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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #349,501
  • Oct 20, 2013 1:42am Oct 20, 2013 1:42am
Advise for Trader Are always Deposit every week........
Attached Image
  • #349,502
  • Oct 20, 2013 1:52am Oct 20, 2013 1:52am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} For completely different reasons I sold that pair too....only to be stopped out when Oanda raised spreads 25 points Friday. That really pissed me off, may stop trading that pair since this is like the third time I've had problems with it.
Normally it is not one of my favourite pairs, but jeez mate I keep hearing about wide spreads. Do yourself a favour & sack your broker.
Money Makes Money
  • #349,503
  • Oct 20, 2013 7:21am Oct 20, 2013 7:21am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} For completely different reasons I sold that pair too....only to be stopped out when Oanda raised spreads 25 points Friday. That really pissed me off, may stop trading that pair since this is like the third time I've had problems with it.
That should not happen during Friday trading. Switch to a ECN broker where they only make money on commission and not on spreads. I suggest Dukascopy. They publish their historical data for spreads for all to see.

http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...ketwatch/swfx/
  • #349,504
  • Oct 20, 2013 7:38am Oct 20, 2013 7:38am
Quoting Chubbly
{quote} That should not happen during Friday trading. Switch to a ECN broker where they only make money on commission and not on spreads. I suggest Dukascopy. They publish their historical data for spreads for all to see. http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...ketwatch/swfx/
I've heard good things about Dukascopy, but I'm not quite at the $5000 range for minimum deposit lol.

Also something new to consider. I rarely ever post my actual chart zones anymore but have a look how far up on the curve we are. Rally has been going on for a while and we're now reaching an area where price has historically had problems going farther. Lower low since last December and signs that banks are selling on the lower time frames. Even if you get snubbed once or twice it's worth taking shots to get your short positions in.

I could see price eventually getting to the 1.50 area over the next 3 months without a lot of trouble (first roadblock is around that area), maybe lower given time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd-w1-oanda-division1.png Size: 52 KB
  • #349,505
  • Oct 20, 2013 7:44am Oct 20, 2013 7:44am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} I've heard good things about Dukascopy, but I'm not quite at the $5000 range for minimum deposit lol.
Yes, it is $5000 for the Dukascopy Swiss, your money is insured up to 100,000 CHF there since it is a Swiss bank.

But it is only $100 deposit for Dukascopy Europe which is still owned by Dukascopy but hosted in another EU country. Same spreads
http://www.dukascopy.com/europe/english/home/
  • #349,506
  • Oct 20, 2013 7:51am Oct 20, 2013 7:51am
Quoting Chubbly
{quote} Yes, it is $5000 for the Dukascopy Swiss, your money is insured up to 100,000 CHF there since it is a Swiss bank. But it is only $100 deposit for Dukascopy Europe which is still owned by Dukascopy but hosted in another EU country. Same spreads http://www.dukascopy.com/europe/english/home/
Only problem is they don't seem to service US residents. It seems I'm stuck with what I have for now.
  • #349,507
  • Oct 20, 2013 8:19am Oct 20, 2013 8:19am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} lol, It almost looks like one of the soldiers at the back of the image is holding up a camera so he can film the hilarity to show his kids one day (if he survives).
Thus... the Concern is when Patrol Car's no longer there
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #349,508
  • Oct 20, 2013 8:24am Oct 20, 2013 8:24am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Only problem is they don't seem to service US residents. It seems I'm stuck with what I have for now.
Ahh... yes all those silly US rules which hurt US based traders....

