Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Weekly candle tells me down for next week

Weak week candle

still holding long from begining on september

k

Or, more accurately, weak week weak candle.

Please explain this

Yes it looks weak on weekly, im bit confused here on Monthly... but im short for now

My view on GU is still long! I have attached a weekly chart which shows movement above 200ema and a 4hr with recent demand points trendline holding giving me hope for 1.6339 and eventually 1.6398 (82% weekly fibo) should hold pretty good, possible reversal.

looks like a doji w1 at res ?

If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is a duck.

lol yea I guess if only life was that simple

Yes, it is.

my view

lol

If it looks almost like a gravestone doji, walks almost like a gravestone doji and quacks almost like a gravestone doji, it probably is almost a gravestone doji.

Gravestone dojis don't have a bottom wick. This is a regular doji.

But a bearish one

Well the chart is at resistance! One would expect reversal in GBPUSD and on the same basis, the EURUSD

edit: or at least a retracement

W/e review

The weekly candle closes as a long upper wicked doji (?) this after the 1st test of the previous minor weekly swing hi zone that extends to 6259...and the weekly descending trend line that joins the April 2011 hi with that. The fractal swing HL at 5893 is created by the close of this weekly candle - the last on this t/f and 3rd swing HL now in the t/f's general opa (overall price action) uptrend which is still intact despite this candle close. This said the weekly candle close in itself is bearish. Price closed above both the 100 and 200sma's on this t/f, and the 100 remains below the 200. Price this week just travelled only 49% of it's 20 week atr.

Friday's daily candle closes as an inverted hammer with a bearish engulfing body of the previous candle's body (ie Thursday's candle,) and this the 2nd visible test of the previous daily/minor weekly swing hi zone to 6259 on this t/f....this of itself is a bearish sign. No fractal swing was created by the close of Friday's daily candle and the general opa uptrend remains intact but the 2 tests of the aforementioned potential resistance zone to 6259 have been repelled and this is a bearish sign. Price closed above both the 100 and 200 sma's on this t/f and the 100 remains above the 200 and pointing up. Price travelled only 89% of 20 day atr on Friday.

The 4hr imperfect 'H&S' pattern has begun to play out and this t/f remains in an opa range between 6114-6256, looking more bearish than bullish now as the steepest ascending trend line on this t/f is breeched to the downside with a candle close below it. The 1hr too is mixed - bearish re opa, Friday's 6148 lo came at 76.4% of the 6118-6146 move with Friday's Daily S1...the upside pullback from there has encountered resistance at the underside of the steepest former ascending trend line on this 1hr t/f and been repelled lower from there to close at around 6162. The last 1hr and 4hr candle closes were very bearish, (these on my chart feed anyway.)

Summary

I've been teasing the bears all week. Tuesday's delayed U.s NFP or Friday's much anticipated Uk Q3 GDP prelim both failed to force price beyond the previous daily/minor weekly swing hi at 6259 and there have this week been 4 attempts on it (visible on 1hr chart) that have been repelled lower by supply there. Despite the opa uptrend still being intact on the daily and weekly the 4hr and 1hr are looking increasingly bearish and must be of concern to the longer term bulls in this pairing. It will be interesting to see where price opens on Sunday for the new week but as things have closed this week, overall across the t/f's discussed above it points to more downside being the greater probability, the extent to which no one can determine with any degree of accuracy?

Next week is scheduled Uk data/event risk light....and U.s NFP will not be 1st Friday in month but the 2nd Friday now - Nov 8th. With only a few trading days left of October - price has travelled 70% of it's 20 month atr so far.

G/L