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  • #6,061
  • Sep 24, 2013 7:44am Sep 24, 2013 7:44am
well I cant find those long trends netting 50,000 pips and up at the moment.
and your example of cable: exactly what I mean..........maybe a bit of short term profits if you`re lucky or very experienced, but not going anywhere fast.

I`m not saying that this is not a good system, but you got to be really patient sometimes.
we`ve had years of low volatility, so maybe better get a proper job during those times?
  • #6,062
  • Sep 24, 2013 10:38am Sep 24, 2013 10:38am
bump
Staying in my lane...
  • #6,063
  • Sep 25, 2013 1:13am Sep 25, 2013 1:13am
Quoting yonnie
well I cant find those long trends netting 50,000 pips and up at the moment.

Check out GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY weekly charts. Uptrend roughly during the last year, about 4000 pips each.
Now let's focus on GBP/JPY and assume you only stacked positions during the primary movement up, which is about 3000 p in magnitude. It is followed by about 1000 p retrace, leaving any positions in the first 2000p area intact. Assuming an even distribution (or close to that), the average position there would be worth about 3000p now. In order to get 50k pips from there, you only need to deploy 17 positions in the span of 6 months and 2000 pips. That's more than 100 p apart and less than 3 positions a month. What if you manage to deploy 50 there?
  • #6,064
  • Sep 25, 2013 3:41am Sep 25, 2013 3:41am
Quoting yonnie
well I cant find those long trends netting 50,000 pips and up at the moment. and your example of cable: exactly what I mean..........maybe a bit of short term profits if you`re lucky or very experienced, but not going anywhere fast. I`m not saying that this is not a good system, but you got to be really patient sometimes. we`ve had years of low volatility, so maybe better get a proper job during those times?
Hi all dear mates:

Yonnie, i respect your comment but i disagree with you.
That Graeme is showing is not a trading system. Its a market understanding.
Maybe market dont move 50.000 pips a month or a year in a single and consolidate trend but you dont need it.
You are talking about cable. Ok, the chart attached shows a consolidated trend. Every blue line shows a buy entry. Every cross shows a losser trade. I captured 3000 pips in this trend. Only in this pair, only in this month.
Now imagine you can do with 10 or more pairs.
I dont need any more.

