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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #37,041
  • Sep 18, 2013 12:08pm Sep 18, 2013 12:08pm
I've been short this pair from 99.13 my stop is BE +2....I could be very wrong but my tp is at 94.10 and that's where I would like to start loading longs for the long haul.
  • #37,042
  • Sep 18, 2013 12:36pm Sep 18, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting josh1125
I've been short this pair from 99.13 my stop is BE +2....I could be very wrong but my tp is at 94.10 and that's where I would like to start loading longs for the long haul.
94.10; that's ambitious.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #37,043
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:36pm Sep 18, 2013 1:36pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} 94.10; that's ambitious.
Based on weekly there is an ascending triangle that seems to be completing..the demand zone around 94.10 is fresh and I'm sure stacked with buy orders which should break the consolidation area
  • #37,044
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:37pm Sep 18, 2013 1:37pm
Target reached..., haven't loaded longs.

Attached Image
Fail better.
  • #37,045
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:00pm Sep 18, 2013 2:00pm
Quoting LarryDarrell
Target reached..., haven't loaded longs. {image}
short target reached for me too - right at the upward trend line. Can't say I'm looking to go long anytime soon though
  • #37,046
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:21pm Sep 18, 2013 2:21pm
Hmm how bout at least support @ 96.0 before 94?
  • #37,047
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:27pm Sep 18, 2013 2:27pm
I dont' think YEN will go that far, 95-96 will be the bottom area by end of this year,because it's to weak!
Believe what you see instead of what you think!
  • #37,048
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:27pm Sep 18, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting josh1125
{quote} Based on weekly there is an ascending triangle that seems to be completing..the demand zone around 94.10 is fresh and I'm sure stacked with buy orders which should break the consolidation area
I think we've seen the lows. I see it as possible we see a flush to 97.25-ish but really I don't expect 98 to crack. Below 98, seriously loud alarm bells ring for bulls; below 97.25, it's probably game over and we're into stop and reverse territory. But that's just the way I see it at the moment. No crystal balls here.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #37,049
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:40pm Sep 18, 2013 2:40pm
Not counting the whiskers 98 seems reasonable support at the moment.
There is another strong support at 97, definitely a point of interest.

However consider this, what is going to happen on the Nikkei in a few hours?
The FED has just lifted every major index in the US.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #37,050
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:08pm Sep 18, 2013 4:08pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I think we've seen the lows. I see it as possible we see a flush to 97.25-ish but really I don't expect 98 to crack. Below 98, seriously loud alarm bells ring for bulls; below 97.25, it's probably game over and we're into stop and reverse territory. But that's just the way I see it at the moment. No crystal balls here.
Think again! Short, but no target in-sight...what effect do you think Kuroda's statement will have on UJ?
  • #37,051
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:25pm Sep 18, 2013 4:25pm
Quoting Exodus
Not counting the whiskers 98 seems reasonable support at the moment. There is another strong support at 97, definitely a point of interest. However consider this, what is going to happen on the Nikkei in a few hours? The FED has just lifted every major index in the US.


The Nikkei futures already point to a technical rally (defined as >1% positive). In most cases a stronger yen (lower USD/JPY) will put downwards pressure on the index, but in this case, the positive effect of delayed tapering more than makes up for that.

You’re going to see one of two things over the course of today’s JPY session, the Nikkei rallies even further, which should pull the yen down (higher USD/JPY) or the rally stalls and perhaps fades a bit due to an “even stronger” yen (even lower USD/JPY).

I suppose my analysis is as good as anyone else’s here, but those expecting to see sub-95 USD/JPY over the next few days, or even this month are probably dreaming. I making this claim based on fundamentals, not technical analysis.

