EURUSD

Love you

Hey, I resemble that comment!

Good read. Thanks.

I do calculate them via Excel

I never was satisfied with the MT4 ones. Many of the MT4 ones simply froze my system, since I need the profiles on MTF

talk about market equilibrium, hopes rise #audusd

See if Sierra Charts (http://www.sierrachart.com/) can be used as a front end of your platform for your broker.
I use Sierra Charts as the front end to TWS of Interactive Brokers.

I researched on many charting and trading packages, I like sierra charts the most. I also like ThinkorSwim.

Watching .9380

so far? I will add each -100 pips

When ever you pull out a YouTube song, i wonder... Did he just googled that?? but nah you know all / some of this songs lol nice

bbl.. i could b.e. my scalp.. oh well.. i could live with the loss..

EOD update from Citi

USD fans cheered on the Chicago Bulls Thursday following a blockbuster PMI print of 65.9 versus 55.0 expected. That equates to an improvement from 54.0 to 60.7 on an ISM-weighted basis.

· However, USD gains weren’t uniform. Weakness in the EUR, the Scandis and emerging market currencies stood out particularly, while CAD, JPY, GBP and NZD either rallied or simply held in.

· CitiFX Strategy says that the bottom line is that investors are unlikely to establish large USD long positions, but with FOMC and data uncertainty they can no longer be as underweight.

· Turnover was exceptionally high on our platforms, with the EUR, rather than JPY, earning top ranks for the most actively traded currency. There was less mention of month-end flow than usual as the market remained focused on what the Fed will or will not do.

· Share your opinion by voting in our latest tapering poll, started after the Fed statement here.

· Our flows in EURUSD were biased slightly in favor of selling in early Europe, but once the sell-off towards the 1.3650 support area got momentum on Chicago PMI data, we saw bank names leading the charge to buy dips towards (and somewhat) below the 1.3600 figure.

· The pair is now testing 1.3580 but could still go lower. CitiFX Techs warns that there are no meaningful levels below here until the 1.3452/72 area with rising trend line coming in at 1.3428.

· Furthermore, the relative curve spread between Germany and the US has taken out converged horizontal and trend line support levels and is moving down in favour of the USD. When overlaid with EURUSD, it suggests the pair should be trading around 1.34.

· EUR weakness was also extended to the crosses, likely reflecting a number of factors.

· Following German and Spanish data, Eurozone flash CPI came in softer than expected at +0.7%. Inevitably, this encouraged debate as to if the ECB should cut rates. One major Street Economist said yes, changing its forecast from a hold at next week’s meeting to a 25bps rate cut.

· Other discussions from this week were also revisited: if long EUR positioning is too overstretched and how its recent rally has may be eroding the earnings of major European companies.

· EURGBP was also among the EUR crosses that had a sharp reversal. After a slow start, turnover picked up and we saw clear selling of the cross on our platforms. At one point, our flow had a massive 64% bias in favor of the downside.

· Leveraged names were particularly active, with real money not too far behind. The cross has settled below the 38.2% retracement of the rally from 0.8333 to 0.8585, around 0.8490.

· The moves in spot also brought increased demand for options - we saw vols substantially better bid across EURUSD, USDCHF, GBPUSD and EURGBP for both gamma and vega contracts. The EURUSD vol curve is higher by close to 0.4 vols from 1m to 1y compared with the start of the trading day in London.

· We also saw strong demand for EUR puts in EURUSD both from clients and on the CME, which has pushed risk reversals better bid for puts. 1m EURUSD RR were trading close to flat less than a week ago and are now trading around 0.6 for EUR puts.

· As for USDJPY, it did not move much but seems supported. Reaction to the Chicago PMI was just 20pips towards early European highs of 98.40/50 but importantly, despite some hefty supply into the European close it held key support in the 98.10 area.

· Further support extends towards 97.80 going into high event risk Friday. This includes China PMI, US ISM and the start of Fedspeak, with Bullard due at 9:10 EST/13:10 London time.