Regards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh1.png Size: 103 KB
That which you give to others, life will return it in spades
  • #6,065
  • Sep 25, 2013 5:36am Sep 25, 2013 5:36am
Thanks for your replies everyone. So Barbossa and Jaquemate, are you still trading milllipede style, and is it worth spending time reading through the thread and 'demoing' it. I do not want to spend so much time reading through the thread and 'demoing' for months only to find out it 's not what it's hyped up to be. There's been quite few threads on the forum where I have spent days/weeks reading through thousands of posts only to discover towards the end that people (including the thread starter sometimes) no longer use the system/method because it is no longer effective. Many thanks
  • #6,066
  • Sep 25, 2013 6:21am Sep 25, 2013 6:21am
Quoting danjuma
Thanks for your replies everyone. So Barbossa and Jaquemate, are you still trading milllipede style, and is it worth spending time reading through the thread and 'demoing' it. I do not want to spend so much time reading through the thread and 'demoing' for months only to find out it 's not what it's hyped up to be. There's been quite few threads on the forum where I have spent days/weeks reading through thousands of posts only to discover towards the end that people (including the thread starter sometimes) no longer use the system/method because...
To put it short - this thread is by far the best piece of material on forex that I have ever read. After reading it, I'm no longer interested in trading systems. I'm convinced that they do not work in the long run. I'm still interested in new trading ideas (I like to keep my mind open), but I don't look for a hard, rule-based system. To me, the thread is worth reading even only for that new perspective. But... at the same time I do not doubt it's effectiveness. I need to just open any weekly chart to see its power.
  • #6,067
  • Sep 25, 2013 6:41am Sep 25, 2013 6:41am
Quoting Barbossa
{quote} To put it short - this thread is by far the best piece of material on forex that I have ever read. After reading it, I'm no longer interested in trading systems. I'm convinced that they do not work in the long run. I'm still interested in new trading ideas (I like to keep my mind open), but I don't look for a hard, rule-based system. To me, the thread is worth reading even only for that new perspective. But... at the same time I do not doubt it's effectiveness. I need to just open any weekly chart to see its power.
Many thanks Barbossa. Replies like these are encouraging.
  • #6,068
  • Sep 25, 2013 8:14am Sep 25, 2013 8:14am
Some years ago when i started forex i blew some accounts. Reading some books and with more practique I become a zero game trader. Some times I won and some times a loose but don’t blew accounts any more….
But it wasn’t enough for me.
When I really changed my market understanding is when I started to read Graeme´s thread.
I compile it in a pdf. file all Graeme´s post and I printed all this information in two big books. I read several times all Graeme´s post and now, i sure you that Graeme becomes me not only in a better trader even a better person. Im sure of it.
Most traders search threads of systems that gives they hard rules to follow for gain money and they focusing their efforts blindly to scalping and day trading. They are not taking advantage of true trend potential and really they don’t understand how the big manager founds works every day.
The most difficult point to understand for 99% of traders is that trading is …… S.I.M.P.L.E.
When you don’t know a city… a town…. a forest…. or any territory…. you need a map.
But when you back to same city.. town o forest again then you don’t need a map any more.
When you look at a chart without indicators you see a naked territory and you can do two things. Search for a map (indicator) that gives you information about territory but if you know the territory you don’t need any map ....
For me price action dont change for decades, only change volatily market. Price go UP then buy. Price go DOWN then sell. Only you must to learn when to trade and when not trade. When a trader knows it he can do it againd and againd and again.... to the end of times.
Its not easy but its simple.
Graeme said it a dozen times.
I recommended anybody read this thread and don’t waste time reading books and courses.. searching for delayed indicators..... etc.

Regards.


That which you give to others, life will return it in spades
  • #6,069
  • Sep 25, 2013 8:42am Sep 25, 2013 8:42am
Quoting Jaquemate
Some years ago when i started forex i blew some accounts. Reading some books and with more practique I become a zero game trader. Some times I won and some times a loose but don’t blew accounts any more…. But it wasn’t enough for me. When I really changed my market understanding is when I started to read Graeme´s thread. I compile it in a pdf. file all Graeme´s post and I printed all this information in two big books. I read several times all Graeme´s post and now, i sure you that Graeme becomes me not only in a better trader even a better person....

Many thanks for your post Jaquemate!
  • #6,070
  • Sep 25, 2013 8:50am Sep 25, 2013 8:50am
Jaque

Playing devils advocate here.

Cable has been a one way street for the last 2-3 months. Anybody here using a Donchian 20 day breakout system would have made a fortune with only 1 minutes work a day. Trends make fortunes that's the good news (assuming one follows them), therefore the opposite must be true, lack of trends lose people fortunes, at least the ones betting on trends.

Nobody denies that this strategy is great if a) there are trends, and b) one is a good short term trader but if/when the markets go sideways or even worse there is a longer term trend in force but price keeps reacting back most of the previous swing, that's where this strategy will be the downfall of all but the very best short term traders. Markets are perverse remember, they love to try to shake the majority off BEFORE they make the real move.

