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EurAnalysis Kindergarten 24 replies

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EurAnalysis

  • #69,881
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:13am Sep 19, 2013 2:13am
Quoting forexalien
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post6974044 EU strong long
GM - yes, I am recently long and Cable too with SLs locking in some profits....I wonder if the either of the fib expansions will get hit
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #69,882
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:13am Sep 19, 2013 2:13am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yep. Are you excited?
I'm doomed alcoholic - what can I say..
Actually EU could go for a strong correction before attacking the 3700 highs. 3570's is the place to look for reversal.. UJ showing bullish signs too - looks like yetserdays highs will be taken rather sooner than later
69
  • #69,883
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:39am Sep 19, 2013 2:39am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} I'm doomed alcoholic - what can I say.. Actually EU could go for a strong correction before attacking the 3700 highs. 3570's is the place to look for reversal.. UJ showing bullish signs too - looks like yetserdays highs will be taken rather sooner than later
The retail crowd is still piling into euro shorts. I think we get another slaughter today to clean them out.
My attempts to short last night didn't work, but I still have a pending long at 1.3453 with a tight stop (1.3443)
Now we wait and see.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,884
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:39am Sep 19, 2013 2:39am
Hi Guys,

Quick question please.... what approach is used for measuring Gartley patterns projection? I mean once you have established that you have a pattern in place (Ex: bullish butterfly) so you have buy signal, where and how do you calculate where price will go? Is it used with FIB levels and if so from which points should you being placing your Fibo to accomplish this.

Hope i explained my question ok...lol

Thanks,
Cheers!!
  • #69,885
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:55am Sep 19, 2013 2:55am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The retail crowd is still piling into euro shorts. I think we get another slaughter today to clean them out. My attempts to short last night didn't work, but I still have a pending long at 1.3453 with a tight stop (1.3443) Now we wait and see.
Where are you getting retail sentiment data from..?
69
  • #69,886
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:10am Sep 19, 2013 3:10am
EJ count update

apologies no chart - too busy

EJ has put in a new high above the 132.87 May top. I still interpret this as an irregular B wave meaning a C wave of some devastation will follow in due course.

However, the B wave is a WXY structure and is currently in Y targeting 135.50 at a minimum. B waves can extend to 138% of the A wave that preceded them - in this case it puts the potential high of wave B at 138.40. Just in case you had some short lower down like myself. I manually closed to end the agony and take advantage of the prrinting spree
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #69,887
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:23am Sep 19, 2013 3:23am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The retail crowd is still piling into euro shorts. I think we get another slaughter today to clean them out. My attempts to short last night didn't work, but I still have a pending long at 1.3453 with a tight stop (1.3443) Now we wait and see.

hi PipTrapper,

I have little experience with analysing EU and i hope you understand my intention for saying this: Based on an EW count that is still valid I've got EU going to 1.60 in the coming months - the matching chart for DXY shows it must go to 69.00. A quick look at the MACD and RSI shows EU has only now put in subwave 3 of 3 and sub5 of 3 still to follow and then wave 5. I would not short this based on assessments of CoT or feelings of an "overextended uptrend". The USD is going one way and the Fed is clearly fine with that.

in the same breath - i am reluctant to join any trends now until some form of retracement shows us better direction and give clear entry signals
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #69,888
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:31am Sep 19, 2013 3:31am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} Where are you getting retail sentiment data from..?
Many places, but then I discovered one place with all of them

http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/p/sentiment.html
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,889
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:32am Sep 19, 2013 3:32am
Quoting venzen
EJ count update apologies no chart - too busy EJ has put in a new high above the 132.87 May top. I still interpret this as an irregular B wave meaning a C wave of some devastation will follow in due course. However, the B wave is a WXY structure and is currently in Y targeting 135.50 at a minimum. B waves can extend to 138% of the A wave that preceded them - in this case it puts the potential high of wave B at 138.40. Just in case you had some short lower down like myself. I manually closed to end the agony and take advantage of the prrinting spree...

