on it is correct, and it may or may not be.
It's not being arrogant. I may be wrong, but I would rather people didn't agree with me. Because then if I am right, the rewards are larger. cheers,
Build good relationships with others.
  • #352,615
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:22am Nov 11, 2013 7:22am
Quoting petetong
".......You don't have to agree with me, in fact I'd be more assured if you didn't...." Strange thing to say to anyone you know nothing about, and somewhat arrogant. The market has a way of punishing the arrogant so what will happen will happen. Re your other comments re the issue being discussed...perception can be as important as reality...even if your take on it is correct, and it may or may not be.
I apologise if I offended you in anyway - perhaps assured was not a good choice of words.

Cheers.
Build good relationships with others.
  • #352,616
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:24am Nov 11, 2013 7:24am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote}Regardless of above, I feel the market is still going to be bullish the USD (maybe after a small correction) as it becomes more and more evident that the Fed will soon have no choice but to start tapering.

they don't NEED to do anything and i very much doubt they will act for that reason. The only reason for tapering is STRONG data, 200+ jobs is a very good start but the lack of inflation is giving the taper a yellow light.

They will run the QE as long as they achieve their desired fake bubbled up economy or till either the currency or bond market crashes. Anchored inflation expectations (1Y declining, 5y flat) will keep the latter from happening so, keep on printing

(don't get me wrong, tapering (refrase: A taper) is still likely, imo, albeit not this year, i just have doubts about a SUSTAINED tapering till they stop buying assets)
  • #352,617
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:26am Nov 11, 2013 7:26am
Hello Guys,

What is the next level for Cable. I am expecting this travelling to next S level
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  • #352,618
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:31am Nov 11, 2013 7:31am
Quoting Parox
Hello Guys, What is the next level for Cable. I am expecting this travelling to next S level {image}
1.58 in a couple of days.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #352,619
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:32am Nov 11, 2013 7:32am
Quoting eitan1010
short..USA traders are of today but i took it GL all! {image}
triple TP hit

done for today

GL all
when GOD brings you a challenge he also gives you the power to deal with it
  • #352,620
  • Nov 11, 2013 7:33am Nov 11, 2013 7:33am
Quoting TauTrader
Good day, I'm still not convinced.. you can call me hard ass - bias - stupid - silly. Does not matter. I do have a lower target @ 1.5562. Said so over a few posts.. But something is not right here - cannot put my finger on it. Maybe I have become over suspicious I can only change my view once 1.5900 goes. Regards
Good day Sir Tau.. yes, 1.59 is the S/T teaser here with Cable & EURGBP doing the push pull Tango.. since our beloved Cable & Euro move in a macro same direction, where Euro goes, Cable follows.. or vice versa..

cdndollar| Nov 5, 2013


http://assets.forexfactory.net/nfs/c...ar294966_2.gif

EUR, GBP & EURGBP still doing their 3 way lead lag line dance here with EUR getting squeezed while GBP & EURGBP try to out shine each other.. GBP, with support from our friend Bone's lower TL & the Weekly Golden Cross could zigzag 1.59~1.62 near term prior to another attempt to break over the L/T Wedge top..
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