Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Agreed, seems this old girl just doesn't know how to say "no"

and for those who may ask why no enter long if more up is coming.
it's because if i enter long right now. cable more likely create a top and fast dive back

Butting right up against that descending weekly trendline. It is around 1.619 (Does not look like it on a weekly chart but does on smaller TF)

Could it be the saviour for the bears,

here's hoping......

has been a strong move up this cycle. Correction now depends on retails buying this and how many stoploss and MG it can collect

Retail wont buy this, no way.

I remember back at the begining of March when we had fallen all the way to 1.48xx and it was a simlar situation to this. Retail were long (of course) and then one day that first week in march some major buyers decided it was the right time to exit those shorts and reverse.

Waiting for the same thing which im sure is coming.

I think they have pushed it high enough in preparation for the downturn. Retailers will jump heavily long on any drop to 1.5950 and likely get burned just the same as it falls below 1.55

its the same story over and over again.

I just got a short here 61.68 sl just 25 pips above. and will prob go long when it hit around 61.00

gl everyone, will move sl to be soon !

I'm looking for 1.60 for this week.

Hi Stephane
I closed 4 shorts to lighten my load.We got 1 more day of Sept so I don't expect major pull down before.Sept has traditionally been strong month for pound and gradually descending after.
I see Feds cutting some QE soon Oct or by Dec for sure.So I don't see cable going past 2012 high of 6381.British economic news is slightly better but that's just Sept unemployment from 7.8 to 7.7 and that could change dramatically for worse as winter months are coming.
Regards

I shorted here at 1.6165. This 30 pip will either trap traders into taking shortss or st retrace zone

Davit i agree with ur analysis but 1.62 was a psychlogical level back in dec last year and we are just 30 pips away

Its 86.6 fib Scott Carney's all importance fib number.Its a high confluence zone but much depends how far Banks are willing to liquidate shorts.

Out at BE

Do you think a good short at 1.63.38 next res mate?

Thanks!

looking around at pound charts i think it is safe to say that it is over bought. The GC chart maybe the craziest.

Whether it is here and now, my 1.619 trend line, the 1.62 whole number or the 1.63xx 2012 high im fairly certain we are about to turn around.

anyone got the balls to call 1.618 the top?

one of my favorite technique of taking position on resistance and support is to wait or just go along with the flow of pullback or higher hi.

Ask yourself, if we short at 1.6 , our intention is 1.55? if we short at 1.61, our intention is 1.55? if we short at 1.62 , our intention is 1.55? if that's the case. Do not hurry into building position against the flow of trend.

Breakout already from 1.5750, any short from here in near terms is likely to challenge resistance turns support channel on that level. As weekly and daily are bullish and RSI are very strong. I will not attempt to build shorts, as the flow of momentum is up and this week there's high lot of data and events. Whatever position now has uncertainty as one cannot know whats going to happen later on. - > going against the trend with previous candles are retracement, and bound to have many layers of support until a fundamental tide changes. And gbpusd has been making higher hi since 1.5750. Just like how gbp fall from 1.63 into 1.48 earlier this year. GBP is known to be a straight horse or penguin, its very stubborn and 1 directional most of the time.

Shorts can be dd since 1.57 and under, why nv pick to go with the flow of trend since 1.57? where dd would be gains.

Trend is up -> trade what we see 1st, agree to what's happening in the market. Speculation of whats going to happen is just opinion, market have both bull and short opportunity in different time frame.

Short can only prevail after a slam down of RSI dived below 70 again and closed under 70, where divergence can really be spotted. Don't believe me? go look back when RSI crossed 70, it just shoot up upon price action closed. Want short? wait for RSI to re-dive under 70, price level will be almost the same.

So what's wait? Meaning, since we have the intention to short it back, it's not ideal to keep building shorts and loading shorts , either averaging/martingale is not healthy. Wait for a daily bear minimum, sell below daily support. A weekly supply zone is ideal to load short as long no higher hi. But apparently GBPUSD closed at top of resistance channel, where supply is limited. Over here good to load short if stop loss is tight to prevent catching a top.

But wait for hour 4 or daily bear to close and kill the last bull at top of resistance channel, for safer approach. Since shorts are looking for 1.55 or 1.57, its never too late to enter later on when sellers and take profit takers are seen. As we may have a double top.

weekly close above 1.6155 = bye bye. look at weekly chart, it can go to 1.63. Monthly is a marabozu in the making = big fat buyers.

wait for daily to have the smallest bull body and let it fail to close at 1.6165 , then wait for hour 4 bear to reveal itself.

align with RSI dived back under 70, and macd or 50 sma to come nearer to bear to cross under and take control.

1.5955 is our previous support, sell stops below that last support to send it down.

Buy when there's a higher lo, sell when there's a lower hi, don't hop in too early, price may re-test a few times and its never too late to make an entry, those early takers are just picking top or bottom and going against the flow of momentum, since most position has been seating there for 2 weeks and still not leaving for 1.55 train. So just wait.

On the other hand, how is dollar bull? when it ain't making new high on usdjpy 103, and been losing out to gbpusd and eurusd when they just make new higher hi. nzd/usd and aud/usd may also be going up from RTS level after few months of ranging at btm. Buy the strongest, sell the weakest.

I have gave my advice, previously.




just sharing my experience. gl trading to all.

It looks a lot higher than that, H1 and H4 are strong Long for now............

Wouldn't surprise me, but waiting for a break of ascending TL

No Here...........

GC is bonkers right now. U/C is $0.03 off parity, yet G/C is 1.666x vs 1.616x G/U. 200 pips!