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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #350,461
  • Oct 25, 2013 1:40am Oct 25, 2013 1:40am
Quoting negrada
COMRADES - Just jumped out of my short on this rebound at 1.621 - I'm not in the business of gambling and for the next two hours this will be pure gambling on the GDP results. Once the numbers are out I continue the play. I don't care if this thing drops to 1.59 before the GDP results I'm not doing anything.

wise decision..morning people
  • #350,462
  • Oct 25, 2013 1:47am Oct 25, 2013 1:47am
Quoting Baggi
Here are the last two times we had this same news for GBP The first one was the response when the numbers met expectations. {image} This second one is when the numbers exceeded expectations. {image}
Nice charts. The problem of all indicators are by the time, the price has fly quite a distance away. Can be trapped easily.
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #350,463
  • Oct 25, 2013 1:49am Oct 25, 2013 1:49am
Quoting Davit
Still can't figure out why the big jump, the gap during market open... Last time it was Carney blubbering on Newspaper or spinning.The guy was 13yrs at Goldman Sachs Beginning to feels sorry for Bears including me.... {image}

I have the same gap on my MB Trading Metatrader too Davit but see no news to explain it.

I trade futures and at exactly 4 GMT the pound$ one minute bar went up 32 pips!


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  • #350,464
  • Oct 25, 2013 1:49am Oct 25, 2013 1:49am
Gidday GBP/US

Well its been tricky tonight

choppy as hell.

Might be reloading for we jump up

Got a couple off bigger trades above which I need out

Now look at it taking a turd right on dinner time
  • #350,465
  • Oct 25, 2013 1:51am Oct 25, 2013 1:51am
Quoting Tsar
{quote} Hint... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/b...f-England.html

Thanks Tsar but its old news Oct 22

I think its probably what Jimmy C posted.
THanks

At this point my goal is to survive the bull run....with my multiple shorts....
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #350,466
  • Oct 25, 2013 1:53am Oct 25, 2013 1:53am
I have three choices before bed.

1) Put stop above the high and hope we head down while I sleep.
2) Put stop at B/E and hope we don't swing back up that far if we end up going down.
3) Take profit and just get out before bed.

I'm thinking of going for #2 right now.
  • #350,467
  • Oct 25, 2013 1:55am Oct 25, 2013 1:55am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Thanks Tsar but its old news Oct 22 I think its probably what Jimmy C posted. THanks
Recommend for these...

http://www.marctomarket.com/
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #350,468
  • Oct 25, 2013 1:58am Oct 25, 2013 1:58am
Quoting bbmac
The point I was making and have made a lot of times here is that the retail crowd is generally a contrary indicator ....{quote} {image}


Just sharing the results in case anyone wanted to know - I got the whole daily time series of the Forex Factory Retailers Lots Open since 1st Jan and compared it against the return on GBPUSD on the following day; also I have assessed how many times retailers got it wrong and what's the probability of that being just random noise instead of a real edge.


Retailers got it more wrong than right, but just by a tiny margin of 50.3% vs 49.7%. Also, the probability of this being just random noise instead of a real edge is a high 33.68%.


Calculations attached in case anyone wants to remember university Statistics.


Good luck trying to use retailers as a contrarian indicator!

Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx RetailCorrel.xlsx   68 KB | 194 downloads
  • #350,469
  • Oct 25, 2013 2:00am Oct 25, 2013 2:00am
Quoting Baggi
I have three choices before bed. 1) Put stop above the high and hope we head down while I sleep. 2) Put stop at B/E and hope we don't swing back up that far if we end up going down. 3) Take profit and just get out before bed. I'm thinking of going for #2 right now.
If you are in profit, I would take it now. Why? Because if price spikes up on better than expected news, your stop loss will get slipped by several pips due to lack of liquidity. Also regardless of the outcome of the GDP, seconds before the release, the spread will widen considerably and take out your stop anyway... even if the data does not meet expectation.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #350,470
  • Oct 25, 2013 2:02am Oct 25, 2013 2:02am
Quoting negrada
{quote} Good luck trying to use retailers as a contrarian indicator! {file}
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #350,471
  • Oct 25, 2013 2:06am Oct 25, 2013 2:06am
Yesterday during both sessions we could see how GBPUSD was trying to break 1.6162 level and go down. Now when that level is defended we’ll be looking for a long possition at 1.6175-1.6180 level, eventually at 1.6160-1.6165 level. On the other hand 1.6255-1.6260 level will be good to open short possition. SL 10-15, TP 25-30 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Price Action + KISS + PIE = Forex-Entourage
  • #350,472
  • Oct 25, 2013 2:14am Oct 25, 2013 2:14am
Howzit! GU

Same charts different day, I will be looking to review this weekend (as usual)

Major news themes remain: Stimulus stays in the US (DXY is very bearish and although at very low levels doesn't mean it can't go lower...)
Minor themes US indexes closed a few points down. The FTSE is still in its uptrend

Candle sticks: Inside bar in place
EMA 200,50 still above both and still above the golden cross
We remain technically in an UP trend (though ranging for the week)
We are at the top of the weekly range...
Daily is painting a little shooting star for now after a sell-off by Asia
Indicators (RSI Stochs) Continuing Bearish divergence
1.625 remains as very strong resistance which is making the idea of going long difficult till it breaks last R was todays high of 1.6255 (my broker)
1.612 is still intact as support that's up from 1.594ish

News ahead EU data - watch EU... it can drag GU up with it and it is now bullish and trending up... There is some speculation that its going places

Big News for GU... GDP expecting 0.8%

I have a bearish bias due to technical divergence and GU showing weakness of trend BUT if this story doesn't confirm by mid next week, I will adjust my strategy according to the technical's that seem more relevant then.

Have an awesome day, (Friday )

You can't control the market but you can control your attitude.

G/L
  • #350,473
  • Oct 25, 2013 2:19am Oct 25, 2013 2:19am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} wise decision..morning people
Howzit Nav!
  • #350,474
  • Oct 25, 2013 2:21am Oct 25, 2013 2:21am
money slip.....
  • #350,475
  • Oct 25, 2013 2:23am Oct 25, 2013 2:23am
G/M,
Attached Image
ex member
  • #350,476
  • Oct 25, 2013 2:26am Oct 25, 2013 2:26am
Quoting bbmac
G/M, {image}
Mornin Mac. Big news soon. How much of a 0.8% GDP do you think is already priced in? I'd say it's been all priced in already... probably for the last couple of weeks.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #350,477
  • Oct 25, 2013 2:27am Oct 25, 2013 2:27am
market will kick ....
  • #350,478
  • Oct 25, 2013 2:29am Oct 25, 2013 2:29am
...A move down from 6213-6178 then up to 6246 in Asian session where supply again repelled price from that zone leading up to 6259 previous 4hr/daily/minor weekly swing hi...1hr and 4hr remain mixed-bullish re opa...into early London session. Of course Uk data at 0930am, more on that later. 1hr is below

G/L
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ex member
  • #350,479
  • Oct 25, 2013 2:31am Oct 25, 2013 2:31am
market will kiss....
  • #350,480
  • Oct 25, 2013 2:32am Oct 25, 2013 2:32am
Hi, G/M, ...0.8% -that's certainly the expectation isn't it ?...and with the commentary/analysis from usual suspects/talking heads it leads us to believe the number could surprise to the upside...which I think will cause a bi knee-jerk reaction. To what extent 0.8% is priced in I don't really know - the market seems reluctant to break thru that 6259 barrier beforehand ?

This how forexcrunch.com see it:

http://www.forexcrunch.com/gbpusd-tr...iminary-gdp-3/

G/L

Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Mornin Mac. Big news soon. How much of a 0.8% GDP do you think is already priced in? I'd say it's been all priced in already... probably for the last couple of weeks.
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