In other words, if your short USD/JPY and in it for the “long run” you essentially betting against the BOJ – and here traditionally your worried about your brokers
  • #37,052
  • Edited 5:28pm Sep 18, 2013 4:51pm | Edited 5:28pm
Quoting Emanuel
{quote} Think again! Short, but no target in-sight...what effect do you think Kuroda's statement will have on UJ?
That's fine; I'm happy to buy your USDJPY. You're betting against the trend, and against the fundamentals.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #37,053
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:56pm Sep 18, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting seandean
{quote} I suppose my analysis is as good as anyone else’s here, but those expecting to see sub-95 USD/JPY over the next few days, or even this month are probably dreaming.
The same thought did occur to me. Oh well.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #37,054
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:10pm Sep 18, 2013 5:10pm
I think most here trade spot, but I’ve been selling weekly PUT options on the 6J futures (CME JPY futures) around the equivalent of the USD/JPY 101 and 102 zone in terms of strikes. It’s been very profitable as it’s been encountering “extremely heavy” resistance in this zone.

It’s one strategy for those long-biased USD/JPY traders to enact while we seem to be ranging in this 102 – 95 zone.

Probability is on your side.
  • #37,055
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:24pm Sep 18, 2013 10:24pm
Hello US/JPY

Well any ideas on this pair

would be great to see it go back to the 101 etc

some talk about down before up again:nerd:
  • #37,056
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:36pm Sep 18, 2013 10:36pm
Quoting eliteincome
Hello US/JPY Well any ideas on this pair would be great to see it go back to the 101 etc some talk about down before up again:nerd:

the range to get long where ? here ?
  • #37,057
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:14pm Sep 18, 2013 11:14pm
Quoting alam88009
{quote} the range to get long where ? here ?


The bias is up; however the days of a smooth, fluent trend upwards (think earlier this year) is over, probably for good.

If you also think it’s also going up, it’s probably not so important where you get in – it might go lower, or this might be as low as it gets, nobody knows – but you can probably say anything south of 99 is a good entry, with “at least” one near-term retest of 100.

Some people believe Fed tapering was going to drive it to new multi-year highs, I disagree; remember in May it was at those highs before it dropped, quickly and ruthlessly, because of the mere suggestion of tapering.

The initial move earlier today was USD/JPY negative, but we are already seeing a bounce back up, will it last and rally more, I don’t know, but it certainly could be the start of another test of that multi-year high, though 100 has to come (and go) first.

Why not go long USD/JPY “right here” without using much leverage, this is a medium term trade that at some point before the year ends will re-test at least 100.

The big bonus comes here; if you have access to CME 6J options write PUTS (equal to your long, in either spot or future) weekly at a strike around the 100.50 to 102 area. This will generate you income if it never actually “settles” at or above this target. If it does, you’re assigned, but that’s okay, you’re hedged with the long spot or (short) future.

If USD/JPY keeps bouncing around in a tight range the options act as short-term profit, while your still long USD/JPY for a move back up to at least 100.50 (or whatever option strike you selected).

This is a professional strategy for someone who is bias long USD/JPY.
  • #37,058
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:19pm Sep 18, 2013 11:19pm
Quoting seandean
{quote} The bias is up; however the days of a smooth, fluent trend upwards (think earlier this year) is over, probably for good. If you also think it’s also going up, it’s probably not so important where you get in – it might go lower, or this might be as low as it gets, nobody knows – but you can probably say anything south of 99 is a good entry, with “at least” one near-term retest of 100. Some people believe Fed tapering was going to drive it to new multi-year highs, I disagree; remember in May it was at those highs before it dropped, quickly...

I think I want to take long if the price above 99 ? just testing long with small lot @ 98.156 SL BE + 1
  • #37,059
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:18am Sep 19, 2013 3:18am
Quoting Emanuel
{quote} Think again! Short, but no target in-sight...what effect do you think Kuroda's statement will have on UJ?
How's that short doing mate?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #37,060
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:22am Sep 19, 2013 3:22am
I gotta say even with this bounce I'm not convinced of sustained upmove usually moves this strong this fast dont last I see a test of 97.3 near term before next substantial move up
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