Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Only 17 pips so far, come on we can do better than that. Lets have some real panic and the full 30pips

Panic levels at “Irritated” may be raised to “slightly worried”.

I'm all set for FOMC to go either way.

I have covered all my "in the money" E/U & G/U positions as well as a couple of U/W ones which still avg me out in the green.
I have set my numerous AUD/NZD longs at BE+50 except for the one at 1.1515 which is set to SL at 1.1385
My EUR/AUD short from 1.4489 has an SL at 1.4535
The only ones floating without SL are my SPX500 shorts which are 1766.6, 1692.4, 1660.0 & 1642.9 with an avg at 1690.3

Now if the market goes all apeshit on risk appetite and send the Dollar to hell, I'll suffer some losses but come out unscathed.
If on the other hand the market does not think that the Fed is any more dovish than last time, or if they are less dovish, then all my existing positions move clearly into profit and I laugh all the way to the bank.

Some may call this a gamble, but I assure you it is not.

Why?
Because all risk currencies and equity indices are overbought and the dollar is oversold. So, unless the FOMC makes it very clear that they will keep their pedal to the metal for a specified period of time past March 2014, upside in risk will be very limited if there is any upside at all.

The alternative possibilities (out of the most probable) are as follows...
1. Fed announces that any future taper will be tied to data on a month by month basis. In that case there is still a chance for taper to start in December. (USD Bullish)
2. Fed announces that they will make an economic assessment regarding tapering when they release new projections in December (USD neutral to slightly bullish)
3. Fed announces that they may start tapering anywhere between January and March 2014 (USD neutral)
4. Fed announces that tapering will not even be considered until the fiscal issues in DC are fully resolved. (USD Bearish)
5. Fed makes absolutely no mention of taper and basically issue the same standard statement that they will increase/decrease asset purchases as required (USD neutral to bearish)
6. If the Fed changes the goal posts, as in that they introduce new or modified data targets, then that could throw a wrench in the works as the market digests the consequences of such change. At that point it's anybody's guess.

The above is based on the following assumptions.
1. The market has already mostly priced in the expectation that the Fed will not start tapering until April 2014.
2. The market has already priced in the current underperformance of EZ and UK econ data.
3. The Fed statement does not make any extremely dovish or hawkish statements regarding the US economy as compared to previous statements.

In case the above assumptions are off, then the projected outcomes of each scenario I mentioned above has to be adjusted up or down accordingly.

I don't have a crystal ball, so anything can happen. However, this is how I see it. This analysis is not meant as a signal on how to trade the FOMC release. It is only my opinion and I am sharing it as an opinion only.

Keep in mind also that tomorrow is month end, and the way the USD has been bashed in the last 40 days may actually produce month end flows back into USD. However, come Friday, month end won't play into the equation any more and it's back to business as usual with flows according to the outcome/contents of the FOMC statement. It could also be argued that month end flows too place yesterday and today in order to get them all squared off before the FOMC statement.

So buckle up your seatbelts. This could be a rough ride, but then again it could turn out to be a non-event. Only Benny and the boys know for sure at this time.

Best of luck.

Good day,

trading is hard..

I'm scalping long. Will walk away with burger money..

regards

ok let see what will be..15/30 min

GL all and drive safetly

Burger money is a good thing!

Let the Games commence !

G/L

taper or no taper. taper or no.
"fed's security tighten", "inflation vs deflation", "the elite&rich vs deflation", "gold price stands as hedge against inflation".

these seems to add up. lol.
fed pls continue to feed the rich. regards.

Yip. Banked 4 cheese burgers

Now flat.

I dunno what minutes say yet, but damn we jumped all over the place and are still heading down strong at the moment.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev.../20131030a.htm

bounced at yesterday's lo zone/asc daily/weekly t/line

volatile react so far- 2 way action

G/L

Fed statement was hawkish for the US economy.
Therefore, it's good for Equities but also good for USD.
Good for USD for two reasons.
1. Better US growth
2. Higher chance of taper before April 2014

Equities are due for a correction though, so it's touch and go there.

Now we see what happens with month end flows.

$40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. Taken together, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

So: nothing...

Going as it should

The Fed said continue short....

G/N... I''ll be back to trade tomorrow... 1.6 looking good



G/L

Or better, taking out yesterday's low

Hope it holds below 30 on this 15m candle.

lets all go out for a beer now, a bear party. lets meet half way in China or something for that beer

4 hr is now piercing the 200 EMA