Circular Trendlines

Update:

EUR/USD Outlook

After the quick rise on Wednesday, hesitation around the 3500 zone is creating the stage for a strong turn around on this pair. A 3 sectional move from the low of 2750 that started from July 14th is almost complete.

very good analyze bro. keep it up .

EUR/USD Outlook

There is not a lot of clues at the moment on the higher time frames to see what this pair is intending to do after 1 week of reaching 3560. The only viable sign right now is a drop to 3430 hitting the perimeter of the blue circle/T1 line. False breaks of the blue circle till 3520-3530 is allowed, but not more than that in this model.

More hesitation will only increase the potential energy for a drop downwards.

Thanks Kambooj.

Is the first analysis' 1.2900 still intact you think? Looks quite likely to me unless this post now supersedes it?

Best regards,

No its still 2900, definetly a come back to 3000 is in the works of this pair. So far the scenario is looking like May 4 2011, where a strong drop was observed shortly after a strong surge upwards.

Update

EUR/USD Outlook
A possible slow but gradual shift in direction is about to happen in the days to come.
Here are the details from a time line perspective...

EUR/USD Outlook

Monthly
The most important area on this chart is the juction of the 3 blue, red and black circles. This is a area of high importance that will be touched in the next couple of years, which is roughly close to the end of 2014, around Nov/Dec of 2014. For the meanwhile the Grey Zone of the blue circle has caused some real agitation since May of 2013 and will continue to do so with few more bounces yet to come from the area of 2750-3000. The two circles Circle#1 and Circle#2 are the outmost regions of resistance for the movement at the moment and as time goes on the steepness of the resistance areas will increase. This will bring about a strong thrust downwards that will clear the Grey Zone of the blue circle for some time to come and put this pair in the 1.07 to 1.10 zone before any strong attempts are made to push this pair up to the 4500-5000 level again


Weekly
Many believe on this time frame that he EUR will continue to go up to at least the 1.382 or 1.618 price extension of the move from 2000-3700. Unfortunately drawing circles around the resistance spots only shows that price action is trying to penetrate through the south pole of such circle. There are a variety of ways that you can draw circles along the resistance zones that started from November of 2009 onwards. But pretty much the more that you draw these circles the more it is evident that price action is within the vicinity of the south poles of these circles. So in esence its trying to penetrate through one of the hardest zones of a circle. Such movement requires tremendous spikes and persistance which is lacking in the current scenario. From September 6th till now we have only been able to make about a 600 pip movement. The movement that needs to break the pole of a circle and be categoried as a decisive move, should at least travel 20% of the diameter of the circle in a very short period of time. 20% of the diameter of the circle is usually around the 4200-4300 zone. So the lack of such movement is only indication of false breaks and temporary highs that are only there sporadically and lack the necessary sustenance that is required to create a strong base for the next few years to come. Some examples of zones where a strong base has been established for a strong upward trend was the low of 1625 on November of 2005 and the low of 2450 on March of 2009. Both of these moves generated thrusts that at a minimum travelled 3000 pips to a maximum of 4500 pips in a very short period of time. We have been stuck in a 1500 pip range from End of July 2012 till now. Definetly these kind of moves are spending too much time in trying to make more head ways upwards. We have had so far one strong rejection on February of 2013 off the 3700 zone, and we are yet to see whether we will make a strong break upwards. In my humble opinion I dont think that we are going to make much headway in the coming months going upwards, but we will be coming back to the 2750-3000 level one more time to make a decision on whether we will be hanging around the 2000 zone for a while or the 4000 level. For now the break of the T1 trendline on the beginning of september is yet to remain a retest of a resistance which in the first place was doomed to a failure that resulted in a turnaround and will be so again.

Daily
On the daily time frame we still have a possibility of touching the perimeter of circle#1, but after 6 days of hittng the high of 3640, small signs of a turnaround is being seen. Since it is not clear which circle (#1 or #2) is being respected by price acrtion, the straight lines were drawn. From these lines it is conclusive to make a inference that the "Median Band" of trendlines is creating a zone of rejection. If the rejection continues more downwards, the first spot for a spike upwards will be around 3215 area, and if the rejection is only temporary then we will end up close to the 3800 zone. The structure of the last C wave is not completed yet, so a highly corrective 5 wave unfolding could be the final output before a dip downwards begins.

Thanks for the post Kambooj. I appreciate reading your insights.

You are welcomed, sorry I dont post as much as I did before, but thats mainly because I found the market to be quite unpredictable during the past couple of months, and ususally try to post whenever I feel we are close to a major move. For the most part there isnt much activity and trend these days, and its a real strange season for forex. Usually activity starts to pickup considerably from September onwards, but its been quite a slow market for 80% of the time.

EUR/USD Outlook

After staying out for almost 2 weeks and watching the upward movement continue to defy my expectations, almost going another 300 pips upwards from 3500 I have to say that this upward movement is getting close to a major fibonacci overlap zone, where several fibonacci retracements and price extensions are overlapping creating a hard resistance zone for price action to penetrate. I would say within the next 100-120 pips a turn around should be finally coming its way. Shown below are the curvatures corresponding to the different support zones, and the resistance area of 3800-3900.

EUR/USD Outlook

Turnaround is expected with this pair very soon. H4 RSI on the verge of a decend

EUR/USD Outlook

This pair is very close to ending its upward cycle and will most probably experience a series of falls in the coming months. Here are the details on the weekly chart.

3840 would be a great place to short. 3819 also.

we never know 100%.

great analyze

Thanks for your circular analysis Kambooj. Do you try to incorporate wave analysis as well? If so, I'd be interested in seeing/sharing wave counts to see if they reconcile.

I will try to do a wave count, but I am not the best at it, since I dont practice it that much anymore. The best guy is "Infinitus" in forex factory and you can search for his wave counts on his "Shangri-La" thread.

He is real good in doing the counts.

I do my counts using the "Glenn Neely" method which is called Neowave. Infinitus uses the normal elliot wave to do his counts.

I've talked some to Markus, he's moved on to a new thread called 'The Club'. I was just curious if you tried to reconcile your circular analysis with a potential wave count.

For example, could you see a scenario within your circular analysis, where price only does a retracement from here of around 300 pips before continuing higher to 1.44/1.45?

Yes, that is a possibility as long as the retracement stands above 3280/3300, but right now If a retracement happens the 3300 is a "Given" level to look for. I am more looking into the 3000 level being where it might rest before going up.

This whole movement that started from July 9 2013 from 2750 is lacking a lot of momentum for a impulse pattern, so although the bigger formation from 2750 has not finished yet, but from a behavior perspective it looks like a scenario where the final outcome will be a triangle of some sort or the other.

I will post some elliot wave charts of my own view before tomorrow morning EST.

Here is my wave count, sorry for the late posting.
Both scenarios point to a downfall, one more than the other.