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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #352,521
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:38am Nov 9, 2013 5:38am
I hope you don't take wrong way ,but honestly I have pet hate for this kind of post ,also secret squirrel reasons ,
then to come back and say about fake new etc ,
sure at times it could b manipulated I guess but this can't be kept up ,as over a few months / year real results must show ...
with gold you have a very clear bearish monthly and previous week off falling tl ,


Quoting okanemici
Today is the day for big Gold Bull !!! Buy anything 1308-1318 for God's sake !
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #352,522
  • Nov 9, 2013 5:53am Nov 9, 2013 5:53am
Quoting Bones
I hope you don't take wrong way ,but honestly I have pet hate for this kind of post ,also secret squirrel reasons , then to come back and say about fake new etc , sure at times it could b manipulated I guess but this can't be kept up ,as over a few months / year real results must show ... with gold you have a very clear bearish monthly and previous week off falling tl , {quote}
Bones, I have read some of your posts and know how good you are at analysing the markets.

I am in the bearish camp as well but I need to warn that while USD seems to be starting the second leg up on its monthly chart. GBP also seems to be in the middle of a third wave on its monthly chart. I would love to count it as a zigzag but the leading diagonal in wave 1 followed by the deep retracement and the sharp acceleration of trend characteristic of a third wave just does not seem to support the bearish count.

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Furthermore, we broke a key resistance (2010 Aug Highs) on the GBP/LFX chart, only to reverse strongly the next month. I believe bears had their chance at that time to really take the pound down, but clearly bulls fought back and support held at the 100% fib extension level from the first leg up. We are now once again above that 2010 high and to me this is a danger sign that next week we could seriously rocket ship up on the pound as it continues its 3 of 3 advance.

However, as I say that, I still favour a more immediately bearish count because on the micro-level we seem to have completed an A-B-C retrace and formed a leading diagonal down. Whether or not this down move expands and begins a monthly trend change depends I think a lot on what happens in UK in the coming weeks and months.

Monthly chart:
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  • #352,523
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:10am Nov 9, 2013 6:10am
On the other hand,

here's some ammunition for the bears.

Self-explanatory.

Notice how similar these wave 1 and 2 are to the start of the 2008 financial crisis lol, so I suspect Britain might be heading for some sort of recession soon. We will know soon enough (Nov 13) if the data starts to turn sour...
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  • #352,524
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:13am Nov 9, 2013 6:13am
Quoting Bones
nice chart Nav omg how much data ?? (may 98) mine dose not go back that far {quote}

lol ..its a demo platform..i dont know why but there trendline seem to fit price better..thats why i use it as a reference
its crazy on my live account i cant get the same fit
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  • #352,525
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:28am Nov 9, 2013 6:28am
Quoting shellsnail
On the other hand, here's some ammunition for the bears. Self-explanatory. Notice how similar these wave 1 and 2 are to the start of the 2008 financial crisis lol, so I suspect Britain might be heading for some sort of recession soon. We will know soon enough (Nov 13) if the data starts to turn sour... {image}
I support your ideas on the monthly chart, but being a monthly chart it could take months of pullbacks and ranges before it continues on its way.
In the short/mid-term, I am very much biased to the downside and expect to see G/U pull back to at least 1.55xx to reach the measured target of the double top as illustrated in the daily chart below.
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As a side note, I see that your "Return By Trade" graph is painting a very nice cup and handle formation. This tells me you're in for a nice spike in your returns
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  • #352,526
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:31am Nov 9, 2013 6:31am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I support your ideas on the monthly chart, but being a monthly chart it could take months of pullbacks and ranges before it continues on its way. In the short/mid-term, I am very much biased to the downside and expect to see G/U pull back to at least 1.55xx to reach the measured target of the double top as illustrated in the daily chart below. {image} As a side note, I see that your "Return By Trade" graph is painting a very nice cup and handle formation. This tells me you're in for a nice spike in your returns {image}
yes, it could take ages. I have been mentally preparing myself for this trade and also revisiting my plan daily.

Short-term yes, downside definitely, but I am really looking at targets of 1.1x.

regarding the returns... hopefully. had a 2000% run in the last two weeks after something clicked.
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  • #352,527
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:46am Nov 9, 2013 6:46am
Quoting Bones
I hope you don't take wrong way ,but honestly I have pet hate for this kind of post ,also secret squirrel reasons , then to come back and say about fake new etc , sure at times it could b manipulated I guess but this can't be kept up ,as over a few months / year real results must show ... with gold you have a very clear bearish monthly and previous week off falling tl , {quote}
Sometimes people tend to fall in love with their positions, you might have a point.During the friday NFP just before the release although I figured gold is not going up anymore I was still wanting it to go up.I'll get better when I keep learning from my mistakes.

