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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #349,061
  • Oct 16, 2013 3:03pm Oct 16, 2013 3:03pm
Maybe we'll get NFP from last month tomorrow or Friday
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  • #349,062
  • Oct 16, 2013 3:13pm Oct 16, 2013 3:13pm
Hi ,


I am waiting for the long opportunity after my current position be closed .

Just see this and send me what you think
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  • #349,063
  • Oct 16, 2013 3:24pm Oct 16, 2013 3:24pm
From my experience on a major FX dealing desk systematic macro accounts are usually driven by moving average related decision making and less so on 'levels'. The recent top in GBPUSD has essentially been a V shaped move up to 6250 and back down to where we are now. The momentum systematic accounts usually do not catch the tops and bottoms of moves as their models usually only jump into the momentum after its been started. So i would guess additional moves lower, below 1.5900 and 1.3450/80 would see more new model selling.
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  • #349,064
  • Oct 16, 2013 3:24pm Oct 16, 2013 3:24pm
A sizeable move down then from 6059 (current daily hi) to current daily lo 5893 (around 1st 1/2 previous 4hr/minor daily swing lo zone / 76.4% 5771-6259 - before a bounce back up to a previous 1hr/minor 4hr swing lo zone (previous support) where supply came in again.

A temporary budget/debt ceiling deal looks set to pass the house and senate in the U.s - buying time till early next year when unless a newly instigated 'bi-partisan' so called 'super committee' can make a longer term agreement we may see a re-run of the entire thing. Can the deep ideological divide between Obama's democrats and the Tea party faction of the Republicans really be bridged ? What will they do to bridge the - $3.8tr govt spending -vs- the + $2.5tr govt income deficit gap that keeps adding to the already huge circa $16.7tr national debt ? It's more taxes or less spending or both - it ain't rocket science !...but therein lies the ideological divide...tea party want less govt, democrats seem to want more (although this is largely a myth ?) and what is actually required is 'better' govt.

Technically it looks bearish on 1hr and 4hr re opa and we've now seen a LL on daily at today's current low although that t/f like the weekly re opa still looks more bullish than bearish notwithstanding individual candle prints on these t/f's. (opa = overall price action analysis.)

Uk retails sales tomorrow (last month disappointed at -0.9%) so keen eye on that and some U.s data too and over Thurs/Fri some Fomc members speaking...may also see the delayed NFP data in U.s on Friday ?

G/L
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ex member
  • #349,065
  • Oct 16, 2013 3:54pm Oct 16, 2013 3:54pm
Governments tend to express national debt as a % of GDP (nominally known as national income) - but this is a false measurement as it is not national income that pays national debt - it is govt income and so in the U.s National debt (which is $16.7trillion) is currently some 106% of GDP (which is $15.68trillion) but 668% of Govt income !! - No wonder they express it as a % of GDP lol ! In the U.k we have a national debt of £1.2trillion which as a % of GDP (which is £1.53trillion) is 78% - but 202% of govt income (which is £592 billion.) In the Uk at the current rate of paying down the national debt it will take us 400 years and in the U.s at the same rate - of their paying it back - 4000 years !!

In the U.k the conservative Chancellor (Finance minister) has proposed the daring idea that govt's should run surpluses of income over expenditure lol ! - in Chile and some other countries - this is enshrined in law with the threat of imprisonment for any politician that breaks it ! In the U.s they are addicted to spending and the deep ideological divide in that country is making it difficult to see how they can save their fiscal position from getting worse. I think this president is looking for a legacy that involves the middle east and ' obamacare ' and like all before him (Clinton being the only probably exception) - he will likely kick the real fiscal problem can down the road for some one else ?

G/L
ex member
  • #349,066
  • Oct 16, 2013 3:58pm Oct 16, 2013 3:58pm
Probably worth noting to all of us that use MT4 or anyone with 4HR charts that close on weird times...

The official 4hr charts that close on 5pm NY time, the time used on bloomberg terminals sees the 4hr chart as actually holding out and closing above 1.5920. the 1.5920 level is still in tact.
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  • #349,067
  • Oct 16, 2013 4:00pm Oct 16, 2013 4:00pm
Quoting bbmac
Governments tend to express national debt as a % of GDP (nominally known as national income) - but this is a false measurement as it is not national income that pays national debt - it is govt income and so in the U.s National debt is currently some 106% of GDP (which is $15.68trillion) but 668% of Govt income !! - No wonder they express it as a % of GDP lol ! In the U.k we have a national debt of £1.2trillion which as a % of GDP (£1.53trillion) is 78% of gdp but 202%of govt income (which is £592 billion.) In the Uk at the current rate of paying...

