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EUR/CHF

  • #11,301
  • Oct 20, 2013 1:54pm Oct 20, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting brinks
Anyone got any ideas for the coming week? Apart from more range trading. It held up well last week considering what was going on with usd/chf and usd/jpy
Hi Brinks, to me nice uptrend on the daily, but failed to make a HH so I would expect another try around 1,238 (also 200MA held well).
So for me most probably north, but:

- tons of US data could cause some jitter (with USDCHF on its lower bound),
- and as a bad scenario because of the failed HH I could also imagine another try south at least to 200MA

bit coin tossing at this point (for me no L or S here)
  • #11,302
  • Oct 21, 2013 12:28am Oct 21, 2013 12:28am
Quoting pipxster
{quote} Hi Brinks, to me nice uptrend on the daily, but failed to make a HH so I would expect another try around 1,238 (also 200MA held well). So for me most probably north, but: - tons of US data could cause some jitter (with USDCHF on its lower bound), - and as a bad scenario because of the failed HH I could also imagine another try south at least to 200MA bit coin tossing at this point (for me no L or S here)

Thanks pip

yep as I said last week some bullish ema crosses but at the upper end of the range so I don't think much more upside to come.
  • #11,303
  • Oct 21, 2013 3:42am Oct 21, 2013 3:42am
hi guys,

has anyone clues when they could lower the peg?

commerzbank or somebody said that now fair rate for eurchf is 1.22 and not 1.35 as previous and that lowering the peg is possible.
  • #11,304
  • Oct 21, 2013 4:07am Oct 21, 2013 4:07am
do not believe them...1.35 much better for Swiss like 1.22
i am sure
  • #11,305
  • Oct 21, 2013 4:22am Oct 21, 2013 4:22am
Yes, i don't think SNB will lower the peg. To keep this level (1,2) is free for SNB for more than 1 year. They do not need to buy any EUR in the past year.

If the SNB lowering the peg, the price will go lower of course, and maybe test the new peg.

The result will be:

- SNB need to buy again a lot of EUR
- SNB will have a huge Loss in CHF which is not good for shareholders

So i think this is a wrong idea. Maybe somebody want to kill some long positions with this news. Do you have any sources?
  • #11,306
  • Oct 21, 2013 5:40am Oct 21, 2013 5:40am
It was news on fxpro platform...

It would really be financial and economic disaster for Swiss and SNB to lower the peg that's for sure,
but stupid or smart doesn't decide.
  • #11,307
  • Oct 21, 2013 10:54am Oct 21, 2013 10:54am
Big bar down today engulfing Friday's bar.
  • #11,308
  • Oct 21, 2013 1:13pm Oct 21, 2013 1:13pm
LMAO, who cares of commerzbank and whatever rumors. Look at your chart

Today's low corresponds to several factors matching at that same support price. No break of 1.23 before NFP at worst.
Under 1.23, supports on 1.2270, 1.2250, 1.2160 and 1.2110s. Up resistance 1.2375 to 1.2430s and 1.2470s

EU Up does not equal EC Up, UC down does not equal EC down(unless a big acceleration down in UC due to Swiss Franc strength, after breaking 0.90 and 0.8950)

EU down does not equal EC down, UC Up does not equal EC Up despite can help when UC strikes Up due to main Swiss Franc weakness

EC had been managing correlation between UC and EU. That means no big drop in EC for the time being

Not far to see EC breaking May's 1.2650 high and going up the 1.27 approaching the 1.28
Trade according to current market condition, not what you think would be.
  • #11,309
  • Oct 21, 2013 3:54pm Oct 21, 2013 3:54pm
good r:r trade opening on downside.
  • #11,310
  • Oct 21, 2013 4:09pm Oct 21, 2013 4:09pm
Nice reading from you. For me the situation is as follow:
- Strong support at 1.2314, unless something major, this should hold the pair
- 1.238 proves a strong resistance, unless something major, this should limit the up moves
=> so, we have a range between these 2 numbers.

I am not sure that this week heavy data flow will help us going out of this situation. For the medium term, I stick to a large range of 1.213 to 1.252... Sorry, but I really do not see a 1.15, nor a 1.27 (though, I would like the later ).
  • #11,311
  • Oct 22, 2013 8:00am Oct 22, 2013 8:00am
If i see the chart only: this is a very nice H1 H4 bullish candle

Let see what happening
  • #11,312
  • Oct 22, 2013 10:19am Oct 22, 2013 10:19am
dollar swissie getting smashed

Not a lot of hope for euro swissie to go up especially with LTRO''s and rate cuts in the offing from the ECB
  • #11,313
  • Oct 23, 2013 4:39am Oct 23, 2013 4:39am
I am looking for break of 1.2000.

not ready yet.
  • #11,314
  • Oct 23, 2013 12:31pm Oct 23, 2013 12:31pm
Quoting ljudozerec
I am looking for break of 1.2000. not ready yet.
I really can't see this happening ljudozerec. The SNB will protect the cap with "unlimited" reserves. There is certainly a loooooooooooooooong way to get be before we even get close to this level. EC is generally supported around the 1.228x and 1.223x levels. I see the recent pull back as a nice buying opportunity.

Good luck!
  • #11,315
  • Oct 23, 2013 1:36pm Oct 23, 2013 1:36pm
Unusual daytrade: out @be around 12315 back in @12285
(just with some part of the whole) gradual adding mode if we go further down
lets see if UC smashed further or just hunting
  • #11,316
  • Oct 23, 2013 1:56pm Oct 23, 2013 1:56pm
Quoting njr
{quote} I really can't see this happening ljudozerec. The SNB will protect the cap with "unlimited" reserves. There is certainly a loooooooooooooooong way to get be before we even get close to this level. EC is generally supported around the 1.228x and 1.223x levels. I see the recent pull back as a nice buying opportunity. Good luck!
you could be right but big money is on downside. Cracks in the dam appearing.

Say, avalanche of stops bit above and under 1.2000.
  • #11,317
  • Oct 23, 2013 2:18pm Oct 23, 2013 2:18pm
Quoting ljudozerec
{quote} you could be right but big money is on downside. Cracks in the dam appearing. Say, avalanche of stops bit above and under 1.2000.
Hi ljudo read older posts here this would cause a major damage to Swiss economy and a huge loss (usd 50bln?) for SNB. so they wont let it happen unless inflation picks up significantly and this seems currently very unlikely
  • #11,318
  • Oct 23, 2013 3:28pm Oct 23, 2013 3:28pm
there are pressures on eur....

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/1...event-default/

swiss is primarily premium tax haven. and dropping chf because of eur trouble will not be liked by tax washing companies with headquarters in CF.....

CF probably behind Cyprus downfall to kill competition.
  • #11,319
  • Oct 23, 2013 3:57pm Oct 23, 2013 3:57pm
Looking at UC I wonder what Jordan thinks, its lowest since 11/11.
50% of their export are in USD adjusting the peg to 1,25 could be simply
resolved by bidding on USD
Unfortunately this is not Hildebrands company anymore
  • #11,320
  • Oct 23, 2013 4:02pm Oct 23, 2013 4:02pm
Quoting pipxster
Looking at UC I wonder what Jordan thinks, its lowest since 11/11. 50% of their export are in USD adjusting the peg to 1,25 could be simply resolved by bidding on USD Unfortunately this is not Hildebrands company anymore
I read somewhere that 80% of export is EU. The other is USA, Japan, China etc. That's why eurchf is so important.

But chf is really overvalued against USD, GBP, JPY, etc. It will not weaken on his own way.

We need some verbal action at least from SNB
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