· Sellers of AUDUSD were well noted following PMI, managing to drag the pair down from the 0.9510 area towards 0.9450. Key support ahead stands at 0.9440/50, which is where the pair is currently testing.

· It’s also worth noting what went through in AUDJPY. Our flow had a skew in favor of buying until around 13:00 London time, when strong selling emerged. On the day, retail names remained net buyers. It will be interesting to see how this segment reacts Friday. AUDJPY is now trading below 93.00. The 61.8% retracement of the recent move from 92.67 to 93.61 came in at 93.03.

· As a note on GBP, BoE member Weale threw more cold water on the so-called “forward guidance.” Weale highlighted that the BoE’s forecasts for unemployment have been wrong in the past and could be wrong again.

· Norges Bank surprised the market by announcing it wouldn’t buy any foreign currency in November.

· Canadian August real GDP gave CAD a boost, rising +0.3% MoM - the forecast was for 0.1% according to Bloomberg. USDCAD initially dipped from 1.0460 on the back of this, quickly testing the 1.0440/20 support area. After a low of 1.0412, it has settled near 1.0430.



EM in Focus

· Some weekend squaring pushed EURPLN above 4.1800; obviously the Street sought some liquidity before a long weekend holiday in Poland.

· USDPLN appeared to be the main trigger and seems to still haves some upside potential. Local corporates have been happy to buy cross below 3.0300 for last couple of days, while offshore names remain bullish PLN and very bearish USD.

· It was a similar story for EURHUF and USDHUF, with Hungary taking local holidays Friday. We saw local interest on the bid in the cross and some stops on the way up.

· Techs has gone long USDHUF at 217.53 with an initial target of 230. The stop loss is at 210.

· Unexpectedly, Turkey CB Governor Basci signaled further monetary tightening, sending TRY spot and rates markets running wild. Bottom line: the cash liquidity is getting tighter and tighter, banks are trying to pay rates, customers are also trying to get some DV01 in and the market is not deep enough to accommodate the sudden demand. It looks like we will adjust a few spreads higher over next days or weeks.

· Egypt CB held rates as expected. O/N borrowing and lending rates stayed at 8.75% and 9.75% respectively. The one week repo rate is 9.25%.

· With today's large move up in USDBRL FX and vols, our NY trader notes that it is worth reflecting on how similar this situation is to Q4 of 2012. The BCB, now as then, has been intervening steadily to contain the FX vol, and lulled the market into taking advantage of this by buying DNT's as a levered play on this artificially low realized vol.

· But there's no such thing as a free lunch as we have seen. The BCB left just under 3bn USD unrolled for Thursday's fix to contain any overshot move in the USD to the downside, the market got caught short USD's and gamma.

· With the topside barriers for all these DNT's approaching, and the market getting shorter gamma with every tick higher in spot, will this be a repeat of last year where all the barriers go in swift gapping moves up? It certainly seems like we are on that path.

· USDKRW managed to print a m.a.r. rate sub 1060 at 1059.9 Thursday and ironically it was the day it was squeezed the most. Exporters sold a lot of USD into month-end and we also saw a lot fast money type names passing higher in 1m USDKW.

· 1m USDINR gapped higher on light volume from 62.30 level up to 62.80 in New York afternoon.

· “Key to watch tomorrow how China rates behave in the new month, with expectations being that the tax related and month end squeeze in cash rates should be over,” says our London trader.

· “Then we get China PMI, which is expected to improve mildly by 0.1 from last month to 51.20. A low print will likely lead to another round of USDAsia short covering.”

i have heard them all hundreds of times.

you made enough from this down move already.

No idea.

Waiting for this:

I think it started to recover for eur usd

toss a coin. which way it will move big?

I was a little bit ahead of you on this one G.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...47443&page=922

Good times, all the same!

I like to know how?, if you could spare some time whenever you can?. Tnx in advance
Avir