In that case you can still use them but through a Dukascopy White Label partner like FXDD or Alpari. You still get ECN service with the same spreads. I know lots of US folks go this route

http://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/engli...WL/wl-prtners/


As for GU I agree we will drift down again to 1.5x
  • #349,509
  • Oct 20, 2013 8:35am Oct 20, 2013 8:35am
Quoting Tsar
{quote} Thus... the Concern is when Patrol Car's no longer there
I get the illustration like...
Attached Image
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #349,510
  • Oct 20, 2013 9:25am Oct 20, 2013 9:25am
Quoting bbmac
The 'main' Known event risks this coming week that may influence price direction of this pairing on the knee-jerk reaction and/or longer include UK PSBR data and U.s NFP on tuesday, Uk Boe MPC minutes on wednesday, Uk Boe Gvnr Carney speaking on thursday, and Uk 3rd Qtr Gdp prelim on Friday. With volatility comes opportunity....so hope they do create some movement either way. G/L
You're right...
Next Weekend got really too much News and Decisions. That's will affect the Market :nerd:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FF News_21-22-23 Sept 2013.jpg Size: 484 KB
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #349,511
  • Oct 20, 2013 9:38am Oct 20, 2013 9:38am
Buckle up: Here come the economic data

Published: Friday, 18 Oct 2013 | 8:10 PM ET
By: Patti Domm | CNBC Executive News Editor




Earnings and economic data could corral Wall Street's record-setting bull run, but stock strategists agree the market trend for now is higher.


The week ahead is jam-packed with earnings and economic news, the most important of which is the delayed September jobs report, now to be released Tuesday. Other data on import and export prices, held back by the government shutdown, will be released Wednesday. Then there's the earnings gusher, with McDonald's, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Boeing and Caterpillar among the more than 140 S&P 500 companies reporting.

Economic data will be key in the next several weeks, as economists weigh the impact of the 16-day government shutdown on the consumer, business confidence, and economic growth.


http://www.cnbc.com/id/101125152
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #349,512
  • Edited 10:43am Oct 20, 2013 9:44am | Edited 10:43am
Interesting to learn others' views and analysis and how they may be positioned/positioning themselves in respect of this pairing... Technically it seems the daily candle on Friday suggest more downside possible but this is one candle in a general opa uptrend on this t/f...and you have to weigh this up against the relative merits of Thursday's big bullish thrust daily candle (or was this just an overblown reaction to U.s budget/debt ceiling deal ?) ...supporting this more potential upside caveat the weekly candle close suggest more upside possible although price was repelled at the 1st 1/2 of the previous minor weekly swing hi zone leading to 6259 and of course above that there exists a wider previous weekly/monthly swing hi zone leading to 6349...remember too that last month's candle closed as a bullish thrust and the move up this week from 5893 weekly low after the pullback from 6259 may have been the pullback before an upside follow thru on that. It would certainly seem that a decisive, convincing and clear upside break of 6349 would confirm the overall technical bullish position right now. Even that though doesn't clear the monthly range/triangle thingy that has existed between the 3505 low and 7025 pullback off that low (points a and b respectively on chart below.) There have of course been 2 false downside breaks of the monthly triangle's/ascending t/lines (ascending wide dotted lines on chart below) and this may be significant and support the generally more upside view?

G/L
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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ex member
  • #349,513
  • Oct 20, 2013 9:46am Oct 20, 2013 9:46am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} That's not a falling wedge. The contact points in the are not ok.
GU

News related USD
- Bloomberg Dollar @ 8 month low as risk appetite swells on Fed Bets / same Reuters

Next debt ceiling crisis delayed till 15 Jan

Bond buying program will continue for 2013

News related GBP
- Bloomberg nil / Reuters

BOE believes rates can rise a fair amount without damaging borrowers


Charts

GU 1Y
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD1Y.png Size: 14 KB

Pin Bar

GU Monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD Monthly.png Size: 31 KB


Pin bar at the top of descending channel

GU Weekly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD Weekly.png Size: 24 KB


We've reversed after bouncing off major horizontal resistance @1.6265

GU Daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD Daily20 Oct.png Size: 46 KB


Price: Closed @ 1.61666 DMA Quote and 1.61655 Aggregated
Candle of interest: Shooting Star
S/R: Descending oblique channel (forming)

GU Daily Divergence
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD Daly Divergence.png Size: 53 KB

RSI: 62 and positive
Stochastic: %K 55 %D 28 positive

No divergence

EMA's
Attached Image


The 200 and 50 day EMA's formed a Golden Cross on 05/09
The PA is above both EMA's and subjectively this places the pair in an uptrend

