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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #348,201
  • Oct 4, 2013 2:45pm Oct 4, 2013 2:45pm
Quoting Apfelsaft
H E L P !! PLEASE!! Yesterday I tried to trade the news. First Announcement did Good. But for the second, price went the other direction. I hedged the 3 "buy" Positions with many sell orders which I closed with profit. It is the first time EVER I hedged Positions. To avoid a margin call, if price moves further down on monday (gap), I had to hedge again. I dont now how to get out of my "hedge Situation" without loosing money! Does some have an idea, what to do? Here is my chart: Thanks {image}
That's what you get when you don't set stops.
Just take the loss NOW and don't do this again.
GU might go down another 270 pips next week to 1.5750.

The only hedge you can safely make is main trade in trend direction and small hedges for retraces.
All with stops.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #348,202
  • Oct 4, 2013 2:46pm Oct 4, 2013 2:46pm
Quoting Apfelsaft
H E L P !! PLEASE!! Yesterday I tried to trade the news. First Announcement did Good. But for the second, price went the other direction. I hedged the 3 "buy" Positions with many sell orders which I closed with profit. It is the first time EVER I hedged Positions. To avoid a margin call, if price moves further down on monday (gap), I had to hedge again. I dont now how to get out of my "hedge Situation" without loosing money! Does some have an idea, what to do? Here is my chart: Thanks {image}
i remeber my self at the same situation 2 years ago...never trade the news..if u hedge and u in equally situation beter close all if not..u may stuck with it..and willing for it will go up again and as i see it the way of this mofo is down..
anyway take care
when GOD brings you a challenge he also gives you the power to deal with it
  • #348,203
  • Oct 4, 2013 2:48pm Oct 4, 2013 2:48pm
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  • #348,204
  • Oct 4, 2013 3:03pm Oct 4, 2013 3:03pm
Quoting Bones
cool rejected at res {quote} {image} {image}

nice to see yur charts bro
  • #348,205
  • Oct 4, 2013 4:23pm Oct 4, 2013 4:23pm
The trading week has just ended.

The Monthly candle closed as a bullish thrust this week just closed, and the t/f remains in an opa range with no fractal swing created by it's close.100sma remains above the 200sma on this t/f with price closing below both.

The Weekly candle closes as an inverted hammer candle with a big bearish body as a result of ye4strday's and Today's fall from the 6259 weekly hi. There was an upside follow thru on last week's bullish thrust candle to that 6259 hi but then the supply kicked in and the fall came to the daily ascending t/line and 23.6% 5203-6259 at Friday's/the weekly lo. This t/f remains in an opa uptrend but no fractal swing has been created by the close of this week's candle. 100sma remains below the 200sma on this t/f and price closes above both. Weekly Pip range was 90% of the 20 week atr.

Friday's Daily candle closes as a bearish thrust and is a downside follow thru on the bearish inverted hammer master engulfing x 2 candle on Thursday whose bearish body engulfed Tuesday and Wednesday's bullish candles ion this t/f. 6259 is now a fractal swing HH on this t/f in it's still intact general opa uptrend. Price closes above it's 100 and 200 sma on this t/f and the 100 has just crossed above the 200. No fractal swing created by Friday's daily candle close. The Daily range was 174% of the 20 day atr which will be dragged up by this candle no doubt.

The 4hr and 1hr t/f's are bearish - 1hr is in a definite general opa downtrend and although it's 100sma is still above it's 200 it is pointing down and price closes below them both. 4hr has now seen a HH at 62509 followed by a HL,LH,HL,LH,L,LH and a LL (although not fractal) at Friday's/The weekly lo...so this t/f too is more bearish than bullish now. It's 100sma remains above it's 200 but price closes below the 100 on this t/f.