What do you say about the gbpusd 1.6045-50 sell limit ?
  • #352,528
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:47am Nov 9, 2013 6:47am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} yes, it could take ages. I have been mentally preparing myself for this trade and also revisiting my plan daily. Short-term yes, downside definitely, but I am really looking at targets of 1.1x. regarding the returns... hopefully. had a 2000% run in the last two weeks after something clicked.
1,1? Either you're really optimistic that the USD is going to overperform the entire currency system, or it's a typo, or you're referring to some other pairing

Regardless, here's my weekly EW count. My intermediate target is 1.55xx. What happens from there is when I can make a determination as to whether or not this count can be confirmed.
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #352,529
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:55am Nov 9, 2013 6:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} 1,1? Either you're really optimistic that the USD is going to overperform the entire currency system, or it's a typo, or you're referring to some other pairing Regardless, here's my weekly EW count. My intermediate target is 1.55xx. What happens from there is when I can make a determination as to whether or not this count can be confirmed. {image}
No typo there, have a plan in place to trade this. Plus I will know if I am wrong pretty soon because if I am then pound should spike up really fast over the next two weeks.

People often don't realise how powerful monthly trends can be but if you look at charts, selling and holding for 9 months can often give you 2000 pips easily.

Anyway, pound has the most potential because it is one of the most contrarian long term positions you can take without becoming a fool in the short-term. (tell me people will not scramble to buy when pound is at 1.5 again!?) This recent 8 month up move has made everyone bullish, crazy targets are appearing.
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  • #352,530
  • Nov 9, 2013 6:59am Nov 9, 2013 6:59am
Quoting shellsnail
{quote} No typo there, have a plan in place to trade this. Plus I will know if I am wrong pretty soon because if I am then pound should spike up really fast over the next two weeks. People often don't realise how powerful monthly trends can be but if you look at charts, selling and holding for 9 months can often give you 2000 pips easily.
You're preaching to the choir here.

Proof >>> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post6173182
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #352,531
  • Nov 9, 2013 7:03am Nov 9, 2013 7:03am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} You're preaching to the choir here. Proof >>> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post6173182
Nice
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  • #352,532
  • Edited 9:36am Nov 9, 2013 7:34am | Edited 9:36am
W/e review

The weekly candle closed with a bullish body that was bigger than it's upper (and lower wick) but the former was longer than the later. No fractal swing was created by this candle close and the t/f's general opa uptrend probably remains intact as of the weekly close. 100sma remains below 200sma on this t/f and price closed above both. Weekly pip range was 214 - 79% of 269pip 20 week atr and below last week's 299.

The daily candle on Friday closed almost as an inverse of the weekly candle close...ie it had a bearish body that was bigger than either wick and the lower wick was longer than the upper wick. The close confirms the 2nd fractal swing LH on this t/f in it's 6259-5893 opa range which persists. The 100sma remains above the 200 and price closed above both. Friday's pip range was 148 - 143% of the 103pip 20 day atr .

The 4hr too remains in a 6256-5209 opa range and only the 1hr could be just about said to be in a general opa downtrend although more like a U.s NFP react b/o of range bottom on that t/f at 6008 and a strong bounce back into that previous 6117-6008 opa range on that t/f off a Friday lo of 5956.

(key: opa = overall price action (classic fractal peak/valley analysis)

Summary

So, last week's greater probability of a downside follow thru on last week's weekly candle did not transpire this week (or at least hasn't yet as the hi of that candle remains intact. A deeper pullback did indeed occur off last week's low until Thursday of this week, then the react to U.s NFP sent the price lower. I said in last w/e review that if the greater probability (ie a downside flow thru on last week's bearish weekly candle) didn't play out then ranging was more likely than real upside progress and it looks as this is how the week has ended on the daily and 4hr t/f's in particular.

A tale of 2 trendlines this week : Thursday's 6117 high of the week (@ 61.8% 6246-5902 and a previous 4hr/minor daily swing lo zone - ie support became resistance) ) was at the underside of the previous daily/weekly ascending trendline (support became resistance) and the low of the week on Friday (5956) was at the newly established daily ascending trend line that joined that 4811 swing lo with this week's 5902 lo ...and a strong bounce up occurred from there- also there a previous 4hr swing lo zone.

Given the technical conditions on the t/f's 1hr to weekly as discussed above, I am less clear than others on this thread what the greater probability is for this coming week re near term direction in this pairing. Given what we know technically, I think it notionally favours generally more near-term downside. (The majority of this site's trade explorer's traders and lots traded would currently seem to support a bearish view - lol !) The HH on the daily at 6256 is now a LH on the weekly and in any event this HH on the daily was lower than the 6259 HH on same and weekly t/f and this supports the bears. Last week's big bearish weekly candle's hi has not been breeched and this too favours the bears. If not more downside then again generally ranging seems the 2nd most likely outcome near-term. The strong bounce up from the daily ascending trend line at Friday's lo will be of concern to less confident bears and price has yet to breech conclusively the 23.6% of the main 4811-6259 move, to the downside.