Commentary

  1. The master trend is UP but reversing so for trading the preference should be short positions.
  2. Choppy action should be expected until Tuesday when market data may move the pair (NFP @last)
  3. The highest probability trades are supported by descending oblique resistance last tested at the top of the shooting star which is a confluent factor for short position entry with S/L @ 1.63
  4. First targets can be set at 1.5914 23.6% Fib
  5. Second Targets can be set at 1.570 38.2% Fib 1.571 (minor support)
  6. Duration of trade will be longer as there will be choppy PA with many traders still bullish

I'm not convinced that the ST wedge when drawn correctly will not still spike the price up to 1.62xx in the short-term before the bearish case scenario plays out.
My short entry on this pair will be decided inside the 10hrs after market open.



G/L

  • #349,514
  • Oct 20, 2013 10:03am Oct 20, 2013 10:03am
Europe's bold vision hits trouble

Published: Saturday, 19 Oct 2013 | 6:55 AM ET

Barely a year after European leaders set out an ambitious vision for the euro zone's future, progress has all but stalled and pressure is building for what may amount to a "make or break" moment for the union.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101126303



BoE's Broadbent: Rates could rise fair amount before problems

Published: Sunday, 20 Oct 2013 | 7:55 AM ET

The Bank of England has some leeway to raise record low interest rates without hitting borrowers buying homes with the help of government lending schemes, BoE policymaker Ben Broadbent said on Sunday.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101126889
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #349,515
  • Oct 20, 2013 10:05am Oct 20, 2013 10:05am
Quoting KiwiOz
{quote} May be excellent timing for this venture on Gbp/Usd. I would advise taking a look at the Nzd/Usd too for the same reasons. Almost the same chart pattern. (Albeit on different time frames) {image}
Beautiful chart, that could easily breakout southwards.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #349,516
  • Oct 20, 2013 10:06am Oct 20, 2013 10:06am
U.S. economy bruised by fiscal fight: Treasury Secretary


WASHINGTON | Sun Oct 20, 2013 10:14am EDT

(Reuters) - The U.S. economy has been hurt by a recent budget standoff in Washington and it is important that the nation does not go through another around of brinkmanship, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said on Sunday.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...99J05220131020
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #349,517
  • Oct 20, 2013 10:50am Oct 20, 2013 10:50am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} GU News related USD - Bloomberg Dollar @ 8 month low as risk appetite swells on Fed Bets / same Reuters Next debt ceiling crisis delayed till 15 JanBond buying program will continue for 2013News related GBP - Bloomberg nil / Reuters BOE believes rates can rise a fair amount without damaging borrowers Charts GU 1Y {image} Pin Bar GU Monthly {image} Pin bar at the top of descending channel GU Weekly {image} We've reversed after bouncing off major horizontal resistance @1.6265 GU Daily {image} Price: Closed @ 1.61666 DMA Quote and 1.61655...
when u get a chance can u plz post quarterly chart..thank u for the detailed analysis
  • #349,518
  • Oct 20, 2013 11:10am Oct 20, 2013 11:10am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} GU Daily Divergence {image} RSI: 62 and positive Stochastic: %K 55 %D 28 positive No divergence

Hi JimmyC,

You're WRONG !

In DAILY Chart... I've got Divergence
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-10-20_Cable in Daily Chart - Divergence.jpg Size: 857 KB
Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #349,519
  • Oct 20, 2013 11:11am Oct 20, 2013 11:11am
Quoting nAVIN2007
{quote} when u get a chance can u plz post quarterly chart..thank u for the detailed analysis
GU Quarterly

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD Quaterly.png Size: 22 KB
  • #349,520
  • Oct 20, 2013 11:33am Oct 20, 2013 11:33am
Quoting Tsar
{quote} Hi JimmyC, You're WRONG ! In DAILY Chart... I've got Divergence {image}
@Tsar

Nice indicator!
My searches and rules are for high probability entry with supporting candle and confluence of RSI and Stochs

I don't know yours (tell me more)

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