Summary: The weekly and last 2 daily candles suggest at least more downside but whether that will be enough to put the general opa uptrends on daily and weekly in doubt/at risk remains to be seen. Italy looks like it might survive politically, The U.s still on shut down and no budget deal yet with the debt ceiling negotiations still in the balance and deadline day of October 17th are the ' spectres at the feast ' still and affecting markets across all asset classes. Can the unthinkable happen and no deal re debt ceiling result ? U.s NFP release postponed for today of course will also be released at some point and with some Uk Manuf/Ind Prod data and Boe/Mpc decisions next week, as well as Fomc minutes - stateside - these too may affect near-term direction of this pairing...but the big one if it happens will no deal on the debt ceiling and even a 'relief ' move on a deal being struck...but if the enmity over the budget deal is anything to go by - this too could go to the wire. Doomsday commentators already talking of a 50% wipe out on equities if the unthinkable happens...with phrases like '...The financial crash of 2008 will seem like a walk in the park...' appearing in some commentary. Interesting times ahead and sentiment could ' turn on a sixpence' either strengthening prevailing sentiment or reversing it. Trade what you see - not what you think because in trading you have to be right at the right time - being right at the wrong time as many bears can testify re recent run up in this pairing, can be the same as being wrong !

G/L
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ex member
  • #348,206
  • Oct 4, 2013 4:28pm Oct 4, 2013 4:28pm
Quoting Apfelsaft
H E L P !! PLEASE!! Yesterday I tried to trade the news. First Announcement did Good. But for the second, price went the other direction. I hedged the 3 "buy" Positions with many sell orders which I closed with profit. It is the first time EVER I hedged Positions. To avoid a margin call, if price moves further down on monday (gap), I had to hedge again. I dont now how to get out of my "hedge Situation" without loosing money! Does some have an idea, what to do? Here is my chart: Thanks {image}
Sorry man, this is the fastest way to lose your account. The question even isn't if you're using stop loss orders or not, but you entered a trade without having a plan first.

Let me see. At first you entered some trades. Then after seeing they are losers, you're panicking and taking trades randomly (for some measly pips only) just trying to cover your loss (smaller trades for long and bigger trade for short). Now you may be in a position where you bought at high and sold at low. Worse trades ever a trader could take. Man, you have no freaking clue what you are doing. I suggest you stop right there and start reading and learning forex (overall trading) basics and most importantly - money management. There's no fast way to success.

I really hope you closed your short when it moved down 15-20 pips from your opening price.
  • #348,207
  • Edited 5:16pm Oct 4, 2013 4:40pm | Edited 5:16pm
You have not 'hedged' - you have simply locked in a loss on the 4 remaining trades you have open - there is a difference...the only way you can get out of this ' trade / series of trades ' with profit or at b/e is if you decide which direction is the greater probability and close the opposing trade (s,) and hope the greater probability plays out (if you are able to determine it from your analysis) and you recover the losing trades from this. You have not even averaged in - you have averaged down on the buy trades as price continued down and then tried to cover the 0.5buy/0.2buy/0.2buy trades with a 0.9sell trade way below those. Your only other solution is to average in and up on the buy position with another (s) if you think that direction is the greater probability, and your margin can stand it. All this said - it is probably better to close all positions, take the loss on the chin and learn the lesson.

For the avoidance of doubt you can only hedge on open positions when you sell above where you bought sufficient to at least cover dealing costs - you are then market neutral (or better) on these open positions. Conversely buy below where you sold sufficient to at least cover dealing costs - and you are then market neutral (or better) on these open positions; both regardless of what the market does, and will remain so - so long as you close them together. When you 'average in' (which you have not on the 3 buy positions you have open ) you should average up not down - ie increasingly greater volume as price drops if buying/rises if selling....if that is your strategy.

