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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #39,061
  • Nov 8, 2013 7:54am Nov 8, 2013 7:54am
Quoting DingDongWay
{quote} I think it might get pass that in my view....

As the saying goes don't count your chicks before they are hatched it hasn't even crossed the 99.
  • #39,062
  • Nov 8, 2013 7:55am Nov 8, 2013 7:55am
Quoting forex_fairy
you need a crystal ball or a pool of blood to look into.
Its just that 98,8 combined with major money injection from ECB. 98,8 is a centre of whole that monthly trianguloid consolidation. There are many institutional orders stacked @ this number.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #39,063
  • Nov 8, 2013 7:56am Nov 8, 2013 7:56am
i can only respond to this with swearing words. regardless, i got slapped and made 15% loss even though i caught up a bit tonight.

now i struggle whether to continue or not. i always know i end up losing if i try too hard.
  • #39,064
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:01am Nov 8, 2013 8:01am
battle of bulls and bears continue...
  • #39,065
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:03am Nov 8, 2013 8:03am
Added to longs on that dip into the 50s
Twitter: @TrendersGame
  • #39,066
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:04am Nov 8, 2013 8:04am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Its just that 98,8 combined with major money injection from ECB. 98,8 is a centre of whole that monthly trianguloid consolidation. There are many institutional orders stacked @ this number. {image}

Ok but the more important question is will it shoot upwards or go downwards fast like yesterday. That's why there aren't any guarantees regardless of the method one uses to look at the charts and the only guarantee a person has when trading is that he WILL lose money. The only way to win is to try to cut his losses to a minimal and to avoid bad trades and take good trades. Much much easier said than done and one must be able to handle the only guarantee when he trades fx is that he will definitely lose and how he handles that loss is the most important factor of all.

Suffice to say using a crystal ball especially when doing short term trading this pair isn't outrageous at all and sounds perfectly as feasible as using some charts or stats or graphs or candlestick charting for example.


edit as i was typing this it went downwards for a while and shot upwards again. Wish someone with a crystal ball would come in to give advice.
  • #39,067
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:05am Nov 8, 2013 8:05am
Quoting nisack
i can only respond to this with swearing words. regardless, i got slapped and made 15% loss even though i caught up a bit tonight. now i struggle whether to continue or not. i always know i end up losing if i try too hard.
Dude, my heart goes out to you...

i have stayed out of this event. Have expected it to shoot up cos they need good data to path the way for tapering.

i expecting it to raise next week....good luck to all.
  • #39,068
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:05am Nov 8, 2013 8:05am
Quoting nisack
now i struggle whether to continue or not.
I almost got heartattack yesterday. I consider myself very tough guy able to survive any conditions. Lost about 35% (floating, luckily) and it hurts me a bit, not much, but still . Just take a break, brain needs to rest, go outside on fresh air, visit your family, screw those charts.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #39,069
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:07am Nov 8, 2013 8:07am
Quoting forex_fairy
{quote} As the saying goes don't count your chicks before they are hatched it hasn't even crossed the 99.
Viewing from a technical aspect, im already counting.. Adding on, i've been counting @ 100.45 104 since the 95 96 +
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
  • #39,070
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:09am Nov 8, 2013 8:09am
Quoting DingDongWay
{quote} Viewing from a technical aspect, im already counting.. Adding on, i've been counting @ 100.45 104 since the 95 96 +
But nevertheless if you're saying about this current move, i might be wrong too .

Do hope so...
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
  • #39,071
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:09am Nov 8, 2013 8:09am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} I almost got heartattack yesterday. I consider myself very tough guy able to survive any conditions. Lost about 35% (floating, luckily) and it hurts me a bit, not much, but still . Just take a break, brain needs to rest, go outside on fresh air, visit your family, screw those charts.
exactly what i did today - enjoy time with family, but sure as hell i had a tough night sleeping. the emotion and greed is the part i can't get pass. it's like a voice telling me that if i miss this chance i will never be able to catch up. i know this may sound silly.

btw, do we know what was wrong with yen yesterday? just some safe heaven moves? if it wasn't that, we are really at our 100 now.
  • #39,072
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:10am Nov 8, 2013 8:10am
I'm going short here at 9871. Stops at 99.

Looking for 9790.

