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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #37,081
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:11pm Sep 19, 2013 4:11pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} No way we go straight to 106. I think with a bounce like this it will come back down to retest 99 and then 98.50 before it does anything else. {image}
I was bearish Jcole I don't see a retrace I think we may have had it when we went back to 99.171 I think that was it it looks like the next stop is 100 round. I misjudged this move completely. It looks very bullish right now
  • #37,082
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:15pm Sep 19, 2013 4:15pm
Can someone help me out here? BOJ Gov speaking tonight @10:30pm any thoughts other than more QE blah blah causing weaker Yen? I would like to set up my trade properly but am not sure how to. Thank you.
  • #37,083
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:23pm Sep 19, 2013 4:23pm
Quoting Squall_pka1
{quote} Hm... Perhaps the stoch you see in M15. Sure the reversal is occuring. But for me its looks like a retracement for the bullish move. Thinking to close my buy order and wait for retracement for enter another order... As for me, the major trend still bullish for UJ...
After analyzing the H1 for the past few hours, it smells like a slight retracement from the earlier up-swing, but all this sideways/ranging nonsense is killing me....isn't giving me much to go off
  • #37,084
  • Sep 19, 2013 5:40pm Sep 19, 2013 5:40pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I think we've seen the lows. I see it as possible we see a flush to 97.25-ish but really I don't expect 98 to crack. Below 98, seriously loud alarm bells ring for bulls; below 97.25, it's probably game over and we're into stop and reverse territory. But that's just the way I see it at the moment. No crystal balls here.

Great call...I'm definitely one to admit when wrong and I definitely was...thankfully I trailed stop and didn't load anymore shorts....
  • #37,085
  • Sep 19, 2013 6:22pm Sep 19, 2013 6:22pm
LOL, too kind.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #37,086
  • Sep 19, 2013 6:31pm Sep 19, 2013 6:31pm
For some reason I got caught up in the hype of trying to call the top...this market is clearly bullish as it has been for some time. I might as well make the easy money following the momentum rather than trying to call a top.
  • #37,087
  • Sep 19, 2013 6:32pm Sep 19, 2013 6:32pm
looks like BOJ QE + rise in the Nikkei is winning the battle vs Fed QE

This fed move may have put the dollar to its weakest point...so I think u/j can only go up from here.

But it may have problems staying above 100 unless there is some major dollar strengthening and I'm not sure where the dollar strength is going to come from.
  • #37,088
  • Sep 19, 2013 7:32pm Sep 19, 2013 7:32pm
New Positions:

SLD 3 SEP26 0.00985 Put Fut. Option (6J4) 0.0000080
SLD 2 SEP26 0.0103 Call Fut. Option (6J4) 0.0000060

Existing Positions:

SLD 2 SEP20 0.0098 Put Fut. Option (6J3) 0.0000140 (entered Sept 13 @ 1:20AM EST)

Position Summary:

My existing short option position is going to expire worthless tomorrow afternoon.

My new position is looking to exploit the current range of about 97 to 101 in the USD/JPY pair. I have gone with a 3:2 short PUT/CALL position ratio. I will go long or short the underlying 6J future should the market approach these strikes, in that case looking for it to expire ITM followed with assignment – in this case the net position would be completely flat.

The added short option on the PUT side is because I feel should the market hit the strike, hence I would be short 3 6J futures, followed by a quick exit before expiry – now I’m just short 3 futures (all other options expired worthless) is acceptable in terms of risk because my overall market bias is long USD/JPY (which if you’re trying to figure out is short 6J future).
  • #37,089
  • Sep 19, 2013 7:39pm Sep 19, 2013 7:39pm
Quoting Doboy408
looks like BOJ QE + rise in the Nikkei is winning the battle vs Fed QE This fed move may have put the dollar to its weakest point...so I think u/j can only go up from here. But it may have problems staying above 100 unless there is some major dollar strengthening and I'm not sure where the dollar strength is going to come from.
I agree they are winning vs US but they also intervene. Can someone explain the weakness we are experiencing in the JPY? I suspect it's BOJ.
  • #37,090
  • Sep 19, 2013 8:25pm Sep 19, 2013 8:25pm
Quoting Greener
{quote} I agree they are winning vs US but they also intervene. Can someone explain the weakness we are experiencing in the JPY? I suspect it's BOJ.


It’s not the BOJ, probably macro hedge funds adjusting positions due to the non-taper. It’s also probably related to domestic institutions and investors selling JPY for Asian EM currencies, or EM currencies in general, again related to the Feds decision not to taper right now – you commonly know this as the “carry trade”.

You just need look and see how EM equity markets have been doing over the last couple days, all that money going in was originally denominated in USD and JPY. Remember when EM markets sold off in June and July? It was no “technical” reason USD/JPY went all the way down to the 93 zone.
  • #37,091
  • Sep 19, 2013 8:30pm Sep 19, 2013 8:30pm
Quoting seandean
{quote} It’s not the BOJ, probably macro hedge funds adjusting positions due to the non-taper. It’s also probably related to domestic institutions and investors selling JPY for Asian EM currencies, or EM currencies in general, again related to the Feds decision not to taper right now – you commonly know this as the “carry trade”. You just need look and see how EM equity markets have been doing over the last couple days, all that money going in was originally denominated in USD and JPY. Remember when EM markets sold off in June and July? It was no...
Thank you, Seandean. I appreciate.
  • #37,092
  • Sep 19, 2013 8:40pm Sep 19, 2013 8:40pm
After Kuroda Speak The U/J will be Fly like Bernanke Speak ?
Rebate Everyday XM forex broker with VIP partner
  • #37,093
  • Sep 19, 2013 10:09pm Sep 19, 2013 10:09pm
not going Up or just retrace ?
  • #37,094
  • Sep 19, 2013 10:15pm Sep 19, 2013 10:15pm
Quoting alam88009
not going Up or just retrace ?
Kuroda is speaking.. let see how PA now.. quiet or swing or give you a direction
  • #37,095
  • Sep 19, 2013 10:35pm Sep 19, 2013 10:35pm
Anyone else here now also getting certificate security warnings when viewing this page from their Android smartphone?
  • #37,096
  • Sep 19, 2013 10:38pm Sep 19, 2013 10:38pm
Quoting k3nshinz3139
{quote} Kuroda is speaking.. let see how PA now.. quiet or swing or give you a direction

UJ my opinion is still bullish
hold my long @ 98.333
  • #37,097
  • Sep 19, 2013 10:42pm Sep 19, 2013 10:42pm
Quoting alam88009
{quote} UJ my opinion is still bullish hold my long @ 98.333
If you have your trading plan, just stick with your plan.. Long term for UJ can climb to 110.. IMO..

Weekly candle is strong bullish.. (Hammer)
  • #37,098
  • Sep 19, 2013 10:43pm Sep 19, 2013 10:43pm
Quoting k3nshinz3139
{quote} If you have your trading plan, just stick with your plan.. Long term for UJ can climb to 110.. IMO.. Weekly candle is strong bullish.. (Hammer)

yes its bullish for UJ and bearish for aud ( I guest)
  • #37,099
  • Sep 20, 2013 1:08am Sep 20, 2013 1:08am
Quoting k3nshinz3139
Weekly candle is strong bullish.. (Hammer)
I'd just like to point out the week isn't over, yet. And: we have an election on Sunday in Germany, with the outcome far from clear. There could be a major disruption over the weekend.
Fail better.
  • #37,100
  • Sep 20, 2013 1:15am Sep 20, 2013 1:15am
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