G/L



Quoting Apfelsaft
H E L P !! PLEASE!! Yesterday I tried to trade the news. First Announcement did Good. But for the second, price went the other direction. I hedged the 3 "buy" Positions with many sell orders which I closed with profit. It is the first time EVER I hedged Positions. To avoid a margin call, if price moves further down on monday (gap), I had to hedge again. I dont now how to get out of my "hedge Situation" without loosing money! Does some have an idea, what to do? Here is my chart: Thanks {image}
ex member
  • #348,208
  • Oct 4, 2013 5:11pm Oct 4, 2013 5:11pm
so today grab another 100 pips for basket have great weekend all and enjoy!!
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when GOD brings you a challenge he also gives you the power to deal with it
  • #348,209
  • Edited 6:23pm Oct 4, 2013 5:40pm | Edited 6:23pm
Quoting Apfelsaft
H E L P !! PLEASE!! Yesterday I tried to trade the news. First Announcement did Good. But for the second, price went the other direction. I hedged the 3 "buy" Positions with many sell orders which I closed with profit. It is the first time EVER I hedged Positions. To avoid a margin call, if price moves further down on monday (gap), I had to hedge again. I dont now how to get out of my "hedge Situation" without loosing money! Does some have an idea, what to do? Here is my chart: Thanks {image}
@bbc: Your view is (as always well put and quite gentle) I'm a 15 yr noob so lets see if I'm able let me explain a spot more

@Apfelsaft: CONGRATULATIONS! you are paying your first school fee's (we all do this, it hurts like hell) you are now on your way to becoming a very successful trader. Cause you are going to be as pissed as hell after reading these posts BUT my friend, you will never trade again without looking to see:

  1. What is my risk? Most professional traders NEVER risk more than 2% total for all live trades of their accounts.... DO YOU KNOW HOW TO CALCULATE YOUR RISK???
  2. Did you enter a high probability trade (I know you didn't, we didn't see what you did, you were just HOPING it would retrace after the big fall) other people noted bearish divergence on the RSI / Stochastics etc 3 days ago) and we bet the farm (all 2% that it would go down)... and I lost 4 trades trying to add to it BUT I've got 3 trades on 37% return on equity for a 2% risk locked in.
  3. None of us know which way the market will run, so we can't advise you ( you did not hedge, the distances between your buys and your sell will overwhelm your sell unless you add to it. TRADING RULE: NEVER ADD TO LOSERS EVER
  4. There are three market positions BUY / SELL AND CASH also known as its free to wait, i.e. if you don't know what to do you won't lose any money if you don't trade.
  5. On Monday, the market will open. Your account has a locked in loss. YOU WILL first close your biggest loss (AT A LOSS) then you will close your second loss (AT A LOSS) you will then close your third loss (AT A LOSS) you will then place a STOP LOSS @ 1.6050 on your sell trade. YOU WILL NOT MOVE THIS SL till the trade is green.... Then you will move the SL to break even, then you will pray that myself and KillerWhale are right and TP @ whatever silly levels we put in out charts.

and again CONGRATULATIONS now you know why money management / Risk reward and ALWAYS TRADE WITH A STOP LOSS MATTERS.... you have now graduated FX primary school


AND Go to http://www.babypips.com/ then trade

ITS FREEE TO WAIT


EDIT: It takes a man to admit he is wrong and ask for help (some respect...)

  • #348,210
  • Oct 4, 2013 7:26pm Oct 4, 2013 7:26pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} @bbc: Your view is (as always well put and quite gentle) I'm a 15 yr noob so lets see if I'm able let me explain a spot more @Apfelsaft: CONGRATULATIONS! you are paying your first school fee's (we all do this, it hurts like hell) you are now on your way to becoming a very successful trader. Cause you are going to be as pissed as hell after reading these posts BUT my friend, you will never trade again without looking to see: What is my risk? Most professional traders NEVER risk more than...
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #348,211
  • Oct 4, 2013 8:11pm Oct 4, 2013 8:11pm
Quoting Bones
cool rejected at res {quote} {image} {image}
Don't normally trade currencies on more than 1 hour but took a look at monthly and here's my view. Think there is room for a lot of gain by the end of the year. Think will fall to support then boom all the way up again. My chart not as pretty as yours but it is 2 am lol!
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  • #348,212
  • Oct 4, 2013 10:02pm Oct 4, 2013 10:02pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} @bbc: Your view is (as always well put and quite gentle) I'm a 15 yr noob so lets see if I'm able let me explain a spot more @Apfelsaft: CONGRATULATIONS! you are paying your first school fee's (we all do this, it hurts like hell) you are now on your way to becoming a very successful trader. Cause you are going to be as pissed as hell after reading these posts BUT my friend, you will never trade again without looking to see: What is my risk? Most professional traders NEVER risk more than...
Great post.