Summary: Without many good trends it's odds-on this strategy won't pay over the long term UNLESS you're already an excellent short term trader (or about to become one) but as I said above if you're already a good short term trader you don't really need the hassle of this strategy, just make your ticks every week the easy way....
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,071
  • Sep 25, 2013 10:07am Sep 25, 2013 10:07am
Humbly I think 90% traders must change the market perception.
90-95% trader blow accounts at less of a year and they follow looking for the same things and follow doing the same cause they don’t understand the:
MARVELLOUS SIMPLICITY OF THIS GAME.
And never can understand this cause they think that gain money is difficult and they think that only a neural program of the best computer of the worl with millions of variables can do it. Then. Why they will continue trading for years, losing or winning a ridiculous annual percentage after tons of hours in front computer.
Donchian Channel and tons of indicators. Why?. Do you become rich with Donchian Channel?. Yes. Well. Finally anybody find The trading formula all world was looking for.
I don’t know Donchian Channel variables. I don’t need it. I hope Mr. Donchian become a rich man and he have millions traders following.
Mate, if i have a 80 winning percentage and a 1:10 or more r:r then probabilities are my best friend.
You talk about sideways market that happens 70% of time. This is the drawdown time.
You cant do anything with this. I accept. But I must know when sideways market is coming. This is one of most difficult part of trading.
An example:
If I loss 10 trades with a 20 pips average in a sideways market in a month I loss 200 pips.
Now I only need a trending 250 pips week to cover this loss. Only 5 winning trades of 150 pips average and that’s all.
But how to do it?. Yeap. That is the question. That is Graeme is showing.
The difficult is know that you are in a sideways market and don’t overtrade. If you learn this then you are minimizing risking.
In a trending market I only need to know THREE THINGS:
1.MARKET DIRECTION: BUY OR SELL.
2.WHEN TO TRADE (THE MOST IMPORTANT AND THE TRADING KEY). Timing entry. Yep. Momentum.
3.RISK IM ASSUMING.
In a post Graeme talked about losing streaks.
Loss, loss, loss, loss, Be, loss, loss, losss. NP until here… But when momentum happens… buy, buy, buy, buy, buy, buy……… or sell sell sell sell until trend change and recollected profits to basket.
1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1 all loss ok (70% time aka DD).NP. I accept. Is part of game. Then trend is coming and the trend is my friend ……..20,19,18,17,16,15,14,13,12,11,10,9,8,7,…. Until trend change and come back to start. Use diversificate if you want.
If you keep positions opened for long time probabilities of price come back you increase but you are streching profit how when you strech a rubber.... You must know when release rubber before hit in the face.
When I see one open trade and see how price go against me I see only one loss.
When I see price go with me I see multiples open positions and my balance increasing exponentially.

Really that its all. Well its not all…….. but it’s the core of this game.

INCREDIBLE BUT TERRIBLY TRUE.

That which you give to others, life will return it in spades
  • #6,072
  • Sep 25, 2013 10:17am Sep 25, 2013 10:17am
Quoting Jaquemate
Humbly I think 90% traders must change the market perception. 90-95% .....

Good to see you back mate Hope things are well.
.
  • #6,073
  • Edited Sep 26, 2013 3:58am Sep 25, 2013 10:24am | Edited Sep 26, 2013 3:58am
Quoting max pain
{quote} Good to see you back mate Hope things are well.
Hi mate:

Last months i was very very busy with my main job and my family.
You know this situation and you know i cant dedicate time for trading untill now. Im sorry. Some times a person planificate things but live have its own plan.
You understand me.
Kindest Regards mate.
That which you give to others, life will return it in spades
  • #6,074
  • Sep 25, 2013 11:41am Sep 25, 2013 11:41am
J

The point I was making, and it has nothing to do with Donchain or any other type of trading strategy, is that a market that goes only one way, such as your Cable example, is not a good example of how to make money via a strategy that relies on trends because it's too good.

This game is probably more about keeping losses small and mentally manageable than anything. Therefore overall success will depend more on defensive trading, keeping losses manageable, than the occasional text book straight line move with few retracements. Anyone can make excellent returns via such price action but most will probably struggle when the trading gets tough. So that's what you need to make this strategy a long term success - the ability to tough it out during the periods when price action gets choppy and even small trends are hard to come by.
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,075
  • Sep 25, 2013 11:57pm Sep 25, 2013 11:57pm
Quoting Calculus
J The point I was making, and it has nothing to do with Donchain or any other type of trading strategy, is that a market that goes only one way, such as your Cable example, is not a good example of how to make money via a strategy that relies on trends because it's too good. This game is probably more about keeping losses small and mentally manageable than anything. Therefore overall success will depend more on defensive trading, keeping losses manageable, than the occasional text book straight line move with few retracements. Anyone can make excellent...