It doesn't really matter how governments express their national debt though, does it? If you trust how a government expresses something, you're naive, at best.

On the other hand, most of us express our debt as a portion of our income, combined with our assets. If someone wants to know your debt in order to give you a loan, they look at how much income you have and they also look at what assets you have.

Comparing the UK to the USofA when comparing assets is no competition. Just the fact that the USofA has way more land that could be sold, and has way more oil/gas and has way more gold, puts the USofA pretty far into the lead.

A time magazine article from 2006 estimates that gold, land and oil owned by the United States equals approximately 200 trillion in assets.
  • #349,068
  • Oct 16, 2013 4:10pm Oct 16, 2013 4:10pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} It doesn't really matter how governments express their national debt though, does it? If you trust how a government expresses something, you're naive, at best. On the other hand, most of us express our debt as a portion of our income, combined with our assets. If someone wants to know your debt in order to give you a loan, they look at how much income you have and they also look at what assets you have. Comparing the UK to the USofA when comparing assets is no competition. Just the fact that the USofA has way more land that could be sold,...

good point
  • #349,069
  • Oct 16, 2013 4:11pm Oct 16, 2013 4:11pm
A provocative post brings a thoughtful response - thank you - and you make a good point - but this is not how the sale of U.s treasury bonds works- ie they do not have such assets as their backstop guarantee - just the implicit promise to repay so long as the govt remains liquid- can you really imagine the U.s handing over Texas to China in the event of a true default ? and can you really imagine such a sequestration of assets by the govt from ' the people' in the land of the free in the event of ? This said with that amount of assets (but not necessarily liquid assets and not all owned by the govt - in fact far from it) that Time magazine article estimates from 2006 and that you mention below- perhaps the U.s govt is comfortable adding to the national debt ? I can see them scraping the faces off Mount Rushmore and putting Chairman Moa et al up there !

The only real comparison I was making between U.s and U.k is that politically (for now at least) we have a govt at least paying lip service to ending the annual govt deficit and with a target to do so, and to start paying down national debt, and to run govt surpluses...In the U.s - this seems a long way off.

G/L

Quoting Baggi
{quote} It doesn't really matter how governments express their national debt though, does it? If you trust how a government expresses something, you're naive, at best. On the other hand, most of us express our debt as a portion of our income, combined with our assets. If someone wants to know your debt in order to give you a loan, they look at how much income you have and they also look at what assets you have. Comparing the UK to the USofA when comparing assets is no competition. Just the fact that the USofA has way more land that could be sold,...
ex member
  • #349,070
  • Oct 16, 2013 4:18pm Oct 16, 2013 4:18pm
Quoting bbmac
A provocative post brings a thoughtful response - thank you - and you make a good point - but this is not how the sale of U.s treasury bonds works- ie they do not have such assets as their backstop guarantee - just the implicit promise to repay so long as the govt remains liquid- can you really imagine the U.s handing over Texas to China in the event of a true default ? and can you really imagine such a sequestration of assets by the govt from ' the people' in the land of the free in the event of ? This said with that amount of assets (but not necessarily...

You're right, I absolutely cannot see the USofA handing over any land to China to make up for some default on bonds.

However, China needs both Oil and Coal, which the USofA has in abundance. And if you remember, China doesn't own the 17 trillion in US debt, it owns about 1 trillion. The US has approximately 900 billion in gold, which almost completely covers the debt to China.