Could you elaborate on point #2? A 37% return on equity is impressive, but to achieve that with a 2% risk is over 15:1 risk/reward. Right?

I only profit like 0.25% - 2% on trades tops...this week I got everything right and up 3.5% and closed all trades before weekend.

Do I just need to be taking bigger positions?
  • #348,213
  • Oct 4, 2013 11:20pm Oct 4, 2013 11:20pm
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} Bet the farm on this one.... (Long may it last) Have a good weekend... G/L {image}
What do you suggest to enter on monday? I closed my position on friday at 1.6059.
  • #348,214
  • Oct 5, 2013 12:07am Oct 5, 2013 12:07am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} @bbc: Your view is (as always well put and quite gentle) I'm a 15 yr noob so lets see if I'm able let me explain a spot more
Your first vouch is in!
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #348,215
  • Oct 5, 2013 1:36am Oct 5, 2013 1:36am
Gidday Traders

Looking forward to next week.

Just trying to get started in this pair

with small trades.Got a long 160 to 1642 TP

Carrying a couple lemon shorts

Hope fully this down move will clear them out

People talking 168 etc:nerd:

Just need to figure out the next couple off months
  • #348,216
  • Oct 5, 2013 2:33am Oct 5, 2013 2:33am
I have posted my analysis for POUND for coming days, for those who are interested here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post7007805
  • #348,217
  • Oct 5, 2013 3:24am Oct 5, 2013 3:24am
Quoting Purple
I have posted my analysis for POUND for coming days, for those who are interested here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post7007805
You think it will go back to 1.6160?
  • #348,218
  • Oct 5, 2013 3:27am Oct 5, 2013 3:27am
Quoting JimmyC
{quote} @bbc: Your view is (as always well put and quite gentle) I'm a 15 yr noob so lets see if I'm able let me explain a spot more @Apfelsaft: CONGRATULATIONS! you are paying your first school fee's (we all do this, it hurts like hell) you are now on your way to becoming a very successful trader. Cause you are going to be as pissed as hell after reading these posts BUT my friend, you will never trade again without looking to see: What is my risk? Most professional traders NEVER risk more than...
good advise, i would second the "do not add to losing positions" it's easier to execute new strategy when there's no position in the market.

i seems to find more traders here are getting matured in trading and i feel good on this development. I seems to attached with this thread because of less people posting nonsense like on the other threads.

why i only aiming for just 57xx rather than 55xx is due to if price able to find 55xx, there will be new bias development in technical side and by moving that low, price will somehow provide distortion in the monthly technical view, thus proving that continuation is in progress. However, judging by latest development in monthly, it is too early to say that, and i will stick to more bullish after the correction is done so the line in the sand is about 57xx area.

Ok mate, i will catch up with you all later if i have the time. Nice seeing your constructive post and hope new traders can develop their trading skills in here.

Good job and well done.

See you all later, all the best!
  • #348,219
  • Oct 5, 2013 3:55am Oct 5, 2013 3:55am
Quoting Ivanqus
{quote} You think it will go back to 1.6160?
Depends on that data, NFP is not yet out for this month.
  • #348,220
  • Oct 5, 2013 4:08am Oct 5, 2013 4:08am
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