Hi Vensen

Man the EUR/YEN Beast is going mental

look at it go
  • #69,890
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:35am Sep 19, 2013 3:35am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Many places, but then I discovered one place with all of them http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/p/sentiment.html
whats up with IT guys liking black backgrounds in web design!?
69
  • #69,891
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:37am Sep 19, 2013 3:37am
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi PipTrapper, I have little experience with analysing EU and i hope you understand my intention for saying this: Based on an EW count that is still valid I've got EU going to 1.60 in the coming months - the matching chart for DXY shows it must go to 69.00. A quick look at the MACD and RSI shows EU has only now put in subwave 3 of 3 and sub5 of 3 still to follow and then wave 5. I would not short this based on assessments of CoT or feelings of an "overextended uptrend". The USD is going one way and the Fed is clearly fine with that. in...
Hi Venzen. Anything is possible. I just have an extremely hard time justifying a Euro at 1.60 when the Eurozone needs that like a hole in the head. Economically speaking a 1.60 euro will kill the EZ economy. Maybe that's what is going to happen.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,892
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:39am Sep 19, 2013 3:39am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} whats up with IT guys liking black backgrounds in web design!?
It was a fad for a while.
What is the fad now? Purple?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,893
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:39am Sep 19, 2013 3:39am
Quoting Likerty
{quote} whats up with IT guys liking black backgrounds in web design!?

It is because they are in fear of snow-blindeness
  • #69,894
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:40am Sep 19, 2013 3:40am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The answer is simple. I mentioned it last year during the "QE3 or No QE3" debate we were having and now it seems I may have been correct. Back then I said if Benny comes out with QE3, he's going to ease the Fed into a corner he's not going to be able to exit from very easily. I also was adamantly saying that the US economy did not need any more QE. I was right about that too. All QE has done is give business and consumers a sense of insecurity. Without QE the 10 year rates would be hovering between 4 and 6% and the economy would be staging...
PT FOR FED CHAIRMAN !!!!!
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #69,895
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:40am Sep 19, 2013 3:40am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} It is because they are in fear of snow-blindeness
Change it to purple to shut him up
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,896
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:45am Sep 19, 2013 3:45am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} PT FOR FED CHAIRMAN !!!!!
You couldn't pay me enough. Even if you assigned the entire Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader team to be by my side at all times tending to my every wish, I would still say no
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,897
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:49am Sep 19, 2013 3:49am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes you're right. This is ridiculous. The absolute worst case I was thinking of was 5 billion in tapering. At least that way the Fed would have kept some credibility. This way with no tapering, forward guidance means nothing anymore. I have decided now that we will probably not see any tapering until a new Fed president is appointed. Good night Ambar.
The incredible aspect of what the FED did is that they spent weeks preparing the grounds for a taper. Emerging Markets and currencies tanked badly, interest on the 10 Yr rose hard and finally stabilized, the stock market absorbed it well and was ready to continue higher. All the hard work was done and they threw it all away!! It went for naught !!

Now they have to start from scratch and with zero credibility. They lost their cool when they saw the rise in long term rates. This means they will not be able to start tapering in the future unless a new Chairman with a brain and common sense is installed. If Yellen is named FED Chair, God help us all...
Observation is the path to discovery.
  • #69,898
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:54am Sep 19, 2013 3:54am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} The incredible aspect of what the FED did is that they spent weeks preparing the grounds for a taper. Emerging Markets and currencies tanked badly, interest on the 10 Yr rose hard and finally stabilized, the stock market absorbed it well and was ready to continue higher. All the hard work was done and they threw it all away!! It went for naught !! Now they have to start from scratch and with zero credibility. They lost their cool when they saw the rise in long term rates. This means they will not be able to start tapering in the future unless...
Exactly. A taper now will definitely mean extreme volatility in both bonds and equities (and of course currencies by extension)

Let's see what the minutes say when they are released. I am willing to bet that there was significant dissent. Time will tell.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69,899
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:57am Sep 19, 2013 3:57am
Quoting Alorente
{quote} The incredible aspect of what the FED did is that they spent weeks preparing the grounds for a taper. Emerging Markets and currencies tanked badly, interest on the 10 Yr rose hard and finally stabilized, the stock market absorbed it well and was ready to continue higher. All the hard work was done and they threw it all away!! It went for naught !! Now they have to start from scratch and with zero credibility. They lost their cool when they saw the rise in long term rates. This means they will not be able to start tapering in the future unless...

i view it as preconceived deception. All the groundwork was "forward guidance" and then they did this. Its daylight robbery - a mass mugging - and by crying wolf they have turned sentiment against them.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #69,900
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:00am Sep 19, 2013 4:00am
Quoting venzen
{quote} i view it as preconceived deception. All the groundwork was "forward guidance" and then they did this. Its daylight robbery - a mass mugging - and by crying wolf they have turned sentiment against them.
Was it you who said the market will now choose their own path instead of giving in to the Fed? If so,
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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