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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #348,901
  • Oct 15, 2013 3:13am Oct 15, 2013 3:13am
i hope it will reach 1.5900 today
  • #348,902
  • Oct 15, 2013 3:31am Oct 15, 2013 3:31am
Morning all.

I manage a small bonds portfolio but trade a lot of GBPUSD as part of active FX risk hedging - or 'not hedging' if I believe by doing so I would add returns to my portfolio.

I found this GBPUSD forum and I'm keen to participate, looks very interesting.

My trades and views have a lifespan of 1-2 weeks, possibly longer if a big trend is obviously there. No real leverage involved, just moving from hedged to unhedged to overhedged depending on views of where the cable goes.

Now enough with introductions and in with my view: the GBPUSD now is very boring and with no real trend at the moment. I am short at 1.60005 but don't expect it to go too low (like 1.585 over the week or something)? The bias though is to the low side as still consolidating from the big rally from 1.48 to 1.62 we had over the last few months.

The cable has the advantage of being very volatile intraday when there are no real news coming in so that gives plenty of opportunities to assess exit or entry points. And at the moment there are no real news, inflation just at 2.7% as everyone expected, house prices are up as everyone expected.

Regards all and TTYL.
  • #348,903
  • Edited 5:51am Oct 15, 2013 3:37am | Edited 5:51am
Just got time to see for today in such very busy day of our Eid -ul-Azha. Happy Eid-Mubarak to everybody .
carry on shorts without care of last week .
Great going so far .Got euraud,gbpaud, gu & gold to the first /initial target levels to break for next good level for the swing & gso carrying out , eu still to go at the equivalent initial target down level .
so reach & break for the next target or actually previously target 1 in all for the bounce probable eg , eu target1 3450 to little down , gu 5885 breaks to 5718 target1, euraud 1.3854, gbpaud breaking 1.6497 to 1.6132,
gold breaking 1250 to 1220/1180 target etc.
Take care
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #348,904
  • Oct 15, 2013 4:29am Oct 15, 2013 4:29am
Quoting kerndc
{quote} what will you do if it smashes through your nicely drawn uppper resistance line within the next 2 1hr candles which will also be a new 4hr candle. `Because` i see a lower trendline that could offer support for bulls which i added to the chart of the upper trendline you drew. I think we are going to get a breakout in this area soon. And the ZOOMED in 1hr chart shows that your upper resistance trendline is indeed doing it job well done as of now. {image} {image}
I hope you did ride the boat as i advised you to?
  • #348,905
  • Oct 15, 2013 5:06am Oct 15, 2013 5:06am
That spike that happened a few hours back (4:30 NY time), fortunately I was asleep at that time.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #348,906
  • Oct 15, 2013 7:42am Oct 15, 2013 7:42am
This pair, GU, will be in a mest for some time. Propose stay away from this pair.
A and J series are better options.
Face both Win and Lose bravely
  • #348,907
  • Oct 15, 2013 8:05am Oct 15, 2013 8:05am
Quoting Fx-gtg
Closing weekly chart 2nd bearish candle.
and again cable bought before reaching 1.5900
  • #348,908
  • Oct 15, 2013 8:16am Oct 15, 2013 8:16am
calm down super-bears... we'll have our turn soon
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Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #348,909
  • Oct 15, 2013 8:19am Oct 15, 2013 8:19am
sell zone, again! i have taken a short at 1.5974
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #348,910
  • Oct 15, 2013 8:23am Oct 15, 2013 8:23am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
sell zone, again! i have taken a short at 1.5974 {image}

shorting in to support looks like, 5920 area
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #348,911
  • Oct 15, 2013 8:25am Oct 15, 2013 8:25am
Quoting RamsesII
{quote} shorting in to support looks like, 5920 area
could you please elaborate more what support are you reffering to? yes yesterday this level was support and most likely its turning to a resistance today
  • #348,912
  • Oct 15, 2013 8:29am Oct 15, 2013 8:29am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} could you please elaborate more what support are you reffering to? yes yesterday this level was support and most likely its turning to a resistance today
if this 1 hour candle, or the next one close below 1.5955, bears are activated aggresiverly
  • #348,913
  • Oct 15, 2013 8:38am Oct 15, 2013 8:38am
Quoting fxmasterdxb
{quote} could you please elaborate more what support are you reffering to? yes yesterday this level was support and most likely its turning to a resistance today
looks petty obvious, no?
Attached Image
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #348,914
  • Oct 15, 2013 8:41am Oct 15, 2013 8:41am
I don't see what the price has to do with technicals at the moment. its all fundamentals.

The Republicans and Democrats hailed a fresh new start and compromise in the morning, cable loses 1cent. the Tea party loons force ball less boehner to put forward a republican counter proposal less than 48 hours before the debt ceiling is hit and immediately cable jumps 80 pips.

How is this any more complicated than a default/no default trade?
  • #348,915
  • Oct 15, 2013 8:44am Oct 15, 2013 8:44am
Quoting RamsesII
{quote} looks petty obvious, no? {image}
Good day Sir!

Perhaps a good shorting target for fxmasterdxb?

  • #348,916
  • Oct 15, 2013 8:46am Oct 15, 2013 8:46am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Good day Sir! Perhaps a good shorting target for fxmasterdxb?

except it looks like his target is much lower from this area... i'd caution against that
Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability.
  • #348,917
  • Oct 15, 2013 8:47am Oct 15, 2013 8:47am
Quoting RamsesII
{quote} except it looks like his target is much lower from this area... i'd caution against that
Tx
  • #348,918
  • Oct 15, 2013 8:54am Oct 15, 2013 8:54am
Quoting RamsesII
{quote} except it looks like his target is much lower from this area... i'd caution against that
What I mean is that its the explanation which adds the value!
Thank you
  • #348,919
  • Oct 15, 2013 9:04am Oct 15, 2013 9:04am
So US shutdown in 2 days

  1. Senate believes they have made progress...
  2. Now they add three more deadlines to Jan 15?
  3. But at least they wont hit the ceiling and will pay the bills till then



Right then

Strange bunch



Tomorrow then

G/L

  • #348,920
  • Oct 15, 2013 9:17am Oct 15, 2013 9:17am
And short again @ 1.5980
That 4 hr 200 EMA is a bitch but time we'll probably slice through it.
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