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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #38,641
  • Oct 30, 2013 11:04am Oct 30, 2013 11:04am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
What do you think of Japan trade balance kweiss?
not really sure myself
  • #38,642
  • Oct 30, 2013 11:54am Oct 30, 2013 11:54am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} No its not.... {image}
hey jeremey, sorry mate but i didnt like your "no its not"

seems u dont have proper understanding of macro principles and.. i said yield "DIFFERENTIAL"

USD/JPY will correlate with yield differential that is US2Y-JPY2Y

its silly to just look at something which is relative, USD/JPY ie value of US dolalr vs japanese Yen versus something absolute ie in your chart only JPY yield

plot yield differentials ie US yield -Japan yield vs CCY and this principle is true for all ccy pairs..

currency is interest rate... i wont go into more details
  • #38,643
  • Oct 30, 2013 11:58am Oct 30, 2013 11:58am
Quoting akki300986
{quote} hey jeremey, sorry mate but i didnt like your \"no its not\" seems u dont have proper understanding of macro principles and.. i said yield \"DIFFERENTIAL\" USD/JPY will correlate with yield differential that is US2Y-JPY2Y its silly to just look at something which is relative, USD/JPY ie value of US dolalr vs japanese Yen versus something absolute ie in your chart only JPY yield plot yield differentials ie US yield -Japan yield vs CCY and this principle is true for all ccy pairs.. currency is interest rate... i wont go into more details
well you are correct for all pairs expect the USDJPY

for example the EURUSD you would have DE-US 2 year spread. GBPUSD - GB-US 2 year spread

but for USDJPY, you don't use the short end of the curve, you use the 10's.

This is because the JGB short end does fuck all and 10's most sensitive to econ data as is USDJPY

But as you asked here is the differential vs USDJPY. see the correlation. me neither
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JP 2 spread.png Size: 119 KB
  • #38,644
  • Oct 30, 2013 12:25pm Oct 30, 2013 12:25pm
After the FOMC meeting the usd/jpy will go sout or north? i simply canot see the right answer,thats whei i ask you guys
  • #38,645
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:25pm Oct 30, 2013 1:25pm
UJ toward upper exit of the W triangle. Nice drive so far.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #38,646
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:26pm Oct 30, 2013 1:26pm
Quoting bikov
UJ toward upper exit of the W triangle. Nice drive so far.
In my view we might be seeing 100/101 in Nov if this trend goes on....
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
  • #38,647
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:30pm Oct 30, 2013 1:30pm
Quoting DingDongWay
{quote} In my view we might be seeing 100/101 in Nov if this trend goes on....

I think we see a usd rally into 2014 still holding my UJ longs from 99.14 and not letting go
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  • #38,648
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:33pm Oct 30, 2013 1:33pm
Quoting BobGnarly
{quote} I think we see a usd rally into 2014 still holding my UJ longs from 99.14 and not letting go
Yep... as mentioned in earlier postings, im targeting 104.45 for 1st primary target.... till then if no significant news coming, i will slowly shift my SL alongs..

Higher extremes are like 110/118....
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
  • #38,649
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:34pm Oct 30, 2013 1:34pm
So what is the direction now? Will it stop at 98.60 or go on?
  • #38,650
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:35pm Oct 30, 2013 1:35pm
Holding UJ longs and scalping other pairs would save the day (year). My cable shorts are doing fine, also. US10y t-notes rejected from 128 to 127.45 now. I hope all this stays in this way.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #38,651
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:38pm Oct 30, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting mm2mm
So what is the direction now? Will it stop at 98.60 or go on?

That would be great if we close near or above 99.00 today
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #38,652
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:41pm Oct 30, 2013 1:41pm
Doesn't look like it has enough power to do that today
  • #38,653
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:44pm Oct 30, 2013 1:44pm
Quoting maximinus
{quote} That would be great if we close near or above 99.00 today
Same sentiments.... if its able to break 98.6 area... in my view a 99/99.3 area is a possible for this week.... if not, we might head back at 98.4 area....
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
  • #38,654
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:45pm Oct 30, 2013 1:45pm
Quoting mm2mm
Doesn't look like it has enough power to do that today
Yep, you are right; it doesn't look like but we have still 3 hours left and tomorrow we have JPY monetary policy statement. Patience.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #38,655
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:48pm Oct 30, 2013 1:48pm
I'm very, very, very glad I've been buying the dips and will continue to do so.
"A true speculator tries the market small." - Jesse Livermore
  • #38,656
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:49pm Oct 30, 2013 1:49pm
Quoting DingDongWay
{quote} Same sentiments.... if its able to break 98.6 area... in my view a 99/99.3 area is a possible for this week.... if not, we might head back at 98.4 area....
You got it. Happy ? ;-)
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #38,657
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:51pm Oct 30, 2013 1:51pm
Quoting Even-on-Ten
will try some shorts at 98.14, and risk 20 pips...
minus 20
Enter Signature
  • #38,658
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:53pm Oct 30, 2013 1:53pm
Quoting Even-on-Ten
{quote} minus 20
I had same trade as you with same sl

I never got in the bull train however
  • #38,659
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:54pm Oct 30, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting maximinus
{quote} You got it. Happy ? ;-)
Not yet.... Worried..
Sincerely Yours Cheers!
  • #38,660
  • Oct 30, 2013 1:57pm Oct 30, 2013 1:57pm
Quoting DingDongWay
{quote} Not yet.... Worried..

I'm worried also, but not enough to get out of my trade.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
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