I think the sharemarket has entered a corrective phase, which is yen bullish.
  • #39,073
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:10am Nov 8, 2013 8:10am
by the way, if you guys look at the hourly, does it look to you like we are going mirror what happened last night except going back up?
  • #39,074
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:12am Nov 8, 2013 8:12am
Bull breather right here around 98.70. soon well be heading towards 100
The Meek Shall Inherit The Earth...
  • #39,075
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:15am Nov 8, 2013 8:15am
Quoting forex_fairy
Ok but the more important question is will it shoot upwards or go downwards fast like yesterday..
Well that was very novice post, dunno, would be elaborating it for like an hour. This aint FX school, so am going to exagerrate the post to the extreme just to give a point. You cant say they aint variables affecting pair to go up and it is random.
UJ long term (6+ months) - Trade Balance, Monetary base, Demographics, Politics
UJ mid term (3-6 months) - Stock market, commodities, Bonds, Institutional hedges
Short term (0-3) - Stock market, commodities, Bonds, Institutional hedges, Retailers, HFT systems.

Its just many and many, its like a butterfly effect, economy is very complex science. The more you zoom into charts, the more effect of short term systems, which are more volatile, the more long term, the more fundamental move makes sence. Right now am saying you, 98,8 is place for all those hedge funds, institutions and banks to place their bids for long term trend, because it is mid of this facking trianguloid. So, place to make a huge position and ride for half a year. Combine it with fact we got major money injection from ECB and you got this whipsaw.
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #39,076
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:16am Nov 8, 2013 8:16am
Quoting DingDongWay
{quote} Viewing from a technical aspect, im already counting.. Adding on, i've been counting @ 100.45 104 since the 95 96 +
Quoting DingDongWay
{quote} But nevertheless if you're saying about this current move, i might be wrong too . Do hope so...

Yup that's right end of the day we need to use our crystal balls.



Quoting pbtec
I'm going short here at 9871. Stops at 99. Looking for 9790. I think the sharemarket has entered a corrective phase, which is yen bullish.

I just feel that you are correct. This damn pair hardly has any strong bullish movements anymore. Any large bullish movement later procceds with any even stronger bearish move.
  • #39,077
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:16am Nov 8, 2013 8:16am
98.900 is the upper limit for closing today... but still there is road ahead... more news to come more votality to see...
The good thing with the future is that it is progressively approaching...
  • #39,078
  • Edited 8:18am Nov 8, 2013 8:17am | Edited 8:18am
When you compare the daily candles of /ES to U/J, its not surprising to see what effect the jobs report had on each of them. U/J had long lower wick = at least some buyers left. /ES closed at the lows = very few buyers left. Perfect example of how price action knows best (its almost like someone is trading the numbers before they come out).

Bear follow through in /ES after the report has been non-existent, but we've still got the entire session to go.

I'm staying away from U/J. Just too choppy, not even worth trading. E/U & A/U shorts look much more clear. Maybe bulls grind this pair up @ close the monthly candle around 99.50-100, then I'd step in and participate again. I'm not going to predict, just follow.
Twitter: @zusch_ -- Preselecting trending pairs, stocks on a weekly basis.
  • #39,079
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:19am Nov 8, 2013 8:19am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Well that was very novice post, dunno, would be elaborating it for like an hour. This aint FX school, so am going to exagerrate the post to the extreme just to give a point. You cant say they aint variables affecting pair to go up and it is random. UJ long term (6+ months) - Trade Balance, Monetary base, Demographics, Politics UJ mid term (3-6 months) - Stock market, commodities, Bonds, Institutional hedges Short term (0-3) - Stock market, commodities, Bonds, Institutional hedges, Retailers, HFT systems. Its just many and many, its like...
well said. IF in event you got yourself a favorable position, why get out, and looking at medium long term, let it ride and stacks trades instead of closing on the ones that are favorable.

On another part its a more of a hassle to find a gd entry and once you get in, you let it ride instead of closing on them which resulting in choosing to 'search' for another favorable entry which might not be favorable. If you choose to hedge it might be a gd move, but closing on the favorable long term trending, aint a gd move..

Just my two cents worth ....
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
  • #39,080
  • Nov 8, 2013 8:20am Nov 8, 2013 8:20am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Well that was very novice post, dunno, would be elaborating it for like an hour. This aint FX school, so am going to exagerrate the post to the extreme just to give a point. You cant say they aint variables affecting pair to go up and it is random. UJ long term (6+ months) - Trade Balance, Monetary base, Demographics, Politics UJ mid term (3-6 months) - Stock market, commodities, Bonds, Institutional hedges Short term (0-3) - Stock market, commodities, Bonds, Institutional hedges, Retailers, HFT systems. Its just many and many, its like...

Well yes my post sounds kind of novice and should be common sense for any fx trader but seriously honestly speaking many traders even those with years of experience probably don't follow the rules at all.


Your post here on the markets and all sound interesting but i don't know at the end of the day you're making an educated guess. You cannot guarantee anything at all that is why i am sure you have your SL all in place and that was why i brought up the fortune telling aspect cos if you think about it sometimes there really isn't any difference at all in a fortune teller predicting the movement in this pair and someone that uses tehnical/fundamental analysis.
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