Calculus, that's a valid point you bring here, but may I remind that pipEASY also stressed many times the importance of capital protection? He showed some tricks on that. Avoid the markets, remember? Is there a better way to avoid a range than to walk away from this market after a loss and refuse to come back until the price has actually moved?
  • #6,076
  • Sep 26, 2013 12:28am Sep 26, 2013 12:28am
Barbs/Jaque

We're all on the sane page here. G strategy is an excellent one, there's no doubt about that. But to get it to work, even though simplicity is critical, isn't easy. That really is what I'm trying to get across.

The other problem, which others havealluded to within this thread, is that if one is a good short term trader, which you need to be to get the strategy to pay (overtime), then you might not actually need this trading strategy. If you are a good short term trader then my advice would be to run 2 strategies, a short term one and a long term one via G's method. That would be the best of both worlds and would make you a killer trader
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,077
  • Sep 26, 2013 12:50am Sep 26, 2013 12:50am
Quoting Calculus
Barbs/Jaque We're all on the sane page here. G strategy is an excellent one, there's no doubt about that. But to get it to work, even though simplicity is critical, isn't easy. That really is what I'm trying to get across.
I agree on that. I never said it's easy.


Quoting Calculus
The other problem, which others havealluded to within this thread, is that if one is a good short term trader, which you need to be to get the strategy to pay (overtime), then you might not actually need this trading strategy. If you are a good short term trader then my advice would be to run 2 strategies, a short term one and a long term one via G's method. That would be the best of both worlds and would make you a killer trader
I also agree on that. By the way, doesn't that idea have a certain "pipEASY" feel to it? Zooming in, realistic expectations, choosing proper targets, taking short-term profits on most of the shorter-term entries, leaving a few open, trying for the home run? I believe that's how G actually trades.
  • #6,078
  • Sep 26, 2013 1:30am Sep 26, 2013 1:30am
Quoting Barbossa
{quote} I agree on that. I never said it's easy. {quote} I also agree on that. By the way, doesn't that idea have a certain "pipEASY" feel to it? Zooming in, realistic expectations, choosing proper targets, taking short-term profits on most of the shorter-term entries, leaving a few open, trying for the home run? I believe that's how G actually trades.
I know that you know that it's not easy Barbs!

Yes, I think you're right on your second point, G's method is all about flexibility, and so should all trading methods if you think about it. Markets are moving beasts, sometimes they're agressive, sometimes passive, sometimes a bit of both. We should therefore adapt our methods and trading tactics, but of course that's not easy as well.
Road To Wisdom? To err and err and err again, but less and less and less...
  • #6,079
  • Sep 30, 2013 8:27am Sep 30, 2013 8:27am
Lot of things going on on my personal life guys,so i don't have too much time to post here and focus on trading.Here is some general view of what i've done latly.All loses have been covered.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30-9-2013 6-09-45 General overview.jpg Size: 557 KB


Overall i am still in loss,but i am covering,especially from a big mistake that i did few months ago.

Regards
Tim
  • #6,080
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:24am Sep 30, 2013 9:24am
Hi Timos:

I see you diversificate in USDJPY leaving a +-140 pips gap between buy and sell positions.
Can i ask you what criteria are you using to diversificate?.
May be 140 pips is so small gap for diversificate.

The problem of diversificate is when do it.

One very very SIMPLE and VISUAL way to diversificate is using pivot lines.

Depending of target you can use monthly or weekly pivots.

At chart attached horizontal black lines are weekly pivots.

Really is very easy to follow the rules.

Regards.
That which you give to others, life will return it in spades
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