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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #352,541
  • Nov 9, 2013 2:12pm Nov 9, 2013 2:12pm
Quoting Davit
Currently reading Hedge Fund Wizards came to this. Jimmy Balodimas Stepping in Front of Freight Trains Jimmy Balodimas breaks all the rules. He sells into uptrends and buys into downtrends. He adds to losers and cuts his winners short. He is a predominant short in a market that is up the majority of days. By any of the standard guidelines for trading success, Balodimas shouldn’t survive in the markets, let alone thrive. Yet he is one of the most successful traders at First New York Securities, the prop trading firm at which he began his career 15...
All falls into money management. One can enter his trades as s/he likes, the question is, can s/he pull out money from it and grow her/his account constantly. With half-baked money management - NO, with think through money management - YES.
  • #352,542
  • Nov 9, 2013 2:57pm Nov 9, 2013 2:57pm
Quoting 1pipperhour
{quote} All falls into money management. One can enter his trades as s/he likes, the question is, can s/he pull out money from it and grow her/his account constantly. With half-baked money management - NO, with think through money management - YES.
Money management without a real edge is foolhardy, MM will only prolong the death
  • #352,543
  • Nov 9, 2013 4:24pm Nov 9, 2013 4:24pm
well I can say what im thinking ,but agree with bbmac that this is a consolidation zone ,for candles especially it will always be a difficult read
I can read the story though 2 rejections off major pivot ,when the lower 5.9 is not
outside rising channel test off underside
test of weekly doji at top
close below month pivot and w1 pivot

initially I will be looking for price to stay in box ,with very little buying ,and I will show why on gbp lfx ,usd lfx why ,also that we have a bearish candle Friday
lower wick is difficult read ,to me it allowed lower tf to test the bullish looking h4 that failed dismally


Quoting okanemici
{quote} Sometimes people tend to fall in love with their positions, you might have a point.During the friday NFP just before the release although I figured gold is not going up anymore I was still wanting it to go up.I'll get better when I keep learning from my mistakes. What do you say about the gbpusd 1.6045-50 sell limit ?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbp USD h4 Spot.png Size: 26 KB
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  • #352,544
  • Nov 9, 2013 4:40pm Nov 9, 2013 4:40pm
gbp lfx is in consolidation zone ,im looking for fail ,prefer no gap up ,or even break ,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbplfxweekly 9-11-13.png Size: 32 KB
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  • #352,545
  • Nov 9, 2013 4:44pm Nov 9, 2013 4:44pm
usd has made a bullish move ,break tl ,land on pivot im looking for bullish straight off

each must move off pivots in right direction which does not allow cable buying


Quoting Bones
don't believe ? check $ {image}
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  • #352,546
  • Nov 9, 2013 4:51pm Nov 9, 2013 4:51pm
I see long upper wick (break to be sure candle)

I see shooting star

I see evening star off top ,


w1 cable
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp USD w1 Spot.png Size: 31 KB
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  • #352,547
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:01pm Nov 9, 2013 5:01pm
Hey shell ,I have read with interest how you count I will be honest wave counting is not my thing ,as im useless , seems very subjective ,but then I guess so are candles ,As long as your in my camp I agree lol
nice charts




Quoting shellsnail
{quote} Bones, I have read some of your posts and know how good you are at analysing the markets. I am in the bearish camp as well but I need to warn that while USD seems to be starting the second leg up on its monthly chart. GBP also seems to be in the middle of a third wave on its monthly chart. I would love to count it as a zigzag but the leading diagonal in wave 1 followed by the deep retracement and the sharp acceleration of trend characteristic of a third wave just does not seem to support the bearish count. {image} Furthermore, we broke a...
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  • #352,548
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:11pm Nov 9, 2013 5:11pm
whilst weekly looks bullish I can move lower and read rejection


Quoting Bones
BEARISH scenario {image}
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  • #352,549
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:12pm Nov 9, 2013 5:12pm
rounded top
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbplfxh4.png Size: 30 KB
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  • #352,550
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:13pm Nov 9, 2013 5:13pm
Quoting Bones
Hey shell ,I have read with interest how you count I will be honest wave counting is not my thing ,as im useless , seems very subjective ,but then I guess so are candles ,As long as your in my camp I agree lol nice charts {quote}
Yeah I went back and looked at the charts for GBP/LFX again and I think it really doesn't matter that much what the wave count is. We could have seen a rare WXY pattern instead of the bullish count that I had.

What matters is that we have completed an A-B-C zig-zag move up that follows the fib ratio A=C. We are going to see move down, just don't know how large. and if we zoom into the micro level, the count supports this view because we made a 5 wave down and now we have just completed a 3 wave correction. If I am not wrong, we could see GBP/USD fall from the open tomorrow until Friday all the way selling pressure till we hit 1.57 and then we will rebound to test 1.589 before selling off huge again.
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  • #352,551
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:14pm Nov 9, 2013 5:14pm
Quoting Bones
well I can say what im thinking ,but agree with bbmac that this is a consolidation zone ,for candles especially it will always be a difficult read I can read the story though 2 rejections off major pivot ,when the lower 5.9 is not outside rising channel test off underside test of weekly doji at top close below month pivot and w1 pivot initially I will be looking for price to stay in box ,with very little buying ,and I will show why on gbp lfx ,usd lfx why ,also that we have a bearish candle Friday lower wick is difficult read ,to me it allowed lower...

