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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #37,061
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:36am Sep 19, 2013 1:36am
Quoting iNSIELD
I gotta say even with this bounce I'm not convinced of sustained upmove usually moves this strong this fast dont last I see a test of 97.3 near term before next substantial move up
I doubt this pairs will even break the strong support at 97.7
  • #37,062
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:45am Sep 19, 2013 1:45am
Quoting iNSIELD
I gotta say even with this bounce I'm not convinced of sustained upmove usually moves this strong this fast dont last I see a test of 97.3 near term before next substantial move up

Its all depends on today US Unemployment claims and Housing data...if possible then we may see 99.55...
  • #37,063
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:53am Sep 19, 2013 1:53am
Quoting multi888
{quote} Its all depends on today US Unemployment claims and Housing data...if possible then we may see 99.55...
don't think its as important until nearer the next FOMC taper now seems to be out of the question sustained movement will be prolly because of JPY weakness not USD strength
  • #37,064
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:03am Sep 19, 2013 2:03am
and agreed stops for short USD/JPY should b above 99.65
  • #37,065
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:21am Sep 19, 2013 2:21am
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} How's that short doing mate?
........
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  • #37,066
  • Sep 19, 2013 5:26am Sep 19, 2013 5:26am
Well my long position went pretty well last night...bought at 98.023 and sold right at 99. I predicted a corrective retracement to the 50% fib level right before opening of NY. I closed the position before Ny opened because I'm not sure of the carnage that may ensure today, but I think unemployment data will be favorable and housig data for august may be better. Although mortgages rates have increased and may have some negative effects on the demand for housing I feel cash investors are still dominating the arena. But het wtf do I know I got an economics degree from a state school.
  • #37,067
  • Sep 19, 2013 6:25am Sep 19, 2013 6:25am
Quoting idaliamoore7
Well my long position went pretty well last night...bought at 98.023 and sold right at 99. I predicted a corrective retracement to the 50% fib level right before opening of NY. I closed the position before Ny opened because I'm not sure of the carnage that may ensure today, but I think unemployment data will be favorable and housig data for august may be better. Although mortgages rates have increased and may have some negative effects on the demand for housing I feel cash investors are still dominating the arena. But het wtf do I know I got an...
Congrats on the good trade
  • #37,068
  • Sep 19, 2013 7:03am Sep 19, 2013 7:03am
This is unreal today..
  • #37,069
  • Sep 19, 2013 7:06am Sep 19, 2013 7:06am
101/101.5 is by tomorrow.
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #37,070
  • Sep 19, 2013 7:13am Sep 19, 2013 7:13am
Quoting Goldflake
101/101.5 is by tomorrow.
How did you come up with that number? I am regretting for not buying and going long at 98 earlier on.
  • #37,071
  • Sep 19, 2013 7:26am Sep 19, 2013 7:26am
My crystal ball says....Destination: 107.5 or thereabouts. Timeframe: not a clue.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #37,072
  • Sep 19, 2013 8:31am Sep 19, 2013 8:31am
Quoting Boy Wonder
My crystal ball says....Destination: 107.5 or thereabouts. Timeframe: not a clue.
I don't know about 107...it seemed at 102-103 their market crashed last time. I would love to see that though. Ideally 110 would be phenomenal!
  • #37,073
  • Sep 19, 2013 9:06am Sep 19, 2013 9:06am
I don’t think you’re going to see any trades north of 102, even in the most bullish scenario before the big announcement (some say confirmation) of the Japanese retail sales tax increase, and possibly supplementary stimulus package on October 1. If this isn’t in your calendar, add it.

That’s not to say the announcement will begin another, new leg of JPY weakness, it might actually do the reverse depending on who you ask.

I’m bullish the pair, however anyone looking for 105-110 trading soon is going to be upset. I don’t think this is going to come until Fed tapering starts, which is dollar positive, and probably (now) keyed in for the December meeting if all goes well with the US economy.

There are so many fundamental factors in play; honestly all of them need to line up perfectly for this to explode beyond the May high. The probability is low, but not zero, so if your trading short-term shorts of USD/JPY which is probably the “fear trade” right now (market is heavily long, so a downside move would be large and quick) look to exist right after the move taps resistance. That seems to be what happened yesterday, fast move down and it slowly grinded right back up.

