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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #38,621
  • Oct 30, 2013 6:33am Oct 30, 2013 6:33am
thanks Kweiss10. Just to confirm does the expiry happen around 10am est?
  • #38,622
  • Oct 30, 2013 6:43am Oct 30, 2013 6:43am
Quoting bulltrader13
thanks Kweiss10. Just to confirm does the expiry happen around 10am est?
was a real question mate, no offence sorry if it looked alike
  • #38,623
  • Oct 30, 2013 6:56am Oct 30, 2013 6:56am
Quoting pipxster
{quote} was a real question mate, no offence sorry if it looked alike
not offended at all. dunno when it expires
  • #38,624
  • Oct 30, 2013 7:12am Oct 30, 2013 7:12am
Quoting pipxster
{quote} Do you think that before tomorrows BOJ (statement, presscon) events market will drop massively as they might start to further communicate the extension of the stimulus...?

If I were to guess I would guess we would see a small drop followed by a big spike up. My $.02.. Could be wrong
  • #38,625
  • Oct 30, 2013 7:25am Oct 30, 2013 7:25am
Quoting kweiss10
{quote} be very careful. Fed expected to keep QE which usually means drops in USD. BUT we always have buy on rumor sell on fact.
Agree. Good tip
  • #38,626
  • Oct 30, 2013 7:35am Oct 30, 2013 7:35am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} If I were to guess I would guess we would see a small drop followed by a big spike up. My $.02.. Could be wrong
Just had some less-than-wonderful numbers from ADP and CPI. Now we shall see whether the accompanying droop is set into the market.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #38,627
  • Oct 30, 2013 7:52am Oct 30, 2013 7:52am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Just had some less-than-wonderful numbers from ADP and CPI. Now we shall see whether the accompanying droop is set into the market.
At least I got that drop and bounce right lol..
  • #38,628
  • Oct 30, 2013 9:04am Oct 30, 2013 9:04am
again bad us number but market is still not moving and us hold movement what going on with fundamentals
  • #38,629
  • Oct 30, 2013 9:17am Oct 30, 2013 9:17am
i was expected that some dive but market is still look bullish after 7 bad news but US is still strong enough
  • #38,630
  • Oct 30, 2013 9:41am Oct 30, 2013 9:41am
I think it will fall.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cT_cs_1001686_USDJPY_2013-10-30_15-36-17.png Size: 96 KB
  • #38,631
  • Oct 30, 2013 9:52am Oct 30, 2013 9:52am
divergence between yields and USDJPY
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Yields vs USDJPY.png Size: 102 KB
  • #38,632
  • Oct 30, 2013 10:04am Oct 30, 2013 10:04am
Sold my 97.06 long at 98.25.....

Waiting for FOMC minutes and I expect initial reaction for a drop in USD. I'll use this an opportunity to pick up new longs. Set a buy order at 97.55 and another at 97.05.....

Good luck to all...
  • #38,633
  • Oct 30, 2013 10:10am Oct 30, 2013 10:10am
Quoting JeremyWS
divergence between yields and USDJPY {image}

US10y t-note is still under 128 resistance, if price fails here there goes the yields up. But IF fails. I say 128 because today there were several attempts for breaking it up.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #38,634
  • Oct 30, 2013 10:35am Oct 30, 2013 10:35am
Quoting JeremyWS
divergence between yields and USDJPY {image}
Man, could you please post like a daily chart of JGB 10Y vs UJ since Kuroda san and Abe san took over? That was like 09/2012. Would be very appreciated.
Why I want this, is that I think this move in UJ is caused more by Yen side, than the USD.
Thx,
T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #38,635
  • Oct 30, 2013 10:36am Oct 30, 2013 10:36am
this up move of UJ is very artificial. people are holding high before FOMC later on. but sooner or later, it will pop if not today.
  • #38,636
  • Oct 30, 2013 10:38am Oct 30, 2013 10:38am
What do you think of Japan trade balance kweiss?
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #38,637
  • Oct 30, 2013 10:38am Oct 30, 2013 10:38am
Quoting JeremyWS
divergence between yields and USDJPY {image}
ccy is more linked with 2 year rate differentials and not 10 years

reaosn being, 10 year yields is more macro and growth driven and is not effected by sudden shocks as well as other short term things

to say in a simple term its the short end of the curve which is more correlated with the spot ccy...
  • #38,638
  • Oct 30, 2013 10:39am Oct 30, 2013 10:39am
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} Man, could you please post like a daily chart of JGB 10Y vs UJ since Kuroda san and Abe san took over? That was like 09/2012. Would be very appreciated. Why I want this, is that I think this move in UJ is caused more by Yen side, than the USD. Thx, T
JGB 10 year (white RHS) vs. USDJPY

I think that most of the big ramp up was definitely Japan related but JGB's only had about a month of wild swings then pretty much nothing expect for yields going to 0 again...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JGB vs USJPY.png Size: 138 KB
  • #38,639
  • Oct 30, 2013 10:40am Oct 30, 2013 10:40am
Quoting akki300986
{quote} ccy is more linked with 2 year rate differentials and not 10 years reaosn being, 10 year yields is more macro and growth driven and is not effected by sudden shocks as well as other short term things to say in a simple term its the short end of the curve which is more correlated with the spot ccy...
No its not....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JPY vs 2 year spread.png Size: 101 KB
  • #38,640
  • Oct 30, 2013 10:43am Oct 30, 2013 10:43am
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} JGB 10 year
Lol, what a picture. Wonder if I should leverage my wife, so I could buy more . Thanks a lot man.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
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