But we wouldn't need our land or our gold, because China needs our oil and our coal for power. And obviously we're not even talking about paying off the entire amount, no one expects that or does that, instead, we expect service on our debt. Like a mortgage, you pay it off over time. We would use our coal and our oil and natural gas.
  • #349,071
  • Oct 16, 2013 4:26pm Oct 16, 2013 4:26pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} Just the fact that the USofA has way more land that could be sold, and has way more oil/gas and has way more gold, puts the USofA pretty far into the lead. A time magazine article from 2006 estimates that gold, land and oil owned by the United States equals approximately 200 trillion in assets.
Switzerland doesn't have so much land, oil& gold like USA, but if you started buying USD/CHF from early '70s till now..well you'd be already broke, don't you think? On the other side, India and Russia also have land, oil, gold.. would you buy Indian rupee now? Does anyone remember Russian ruble during mid '90s ? The value of currencies is not based on empirical calculations mostly but it's rather psychological: confidence. Yes, confidence (among printing money, wars, econ.stability) is the main driver. Would someone rather buy ruble or swiss franc? Land vs confidence ? I agree about one thing - USD should/will strengthen vs pound. I think US should earn more confidence during following years and together with land, oil & gold..and it's reserve currency status ( no serious alternative in sight) which is again a matter of confidence..mostly.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #349,072
  • Oct 16, 2013 4:26pm Oct 16, 2013 4:26pm
Waiting for 5980-5990 to sell again.
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  • #349,073
  • Oct 16, 2013 5:52pm Oct 16, 2013 5:52pm
Quoting bikov
{quote} Switzerland doesn't have so much land, oil& gold like USA, but if you started buying USD/CHF from early '70s till now..well you'd be already broke, don't you think? On the other side, India and Russia also have land, oil, gold.. would you buy Indian rupee now? Does anyone remember Russian ruble during mid '90s ? The value of currencies is not based on empirical calculations mostly but it's rather psychological: confidence. Yes, confidence (among printing money, wars, econ.stability) is the main driver. Would someone rather buy ruble or swiss...

I couldn't agree with you more.

I wasn't trying to make a point about the value of the US Dollar and whether it will be stronger or weaker, so much as I was responding to your message about debt to GDP ratio.
  • #349,074
  • Oct 16, 2013 5:52pm Oct 16, 2013 5:52pm
Quoting polbanda
Waiting for 5980-5990 to sell again. {image}
Are you sure? We have 4 hr resistance below that.
It might not go above 1.5970
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  • #349,075
  • Oct 16, 2013 6:27pm Oct 16, 2013 6:27pm
Quoting Baggi
{quote} I couldn't agree with you more. I wasn't trying to make a point about the value of the US Dollar and whether it will be stronger or weaker, so much as I was responding to your message about debt to GDP ratio.
hm, i wasn't debating about debt/gdp ratio, i guess it was some other member here. ok it doesn't matter, appreciate your opinion but i had to argue about land and oil concept. about debt to gdp ratio- well if usa become oil net exporter it would be in much better condition than uk. but potential war conflicts and military bases around the world - they eat money a lot. but if we forget about fundamentals for second and look at the long term usd/chf chart, it's screaming for correction to upside. ups, this is cable forum so..sell cable . it failed at the gates of 1.63 it didn't even kissed it. it looks to me like lower high at W chart.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #349,076
  • Oct 16, 2013 7:04pm Oct 16, 2013 7:04pm
Sorry, it was bbmac I was responding to.
  • #349,077
  • Oct 16, 2013 7:05pm Oct 16, 2013 7:05pm
Quoting bikov
{quote} hm, i wasn't debating about debt/gdp ratio, i guess it was some other member here. ok it doesn't matter, appreciate your opinion but i had to argue about land and oil concept. about debt to gdp ratio- well if usa become oil net exporter it would be in much better condition than uk. but potential war conflicts and military bases around the world - they eat money a lot. but if we forget about fundamentals for second and look at the long term usd/chf chart, it's screaming for correction to upside. ups, this is cable forum so..sell cable ....

I think lower also. Senate is currently voting to reopen the government. Assuming that passes, we should see a big move in the cable.

I'm watching it live at the moment. Should be finished soon.
  • #349,078
  • Edited 8:53pm Oct 16, 2013 7:41pm | Edited 8:53pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Are you sure? We have 4 hr resistance below that. It might not go above 1.5970
He's confident with that's Points...

Price 1.5991 as Calculation 4/8 Octave in Murrey Math.
And Price 1.5979 as Pivot Point Fibo's.


NOTICE :
Candles in background as H4 Candles.
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Always looking the GREAT, never left GOOD Point...
  • #349,079
  • Edited 8:28pm Oct 16, 2013 7:45pm | Edited 8:28pm
Wed Asia lo. Now minor r1. Above can see short covered out again
1.59 still firm
.daily did not close under. Gbp got slammed by headlines twice from.it's rally this week


retails sales key trigger now.

key resistance zone 1.6018-1.6045/61

neutral zone 1.5970-1.6018 now.

bearish s t r zone below 1.5960.
  • #349,080
  • Oct 16, 2013 8:23pm Oct 16, 2013 8:23pm
GU pushing the limits again
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