I’m going to start posting my trades; I usually have one 6J options trade per week with the possibility of the future thrown in at any point depending on how the price moves. My first posted trade will be later today, around the time of the Nikkei open. My trades are based on strategy, not so much the technical situation and should be considered advanced – the option trade is more than likely opened as “naked”.

Stay tuned.
  • #37,074
  • Sep 19, 2013 11:27am Sep 19, 2013 11:27am
if we don't see a daily close above 99.381 this could be a false move
  • #37,075
  • Sep 19, 2013 11:29am Sep 19, 2013 11:29am
I think there'a at least a 50-50 we'll see 107.5.
Note: I didn't say when. But perhaps I should have said, not in the near future. But in time, yes, I think so. It is easily within the bounds of possibility that a currency can move 7% up over a period of months, maybe 3, maybe more, maybe less, and then retrace the whole lot in the same time period, leaving it 6-12 months later exactly where it started, but having busted about 10000 forex accounts in the interim.
It is clearly the case that the US is closer to tightening than the Japs; or at least, it appears that way to me. I would welcome presentation of the opposing view.
Similarly, it is clearly the case that the Japs face incredible demographic pressures; or at least.... blah blah.
Similarly, it is clearly the case that the Japs face an incredible debt burden, although I'm aware most of it is held domestically.
Seriously, I'd welcome opposing views; I'm no expert here.

The US may be 1 stellar NFP away from tapering being back on, and this time without coming back off. Maybe, maybe not. I have no crystal ball and it could just as well be 12 months away, or more. But nobody's going to ring a bell and say, "tapering's coming, get your $ longs on cheap while the DX is at 80.5". By the time that NFP print comes, the $ will already be up 4-5%. People will start shorting at some point thinking "too far too fast" and then it goes on and puts another 5% on, and we're back at 1.22 on the eurusd or whatever. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose eh.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #37,076
  • Sep 19, 2013 11:50am Sep 19, 2013 11:50am
Well it looks like a reversal is occurring...seems like the person who said resistance was at 99.5 was right it bounced the bollinger bands right at that point and has been retreating ever since. Stochastics dropping like a dead man's heart beat and getting close to the thirty, parabolic sar indicating a sell position for the first time since last night's drop....
  • #37,077
  • Sep 19, 2013 12:23pm Sep 19, 2013 12:23pm
UJ Talking here..........Weekly Chart

If you take the 800 pips wave 1 completed, and then you take that same 800 pips, wave 5 is going to make, that is the 106 area.............
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9_19_13 UJ weekly.JPG Size: 243 KB
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  • #37,078
  • Sep 19, 2013 12:29pm Sep 19, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting idaliamoore7
Well it looks like a reversal is occurring...seems like the person who said resistance was at 99.5 was right it bounced the bollinger bands right at that point and has been retreating ever since. Stochastics dropping like a dead man's heart beat and getting close to the thirty, parabolic sar indicating a sell position for the first time since last night's drop....
Hm... Perhaps the stoch you see in M15. Sure the reversal is occuring. But for me its looks like a retracement for the bullish move. Thinking to close my buy order and wait for retracement for enter another order...

As for me, the major trend still bullish for UJ...
  • #37,079
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:48pm Sep 19, 2013 1:48pm
Quoting forexalien
UJ Talking here..........Weekly Chart If you take the 800 pips wave 1 completed, and then you take that same 800 pips, wave 5 is going to make, that is the 106 area............. {image}
No way we go straight to 106. I think with a bounce like this it will come back down to retest 99 and then 98.50 before it does anything else.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Short.PNG Size: 418 KB
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  • #37,080
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:02pm Sep 19, 2013 2:02pm
Quoting Jgcole83
{quote} No way we go straight to 106. I think with a bounce like this it will come back down to retest 99 and then 98.50 before it does anything else. {image}
I never said straight there, that would be Air Mail, this is the final destination for the cruise from Africa to Hawaii........
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