Fundamentally, Friday's stronger than expected NFP number makes so called 'Dectaper' a bigger (although still unlikely - at this stage,) possibility - this may drive $ strength still ? ...will be interesting to see any revisions to that number. In Uk we have Cpi / Rpi inflation numbers and Retail sales due this coming week and probably the known event risk of the week may be the Boe Qtrly inflation report and press conf where Carney may well indicate a tightening of forecasts re un-emp rate in the Boe's ' forward guidance ' plan....and such move may see some £ strength ? U.s Bank Hol on Monday (Veteran's day.)

Catch you next w/e.

G/L
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  • #352,533
  • Nov 9, 2013 9:02am Nov 9, 2013 9:02am
Quoting INvestME
Never really post on this site, but this is one solid trade as for so many more. My chart is of the GBPUSD. From this past weeks close, we received one of the most powerful signals in the market which is a Topping Tail providing us with a 2nd week of realization that the USD is still in FULL Control of this pair and many more. Since we are officially back below the 8-MA, then we can expect to play one of the most successful trading strategies which is the famous "Cone Trade." The completing of a move from the 8-MA to the 20-MA and possibly even...
great post! i'm short and looking to add all the way up to 1.6115 resistance for swing shorts
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  • #352,534
  • Nov 9, 2013 9:07am Nov 9, 2013 9:07am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} 1,1? Either you're really optimistic that the USD is going to overperform the entire currency system, or it's a typo, or you're referring to some other pairing Regardless, here's my weekly EW count. My intermediate target is 1.55xx. What happens from there is when I can make a determination as to whether or not this count can be confirmed. {image}
5 count valid by 1 pip... are you seeing this? Is it too sweet or what?
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Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #352,535
  • Nov 9, 2013 9:11am Nov 9, 2013 9:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I support your ideas on the monthly chart, but being a monthly chart it could take months of pullbacks and ranges before it continues on its way. In the short/mid-term, I am very much biased to the downside and expect to see G/U pull back to at least 1.55xx to reach the measured target of the double top as illustrated in the daily chart below. {image} As a side note, I see that your "Return By Trade" graph is painting a very nice cup and handle formation. This tells me you're in for a nice spike in your returns {image}
Something similar.
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  • #352,536
  • Nov 9, 2013 9:15am Nov 9, 2013 9:15am
Something different.
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #352,537
  • Nov 9, 2013 9:19am Nov 9, 2013 9:19am
Something to watch for.
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The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #352,538
  • Nov 9, 2013 1:54pm Nov 9, 2013 1:54pm
Currently reading Hedge Fund Wizards
came to this.

Jimmy Balodimas
Stepping in Front of Freight Trains
Jimmy Balodimas breaks all the rules. He sells into uptrends and buys into downtrends. He adds to losers and cuts his winners short. He is a predominant short in a market that is up the majority of days. By any of the standard guidelines for trading success, Balodimas shouldn’t survive in the markets, let alone thrive. Yet he is one of the most successful traders at First New York Securities, the prop trading firm at which he began his career 15 years ago, and he has never had a losing year.

and I thought something was wrong with me

Another theme repeatably comes out in the interviews about position size.
One should hold position in accordance to equity and in balance that fear does not dictate the judgement.
Greed factor.Losers only think about profits winners focus on risk.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #352,539
  • Nov 9, 2013 2:03pm Nov 9, 2013 2:03pm
Just looked at FF Trade Explorer and saw that majority of traders have been short since July!?
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  • #352,540
  • Edited 2:29pm Nov 9, 2013 2:11pm | Edited 2:29pm
Quoting Davit
Currently reading Hedge Fund Wizards came to this. Jimmy Balodimas Stepping in Front of Freight Trains Jimmy Balodimas breaks all the rules. He sells into uptrends and buys into downtrends. He adds to losers and cuts his winners short. He is a predominant short in a market that is up the majority of days. By any of the standard guidelines for trading success, Balodimas shouldn’t survive in the markets, let alone thrive. Yet he is one of the most successful traders at First New York Securities, the prop trading firm at which he began his career 15...
nothing wrong with you at all. I do the same. The key is position size. Also do not do pyramiding. Add to losers at about the same price distance with the same position size, do not add increased size. When price retrace, reduce position size and load back later when price goes against you again. Tabulate and calculate everything (trades, average price) in excel. The key is position size so you do not go broke if the market go against you too much. Market eventually will go your way.

TauTrader largely uses this strategy to trade. His account (even if it is demo) keeps growing steadily.

I do not think this way of trading is much different from the way some people use high leverage and stoploss. In a long run it is about the same. Stoplosses accumulate.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
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