Bones, to me this is an easy one.I was expecting the sharp pullback and the drop from there .You can see it from my ex conversations with Navin.This week is good for a safe short in cable. Here is my game plan in gbpusd .I expect the same thing what happened around a year ago .Monday is us bank holiday so the real move should start after tuesday ny make a push up to 1.6050 again to short from there.
When the week opens I 'll make sure the exact entry point but it will be around 1.6050 where I short this.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD7.jpg Size: 610 KB
  • #352,552
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:16pm Nov 9, 2013 5:16pm
Quoting okanemici
{quote} Bones, to me this is an easy one.I was expecting the sharp pullback and the drop from there .You can see it from my ex conversations with Navin.This week is good for a safe short in cable. Here is my game plan in gbpusd .I expect the same thing what happened around a year ago .Monday is us bank holiday so the real move should start after tuesday ny make a push up to 1.6050 again to short from there. When the week opens I 'll make sure the exact entry point but it will be around 1.6050 where I short this. {image}
I would short on the open if I were you (assuming no gap down) If there's a gap down, limit order at 1.6013 seems like a best bet to me. just my 2 cents.
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  • #352,553
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:18pm Nov 9, 2013 5:18pm
d1
why gbp shot up up I have no idea/or care ,overall longer term have to agree generally bullish

Quoting Bones
rounded top {image}
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  • #352,554
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:25pm Nov 9, 2013 5:25pm
Quoting Bones
d1 why gbp shot up up I have no idea/or care ,overall longer term have to agree generally bullish {quote} {image}
Here's my view.

Updated showing divergences and why the labeling is as such.
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  • #352,555
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:29pm Nov 9, 2013 5:29pm
closed in gap don't be surprised to see gaps ,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdlfxweekly 9-11-13.png Size: 30 KB
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  • #352,556
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:34pm Nov 9, 2013 5:34pm
Quoting Bones
d1 why gbp shot up up I have no idea/or care ,overall longer term have to agree generally bullish {quote} {image}
It was because of the sharp pullback it needed in gbpusd imho.Below 2.76 you can count it dead , and this is a challenge if you are looking for one
By the way gbpusd can still be bearish even gbplfx stay over 2.76 , if usdlfx keep rising violently.
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  • #352,557
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:39pm Nov 9, 2013 5:39pm
yea cool ,
with gold now you might say tricky bull set up against bear ,in consolidation

bear have tl confirmation, I see lower
bear have monthly
bear have most of the move seen on one day (Friday)


Quoting okanemici
{quote} Bones, to me this is an easy one.I was expecting the sharp pullback and the drop from there .You can see it from my ex conversations with Navin.This week is good for a safe short in cable. Here is my game plan in gbpusd .I expect the same thing what happened around a year ago .Monday is us bank holiday so the real move should start after tuesday ny make a push up to 1.6050 again to short from there. When the week opens I 'll make sure the exact entry point but it will be around 1.6050 where I short this. {image}
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdlfxh4 9.png Size: 26 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusdweekly 9-11-13.png Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: xauusddaily 9=11.png Size: 29 KB
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  • #352,558
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:48pm Nov 9, 2013 5:48pm
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} I would short on the open if I were you (assuming no gap down) If there's a gap down, limit order at 1.6013 seems like a best bet to me. just my 2 cents.
No, it needs to go up first a little, either a gap up or push up after open.4H is oversold now.It needs a slight overbough around 1.6050 then down.Don't expect the real mark down to start before tuesday ny, possibly big boys will take the price back up and start the short from there.So If you manage to enter short and have profit, keep them and wait tuesday ny to push up and make an other short from there or just be prepared for a push up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd8.jpg Size: 262 KB
  • #352,559
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:53pm Nov 9, 2013 5:53pm
Quoting okanemici
{quote} No, it needs to go up first a little, either a gap up or push up after open.4H is oversold now.It needs a slight overbough around 1.6050 then down.Don't expect the real mark down to start before tuesday ny, possibly big boys will take the price back up and start the short from there.So If you manage to enter short and have profit, keep them and wait tuesday ny to push up and make an other short from there or just be prepared for a push up. {image}
Why do you think it needs to go up a little? Charts are showing it's on the edge of beginning down move, both GBP/USD and GBP/LFX show completed retracement patterns on Friday. Plenty of examples where price opens and heads straights down for the entire week!

I'm just saying this is likely to be one of them. Believe me or not it is up to you!
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  • #352,560
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:55pm Nov 9, 2013 5:55pm
Quoting Bones
yea cool , with gold now you might say tricky bull set up against bear ,in consolidation bear have tl confirmation, I see lower bear have monthly bear have most of the move seen on one day (Friday) {quote} {image} {image} {image}
Yes it is very bullish above 1.7260, that is for sure.I wouldnt call this tricky bull set up, because the picture is different in usdlfx now.If you remember I said it when it was 1.7266 and it dropped from 1.7266 ! Then after the data releases it shooted up above 1.7266 !
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