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USD/JPY Discussion 7 replies

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USD/JPY Discussion

I've been short this pair from 99.13 my stop is BE +2....I could be very wrong but my tp is at 94.10 and that's where I would like to start loading longs for the long haul.
Quoting josh1125
I've been short this pair from 99.13 my stop is BE +2....I could be very wrong but my tp is at 94.10 and that's where I would like to start loading longs for the long haul.
94.10; that's ambitious.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} 94.10; that's ambitious.
Based on weekly there is an ascending triangle that seems to be completing..the demand zone around 94.10 is fresh and I'm sure stacked with buy orders which should break the consolidation area
Target reached..., haven't loaded longs.

Attached Image
Fail better.
Quoting LarryDarrell
Target reached..., haven't loaded longs. {image}
short target reached for me too - right at the upward trend line. Can't say I'm looking to go long anytime soon though
Hmm how bout at least support @ 96.0 before 94?
I dont' think YEN will go that far, 95-96 will be the bottom area by end of this year,because it's to weak!
Believe what you see instead of what you think!
Quoting josh1125
{quote} Based on weekly there is an ascending triangle that seems to be completing..the demand zone around 94.10 is fresh and I'm sure stacked with buy orders which should break the consolidation area
I think we've seen the lows. I see it as possible we see a flush to 97.25-ish but really I don't expect 98 to crack. Below 98, seriously loud alarm bells ring for bulls; below 97.25, it's probably game over and we're into stop and reverse territory. But that's just the way I see it at the moment. No crystal balls here.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
Not counting the whiskers 98 seems reasonable support at the moment.
There is another strong support at 97, definitely a point of interest.

However consider this, what is going to happen on the Nikkei in a few hours?
The FED has just lifted every major index in the US.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} I think we've seen the lows. I see it as possible we see a flush to 97.25-ish but really I don't expect 98 to crack. Below 98, seriously loud alarm bells ring for bulls; below 97.25, it's probably game over and we're into stop and reverse territory. But that's just the way I see it at the moment. No crystal balls here.
Think again! Short, but no target in-sight...what effect do you think Kuroda's statement will have on UJ?
Quoting Exodus
Not counting the whiskers 98 seems reasonable support at the moment. There is another strong support at 97, definitely a point of interest. However consider this, what is going to happen on the Nikkei in a few hours? The FED has just lifted every major index in the US.


The Nikkei futures already point to a technical rally (defined as >1% positive). In most cases a stronger yen (lower USD/JPY) will put downwards pressure on the index, but in this case, the positive effect of delayed tapering more than makes up for that.

You’re going to see one of two things over the course of today’s JPY session, the Nikkei rallies even further, which should pull the yen down (higher USD/JPY) or the rally stalls and perhaps fades a bit due to an “even stronger” yen (even lower USD/JPY).

I suppose my analysis is as good as anyone else’s here, but those expecting to see sub-95 USD/JPY over the next few days, or even this month are probably dreaming. I making this claim based on fundamentals, not technical analysis.

In other words, if your short USD/JPY and in it for the “long run” you essentially betting against the BOJ – and here traditionally your worried about your brokers
Quoting Emanuel
{quote} Think again! Short, but no target in-sight...what effect do you think Kuroda's statement will have on UJ?
That's fine; I'm happy to buy your USDJPY. You're betting against the trend, and against the fundamentals.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
Quoting seandean
{quote} I suppose my analysis is as good as anyone else’s here, but those expecting to see sub-95 USD/JPY over the next few days, or even this month are probably dreaming.
The same thought did occur to me. Oh well.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
I think most here trade spot, but I’ve been selling weekly PUT options on the 6J futures (CME JPY futures) around the equivalent of the USD/JPY 101 and 102 zone in terms of strikes. It’s been very profitable as it’s been encountering “extremely heavy” resistance in this zone.

It’s one strategy for those long-biased USD/JPY traders to enact while we seem to be ranging in this 102 – 95 zone.

Probability is on your side.
Hello US/JPY

Well any ideas on this pair

would be great to see it go back to the 101 etc

some talk about down before up again:nerd:
Quoting eliteincome
Hello US/JPY Well any ideas on this pair would be great to see it go back to the 101 etc some talk about down before up again:nerd:

the range to get long where ? here ?
Quoting alam88009
{quote} the range to get long where ? here ?


The bias is up; however the days of a smooth, fluent trend upwards (think earlier this year) is over, probably for good.

If you also think it’s also going up, it’s probably not so important where you get in – it might go lower, or this might be as low as it gets, nobody knows – but you can probably say anything south of 99 is a good entry, with “at least” one near-term retest of 100.

Some people believe Fed tapering was going to drive it to new multi-year highs, I disagree; remember in May it was at those highs before it dropped, quickly and ruthlessly, because of the mere suggestion of tapering.

The initial move earlier today was USD/JPY negative, but we are already seeing a bounce back up, will it last and rally more, I don’t know, but it certainly could be the start of another test of that multi-year high, though 100 has to come (and go) first.

Why not go long USD/JPY “right here” without using much leverage, this is a medium term trade that at some point before the year ends will re-test at least 100.

The big bonus comes here; if you have access to CME 6J options write PUTS (equal to your long, in either spot or future) weekly at a strike around the 100.50 to 102 area. This will generate you income if it never actually “settles” at or above this target. If it does, you’re assigned, but that’s okay, you’re hedged with the long spot or (short) future.

If USD/JPY keeps bouncing around in a tight range the options act as short-term profit, while your still long USD/JPY for a move back up to at least 100.50 (or whatever option strike you selected).

This is a professional strategy for someone who is bias long USD/JPY.
Quoting seandean
{quote} The bias is up; however the days of a smooth, fluent trend upwards (think earlier this year) is over, probably for good. If you also think it’s also going up, it’s probably not so important where you get in – it might go lower, or this might be as low as it gets, nobody knows – but you can probably say anything south of 99 is a good entry, with “at least” one near-term retest of 100. Some people believe Fed tapering was going to drive it to new multi-year highs, I disagree; remember in May it was at those highs before it dropped, quickly...

I think I want to take long if the price above 99 ? just testing long with small lot @ 98.156 SL BE + 1
Quoting Emanuel
{quote} Think again! Short, but no target in-sight...what effect do you think Kuroda's statement will have on UJ?
How's that short doing mate?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
I gotta say even with this bounce I'm not convinced of sustained upmove usually moves this strong this fast dont last I see a test of 97.3 near term before next substantial move up
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