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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #350,201
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:43am Oct 24, 2013 2:43am
Re U.s....analysts at Citi group and Barclays now expect tapering in U.s to begin in March 2014 (if all well re budget/debt ceiling in Jan/Feb) and not fully end till end of 2014.

Meanwhile all important Uk Q3 Gdp prelim tomorrow at 0930am London.

How are you bears diddling ? alrighty ? - some signs of hope ?

They're playing Kate Bush on the radio - all's well with the world (well for 3 mins anyway)

G/L
ex member
  • #350,202
  • Edited 3:00am Oct 24, 2013 2:49am | Edited 3:00am
wherever market movements.....
Real madrid still win 2-1 vs Juventus......
  • #350,203
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:50am Oct 24, 2013 2:50am
Quoting bbmac
Re U.s....analysts at Citi group and Barclays now expect tapering in U.s to begin in March 2014 (if all well re budget/debt ceiling in Jan/Feb) and not fully end till end of 2014. Meanwhile all important Uk Q3 Gdp prelim tomorrow at 09830am London. How are you bears diddling ? alrighty ? - some signs of hope ? They're playing Kate Bush on the radio - all's well with the world (well for 3 mins anyway) G/L
Purring quietly, reading books, watching movies and praying EU doesn't break 1.382 (50) in my case
And quietly hoping Carney is reading this thread and post a BIG PUT through on the GDP release... Otherwise... Next week

Patience, patience (It is a Medium Term view)


G/L
  • #350,204
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:50am Oct 24, 2013 2:50am
Quoting bbmac
Re U.s....analysts at Citi group and Barclays now expect tapering in U.s to begin in March 2014 (if all well re budget/debt ceiling in Jan/Feb) and not fully end till end of 2014. Meanwhile all important Uk Q3 Gdp prelim tomorrow at 09830am London. How are you bears diddling ? alrighty ? - some signs of hope ? They're playing Kate Bush on the radio - all's well with the world (well for 3 mins anyway) G/L
I know hope is not really appropriate in trading, but in life it is something that sits inside and nobody can take it away from you...
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #350,205
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:56am Oct 24, 2013 2:56am
Quoting sepuluh
wherever market movements..... Real madrid still win 2-0 vs Juventus......

2-1
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #350,206
  • Oct 24, 2013 2:59am Oct 24, 2013 2:59am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Real smart, no stops. The guys who gave you a vouch should get time in prison!
Perhaps the vouch giver admire his no-stop courage, that was how his vouch story came about.
  • #350,207
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:00am Oct 24, 2013 3:00am
Quoting bikov
{quote} 2-1

oh yes....wrong input
2-1
ronaldo 2 goal real madrid
llorente 1 goal juventus
  • #350,208
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:08am Oct 24, 2013 3:08am
I agree, and it it perhaps illustrates why trading is so hard (or at least one of the reasons - but I believe one of the main reasons)..ie the psychological responses we need often run counter intuitive to normal human responses in all other situations...ie when we should fear (and cut the loss) we hope instead and hang onto it and when we should hope (and keep winning trades open and not cut them) we fear unrealised loss of pips gained and close.

All Hope, and greed is fear really - hope is the fear of realising a loss and being wrong, and greed is the fear of missing out...revenge too is fear - of letting a loss lie and being turned over without immediate recourse...fear is the therefore likely the biggest psychological element in trading for most - conquer/learn to control this in the right way - given the relevant circumstances and you have the 'keys to the kingdom.'

G/L

Quoting milam
{quote} I know hope is not really appropriate in trading, but in life it is something that sits inside and nobody can take it away from you...
ex member
  • #350,209
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:09am Oct 24, 2013 3:09am
FRIENDS - just for the record, I'm still sitting on my half-position short at 1.6251 from Tuesday night. I actually have a SL at BE (already got TP'd on half of it at 90-something pips) so somebody might argue this is as good as no SL.

Anyway, if Super Casino Theory holds and this cwap collapses again with no apparent reason, I might TP the rest. I think the GDP tomorrow will surprise on the upside. The reason? I live in South East England and I've seen how the levels of activity have risen - a friend of mine who has his own construction business said the last time he's been that busy it was before Lehman Brothers. And our GDP growth was very decent back then.

Obviously my view can be biased as tomorrow the release will be for the UK GDP and not for the South East England GDP.

Cheers.
  • #350,210
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:11am Oct 24, 2013 3:11am
Quoting bbmac
All Hope, and greed is fear really - hope is the fear of realising a loss and being wrong, and greed is the fear of missing out...revenge too is fear - of letting a loss lie and being turned over without immediate recourse...
nice way to put it.
  • #350,211
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:16am Oct 24, 2013 3:16am
Quoting bbmac
I agree, and it it perhaps illustrates why trading is so hard (or at least one of the reasons - but I believe one of the main reasons)..ie the psychological responses we need often run counter intuitive to normal human responses in all other situations...ie when we should fear (and cut the loss) we hope instead and hang onto it and when we should hope (and keep winning trades open and not cut them) we fear unrealised loss of pips gained and close. All Hope, and greed is fear really - hope is the fear of realising a loss and being wrong, and greed...

Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #350,212
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:20am Oct 24, 2013 3:20am
Quoting sepuluh
{quote} oh yes....wrong input 2-1 ronaldo 2 goal real madrid llorente 1 goal juventus

It should be 3-1 but Benzema has some serious problems. Anyway, weekly CCI34 at 170, R at 1.62 proves to be very tough and cable's brother - fiber's daily CCI34 is 218. My point is that the dollar is oversold now and placing a sell order at cable is a good idea with solid r/r ratio - SL 1.6270 TP 1.5555 ( I don't think that cable would make it to 1.63 but who knows..)
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #350,213
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:22am Oct 24, 2013 3:22am
Quoting negrada
FRIENDS - just for the record, I'm still sitting on my half-position short at 1.6251 from Tuesday night. I actually have a SL at BE (already got TP'd on half of it at 90-something pips) so somebody might argue this is as good as no SL. Anyway, if Super Casino Theory holds and this cwap collapses again with no apparent reason, I might TP the rest. I think the GDP tomorrow will surprise on the upside. The reason? I live in South East England and I've seen how the levels of activity have risen - a friend of mine who has his own construction business...
I'm in the south east too and I agree with you, I'm looking to close off a few short positions today
  • #350,214
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:23am Oct 24, 2013 3:23am
Lol re South East England Gdp and good implicit point re disparity of that region -vs- other parts of Uk re economic activity. For me I get an even more distorted view - I live in the People's Republic of Knightsbridge, Central London..(yes I may be the only quasi revolutionary republican marxist living here but I have declared a peoples republic and will file for independence from the Uk very soon lol !) and it is easy to believe here that the whole 2008 crash and resulting recession never happened...but then I pinch myself and realise - this isn't the 'real world.' lol !

G/L

Quoting negrada
FRIENDS - just for the record, I'm still sitting on my half-position short at 1.6251 from Tuesday night. I actually have a SL at BE (already got TP'd on half of it at 90-something pips) so somebody might argue this is as good as no SL. Anyway, if Super Casino Theory holds and this cwap collapses again with no apparent reason, I might TP the rest. I think the GDP tomorrow will surprise on the upside. The reason? I live in South East England and I've seen how the levels of activity have risen - a friend of mine who has his own construction business...
ex member
  • #350,215
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:25am Oct 24, 2013 3:25am
Quoting sepuluh
{quote} oh yes....wrong input 2-1 ronaldo 2 goal real madrid llorente 1 goal juventus
Best post of the day so far LOL, hopefully they'll beat barca as well on Saturday
  • #350,216
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:28am Oct 24, 2013 3:28am
Quoting bikov
{quote} It should be 3-1 but Benzema has some serious problems. Anyway, weekly CCI34 at 170, R at 1.62 proves to be very tough and cable's brother - fiber's daily CCI34 is 218. My point is that the dollar is oversold now and placing a sell order at cable is a good idea with solid r/r ratio - SL 1.6270 TP 1.5555 ( I don't think that cable would make it to 1.63 but who knows..)
benzema ?.....
mmhhh....when arbeloa assist for benzema from right .........
i think morata more better now ....

okey...oversold . I hope that's right
  • #350,217
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:35am Oct 24, 2013 3:35am
Quoting sepuluh
{quote} benzema ?..... mmhhh....when arbeloa assist for benzema from right ......... i think morata more better now .... okey...oversold . I hope that's right
Yes, oversold but we should be aware that this condition could last many days, so placing SL according to MM is the best we can do, nobody here knows for sure what's gonna be, it's just a game of probabilities. Just like guessing the final result in Torino between Juventus-R.Madrid
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #350,218
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:39am Oct 24, 2013 3:39am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Real smart, no stops. The guys who gave you a vouch should get time in prison!
Before calling someone with names look at this guy http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=88949

... no stops. Is he in tears?
  • #350,219
  • Oct 24, 2013 3:45am Oct 24, 2013 3:45am
Quoting bikov
{quote} Yes, oversold but we should be aware that this condition could last many days, so placing SL according to MM is the best we can do, nobody here knows for sure what's gonna be, it's just a game of probabilities. Just like guessing the final result in Torino between Juventus-R.Madrid
I Wish Bale healthy fast and do not be injured again

becarefull about oversold...........

because market creat 3 SEAL bijuu.....
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  • #350,220
  • Oct 24, 2013 4:00am Oct 24, 2013 4:00am
I don't want to scare the longer term bears - heaven forbid - I wouldn't do that (!)...but consider what a print of 0.8% or more will do to this pairing ire Uk Q3 GDP prelim tomorrow....last Qtr finalised at 0.7% and forecast consensus seems to have settled around 0.8% for this release...so if on forecast or higher and particularly higher we could see some knee-jerk (+) £ buying...if we see a 1.0% print for eg I would not be surprised to see 6349 swing hi challenged....and anything 0.8% or more could very likely see 6259 swing hi give to the upside (if it doesn't in the meantime.) Get above 6349 and the swing hi @ 6617 moves into view ?

Monthly remains rangy with recent strength off that 4811 low.

G/L
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